The Curious Case of John Lackey

            On December 16, 2009, the Boston Red Sox signed pitcher John Lackey to a five year, 82.5 million dollar contract. The deal included a 3.5 million dollar salary bonus, an 18 million dollar salary in 2010, and 15.25 million from 2011-2014. The contract also included a vesting option at the league minimum salary (about five hundred thousand dollars) for 2015 if Lackey missed significant time because of a pre-existing elbow injury. Lackey missed the 2012 season following Tommy John surgery on that elbow.

            After the “Fried Chicken and Beer” fiasco of 2011 and Lackey’s subsequent surgery, his contract seemed like a total bust. It was another example why giving five year contracts to older pitchers rarely work out. Yet when Lackey returned to the Red Sox in 2013, he pitched effectively. His season culminated with a 6 2/3 inning pitching performance in Game 6 of the World Series. A closer look at Lackey’s pitching performance since Tommy John surgery suggests that the deal might not be a total bust after all. (All Stats courtesy of Fangraphs)

	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
2010	215	6.53	3.01	4.40	3.85	3.9
2011	160	6.08	3.15	6.41	4.71	1.6
2013	189.1	7.65	1.90	3.52	3.86	3.2
2014	53	8.88	1.87	3.57	3.22	1.3
Career Avg	-	7.13	2.63	4.04	3.88	39.0

           

In 2013 and 2014, Lackey has dramatically improved his K/9 rate. He has transformed himself from an average strikeout pitcher to a great one. His walk rate declined from over 3 batters per nine innings to well under two. His FIP (for an explanation see here) has similarly climbed from average to something slighter better than that.

            What accounts for Lackey’s improvement? In 2013, he arrived at Red Sox camp in much better shape than in previous years. While losing weight certainly helped, it cannot account for such a striking transformation. In doing some research, I looked at Lackey’s pitch usage over his time on the Red Sox and noticed some pretty big changes.

	Four Seam Fastball %	Two Seam Fastball %	Cut-Fastball %	Slider %	Curve %	Changeup %
2010	15.2	4.8	41.9	9.2	24.1	4.6
2011	15.1	2.4	34.7	22.1	17.7	7.8
2013	52.0	4.9	29.3	0.9	10.4	2.6
2014	59.0	8.1	20.9		9.7	0.7

           

            In 2010 and 2011, Lackey threw his four seam fastball only about 15% of the time. Instead he relied on his cutter, curveball, and a slider (a pitch he no longer throws according to PitchF/x data).  Since 2013, Lackey has leaned heavily on his four seamer. He has cut back on his cut fastball and curveball and incorporated his two-seam fastball more into his repertoire.

            Since Lackey has relied on his four seamer more, what has that done for the effectiveness of his other pitches?

	Hitters  AVG/OBP/SLG against Two Seam Fastball	Hitters  AVG/OBP/SLG against Cut Fastball	Hitters  AVG/OBP/SLG against Curveball
2010	.371/.463/.543	.258/.323/.395	.266/.335/.410
2011	.350/.409/.500	.312/.397/.523	.336/.400/.462
2013	.205/.220/.308	.226/.280/.359	.233/.243/.438
2014	.100/.250/.200	.204/.250/.347	.353/.389/.412

            In 2011, major league hitters smacked Lackey around like a rag doll. Against Lackey, major league hitters were the equivalent of Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday (career .310/.386/.527 with a career wRC+ of 139—39% better than the average hitter). In 2013 and 2014, they’ve hit more like a 2013 version of Yuniesky Betancourt (.212/.240/.355 and a 56 wRC+).

            How has Lackey made such improvements so late in his career? Compare Lackey’s average pitch location on his cut fastball between 2011 and  2013. (Pitch location courtesy of http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/)

2011

 

2013

            Looking at location charts for Lackey’s other pitches reveal a similar pattern. In 2011, Lackey left his pitches over the heart of the plate and hitters crushed them. In 2013, Lackey kept his pitches on the outer edges of the strike zone. As a result of his better location, Lackey has improved his strikeout rate, getting more hitters to swing and miss at strikes: 9.8% in 2013 and 10.8% in 2014 (well above his career rate of 8.7%).

            If Lackey can continue his improved pitch location, his contract may not have been a bargain, but it won’t have been a total bust either. 

Dallas Buyers Club

            Dallas Buyers Club tells the story of Ron Woodruff (Matthew McConaughy), an electrician, bull rider, and hustler who, after being diagnosed with AIDS, violates an FDA ban on importing drugs from Mexico. While Dallas Buyers Club deserves credit for tackling such a recent and deeply troubling subject matter—the1980s AIDS crisis and its corresponding homophobia and bigotry—it fails to rise to the challenge presented by the subject matter. There is a great movie somewhere in Dallas Buyers Club, but ultimately the film relies too much on Hollywood cliché to become something meaningful.

            The movie’s strength lie in the performances of McConaughy as Woodruff and Jared Leto as Rayon, a transsexual AIDS patient and later Woodruff’s business partner. Both underwent startling physical transformations to play their roles (Step 1 towards winning an Oscar). McConaughy channels all of his charm and confidence into his performance as Woodruff. He ably plays Woodruff’s cockiness and charisma in battling the FDA, the reluctant Dallas gay community, and winning over the affections of a hospital doctor, Eve (Jennifer Garner). His performance, however, troublingly transforms Woodruff’s own homophobia and bigotry into a side note—something that needs overcoming rather a significant obstacle towards sympathizing with his character. In their scenes together, Leto matches McConaughy’s charisma with a startling energy and determination. He refuses to allow McConaughy’s star power to gobble up the entire screen. He offers a sympathetic portrayal of a transsexual woman in an era that discriminated against anyone who challenged prescribed gender and sexual roles.

            While McConaughy and Leto offer compelling performances, the rest of the film fails to meet the challenge of its subject matter. In telling the story of Woodruff, a heterosexual man, who becomes a pioneer in battling the stigma of AIDS, the film relies on Hollywood paternalistic tropes of a “normal” person standing up for the oppressed minority—for examples look at some recent Oscar nominated films: white lady saves black kid (The Blind Side), white man ends slavery (Lincoln), or white lady supports civil rights (The Help). Rather than showing how gay and lesbian activists challenged bigotry and oppression, we have Matthew McConaughy, the embodiment of a rugged and heterosexual masculine identity, leading the charge. At the end of the film, Woodruff’s patients cheer and celebrate him for standing up to the FDA. The majority of AIDS victims in the film spend their time waiting in lines to get drugs from Woodruff—seeking a cure from the straight white man. As Woodruff fights the FDA, the plot of the film descends into a tried and true narrative of man against uncaring and crooked institution.

            Yet within the film lay the potential for a much more meaningful story. The AIDS crisis of the 1980s produced frightening levels of bigotry, homophobia, and blatantly false information about the spread of HIV. President Reagan refused to call the disease by its name. The American government’s lack of response to the crisis remains a stain on the history of America in the 1980s. The gay rights movement, begun in earnest in the 1960s, gained traction by protesting discrimination and homophobia. The film attempts to capture some of this fear and paranoia, but fails to fully grasp it. After learning of his diagnosis, Woodruff’s rodeo buddies recoil in horror at the prospect of even touching him. They pelt him with homophobic slurs. The scenes, however, come across more as acknowledgments of the era’s bigotry than effectively recapturing it. Instead of spending more time on this part of the AIDS crisis, the film has Woodruff woe Eve, the female doctor (whose character remains horribly underdeveloped), fly around the world looking for drugs, and battle the FDA in court. Rayon, meanwhile, sells her life insurance policy in order help Woodruff stay in business—the ultimate selfless act by an oppressed minority to help her paternalist benefactor.

            Dallas Buyers Club warrants praise for addressing a dark and disturbing part of American history. Yet it squanders the opportunity to tell a meaningful or challenging version of that story. It instead settles for a comforting and safe history of an era marked by bigotry and discrimination. 

Justified Season 5

            Last Wednesday, Justified concluded its fifth season on FX. The show stars Timothy Olyphant as Raylan Givens, a deputy U.S. Marshal, and follows his life in his home of Harlan County, Kentucky. Raylan shares a bond with local self-styled “outlaw” Boyd Crowder (Walton Goggins). Boyd and Raylan live on opposite sides of the law, but have a long personal history—they dug coal together, as one of them usually reminds the audience. As in past seasons, Justified introduced a new villain to serve as foil for both Raylan and Boyd. The show introduced Darryl Crowe Jr. (Michael Rappaport) and his family from Florida, cousins of Harlan criminal, comic foil, and universal sad sack Dewey Crowe. Ultimately, the fifth season of Justified represented one of the show’s weaker story arcs, muddled by too many plot lines, and the relegation of Raylan to a side character for much of the season.

            Justified expended much of its narrative energy on Boyd’s attempts to become a large scale heroin dealer. The arc began promisingly with a darkly hilarious trip to Detroit as Boyd and partner Wynn Duffy attempted to import heroin through Canada. Murdering Detroit mobsters and their dismembered manikins waylaid Boyd’s plans—the mobsters explained the manikins thusly, “That was last week.” Once Boyd turned his focus to Mexico the plotline unraveled. The involvement of Boyd’s cousin and rival Johnny, squabbles with the Crowes, and tensions with Memphis based drug dealers devoured the middle part of the season, while offering little payoff. As Boyd’s heroin schemes faced delay after delay and disaster after disaster, even Boyd became exacerbated by the whole exercise. In a confrontation with Darryl Crowe, some Memphis hitmen, and his partners, Boyd expressed the audience’s frustration when he wished that they would all just shoot each other and figure out the heroin later.

            The imprisonment of Boyd’s fiancé Ava also dragged down the pace of the season. Her storyline grew increasingly separate from the rest of show as the season went on. The series used increasingly bizarre means to keep Ava in jail, culminating in having a county jail guard shiv himself to get Ava sent to state prison. Justified showrunner Graham Yost has explained in recent interviews that the writers wanted the plotline to force Ava to rely on herself and compel her (at the end of the season) to turn against Boyd. Watching Ava’s storyline over the course of the season, the show’s writers mapped out storyline accordingly instead of letting it evolve organically. What could have been an interesting idea about the power of prison to strip away Ava’s humanity, instead dragged on too long and had little relation to rest of the action in Justified.

            Raylan spent most of the season as a secondary character with Ava and Boyd carrying the longer narrative arcs. Raylan, instead, became enmeshed in standalone episodes. Justified has always balanced episodes of the week with longer story arcs, but the show put Raylan largely on the sidelines for much of the season. The best seasons of Justified—the 2^nd and 4^th—have Raylan and Boyd working at parallel goals. The second season featured a confrontation with Mags Bennett and her family and the fourth attempted to unravel the identity of a mob-connected man named Drew Thompson. With the two main characters working at totally different purposes, Justified suffered from a lack of narrative focus. Even Raylan’s dealings with the Crowes, the ostensible villains of the season, lacked the dramatic tension present in other seasons. The show talked much more about the villainy of the Crowes rather than actually demonstrating it. In the season finale, Darryl Crowe Jr. slipped past a tailing Marshal by running a red light. The writers should have slipped Darryl some of Mags Bennett’s “apple pie” moonshine much earlier in the season.

             While a weak season by Justified standards, the fifth season featured some funny and strong character moments. Timothy Olyphant shined in the season finale describing his difficulty in taking a life when his father made him shoot a feral pig. Walton Goggins had some strong moments especially his growing exasperation at the heroin business and his transformation of a pack of cigarettes into high explosives. Even in its weaker seasons, Raylan, Boyd, and the stupidity of Harlan’s criminal class make Justified an enjoyable and essential viewing experience. 

2014 AL Preview

I previewed the National League last week. This week is the American League.

AL East

           

Tampa Bay Rays: 94-68

            Rays manager Joe Maddon employs aggressive defensive shifts, platoons, and pinch hitters. With their small budget, the Rays use every roster spot to try and gain an advantage. They will benefit from retaining ace David Price and a full season’s worth of production from outfielder Wil Myers. Myers, Price, and a healthy Evan Longoria may finally take the Rays to a World Series title.

Boston Red Sox: 92-70

            Everything went right for the Red Sox last year. They avoided major injuries and Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and John Lackey all bounced back from major injuries. The depth of the Red Sox farm system allowed them to eschew big money free agent signings this offseason. They instead filled out their roster with rookies (Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.) and free agent fliers (Grady Sizemore). Their depth should mitigate against any major regression.  

New York Yankees: 85-77

            The Yankees have a wide range of outcomes this season. If Mashiro Tanaka adjusts easily to the US, C.C. Sabbathia locates his missing velocity, and Mark Teixeira finds his home run stroke again, the Yankees could win 95 games. If not, they could win closer to 80. Brian McCann and Ellsbury are significant upgrades, but their infield is a walking disabled list. With an aging Derek Jeter at short, the perennially injured Brian Roberts at second, and Kelly Johnson at third, be prepared for a lot groundballs sneaking into the outfield.

Toronto Blue Jays: 82-80

            The Blue Jays will once again struggle to compete. They have some talented players, Jose Batista, Jose Reyes, and R.A. Dickey, but not enough depth or top flight talent to compete against the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees. League average filler like Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow Macier Izturis and Jonathan Diaz will not lead the Blue Jays to the playoffs.  

Baltimore Orioles:  78-84

            The Orioles won 93 games in 2012 on the strength of a 29-9 record in 1 run games. They fell to 85 wins last year with a 20-31 record in 1 run games. Chris Davis’s monster power numbers should continue, but Nick Markasis is an expansive and aging out-machine.  The Orioles lack the depth of the other AL East heavyweights.

AL Central  

   

Detroit Tigers: 91-71

            Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez anchor the strongest starting pitching staff in the American League. Moving Miguel Cabrera back to first base and replacing him with rookie Nick Castellanos should improve the Tigers’ anemic defense. Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and new arrival Ian Kinsler should provide more than enough offense for Detroit to win another division title.

Cleveland Indians: 86-76

            The Indians will need big seasons from young starters Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar to compete for a wildcard berth. They will also bet on Yan Gomes’s pitch framing skills being an improvement over Carlos Santana. Santana, a patient hitter with power, will move to third base. The Indians will also have to hope that second baseman Jason Kipnis can build on his breakout 2013 season.

Kansas City Royals: 81-81

            If the Royals have hope of contending this season, they will need rookie flamethrower Yordano Ventura to have a stellar rookie campaign. James Shields is an unquestioned ace, but the Royals also feature replacement level starters in Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jason Vargas. Last season’s out-machines Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain will need major improvements for the Royals to compete.

Chicago White Sox: 74-88

            The White Sox had an aggressive offseason, signing Cuban slugger Jose Abreu, trading closer Addison Reed for Diamondbacks third base prospect Matt Davidson, and acquired outfielder Adam Eaton from Arizona (as part of a larger 3 team trade). GM Rick Hahn brought in young talent that should help the next White Sox contending team. They may even beat this projection behind ace starter Chris Sale and if Abreu can offer 25-30 home runs.

Minnesota Twins:  66-96

            The Twins are marking time until the arrival of top prospects outfielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano. Currently their offense is Joe Mauer and eight other dudes. They spent a lot of money this offseason on third and fourth starter types like Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. That may prevent the Twins from bottoming out, but probably not.

AL West   

     

Oakland A’s: 91-73

            Like the Rays and Red Sox, the A’s maximize their roster spots to gain platoon advantages, use defensive shifts, and shuffle players according to matchups.  They lack the financial resources to compete with the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Rangers. So they identify players with undervalued skills (Coco Crisp, Brandon Moss, Nick Punto) and offer them playing time unavailable on other big money contending teams.

Texas Rangers: 84-78

            Injuries have already devastated the Rangers this season. Yu Darvish missed his first start because of a stiff neck. Starters Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, and Colby Lewis are all on the disabled list. Converted reliever Tanner Scheppers took the hill on Opening Day. The Rangers should have a strong offense with Shin Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and the underrated Adrian Beltre (just don’t touch his head). But their pitching injuries will cause them to fall behind the A’s.

Los Angeles Angels: 80-82

            While much of the focus will be on whether Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton can return to form, keep an eye on the back end of the Angels pitching staff. If newly acquired starters Tyler Skaggs (a former Angels prospect) and Hector Santiago can pitch well, the Angels may have a shot at the AL West crown. Also they have Mike Trout, the unquestioned best player in baseball.

Seattle Mariners: 74-88

            The Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a massive 10 year, 240 million dollar contract and then stopped spending money. If they really wanted to compete, the Mariners should have signed Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana and Nelson Cruz and kept upgrading their team. Instead they have holes in the outfield and starting rotation after Felix Hernandez. Cano and Hernandez are the foundations of a championship team, not one in and of themselves.

Houston Astros: 65-97

            The Astros have bottomed out the last several seasons, taking advantage of loopholes in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that encourage tanking. As a result, they have owned the number 1 overall pick in the draft for the past two seasons and will have it again this year. They also have the largest spending pool for their signing their drafted players—allowing them to outspend other teams in the draft. The Astros climb towards contention won’t be complete for another year or two, but the benefits of the tanking strategy should soon bear fruit. Outfielder George Springer, starter Mark Appel, and shortstop Carlos Correa are all nearing the majors. They may be a joke now, but in a few years, the Astros may have the last laugh. 

2014 NL Preview

            With the Major League Baseball season beginning in earnest this week, I wanted to make some predictions for each league and then individual awards and playoffs. Since, in the words of screenwriter William Goldman, nobody knows anything, I admit I have no idea how the season will turn out. I wrote this solely to amuse myself. Today, I will cover the National League. Later in the week, I will address the American League and the playoffs/individual awards. 

 NL East: Projected W-L

Washington Nationals: 93-69

            I think the Nationals take a leap forward this season. Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Jordan Zimmerman, and Gio Gonzalez anchor a strong starting rotation. Their lineup should score plenty of runs behind Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, and Jayson Werth. They also have the advantage of playing some very weak teams within their own division (the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins).  

Atlanta Braves: 86-76

            Injuries have already felled Braves starters Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen for the entire season. Meanwhile Gavin Floyd continues his recovery from a UCL tear and Mike Minor has struggled with a sore shoulder. Recent signee Ervin Santana will lead the patchwork pitching staff. The Braves will need outfielder B.J. Upton and second baseman Dan Uggla to offer some level of competency to bolster the team’s offense.

New York Mets: 77-85

            This season the Mets will begin their climb back towards respectability. By next season, they will have three young and promising starters in Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Matt Harvey. David Wright continues to be one of better third basemen in the league. Travis d’Arnaud could be a significant upgrade at catcher. The best outcome for the Mets may be closing in on a .500 season.

Philadelphia Phillies: 75-87

            The Phillies have two ace left-handed pitchers in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Unfortunately that’s about all they have.  Ben Revere, with a .324 career OBP, will lead off in front of an aging Jimmy Rollins, an oft-injured Chase Utley, and the corpse of Ryan Howard. But good news, Phillies fans, they only owe closer Jonathan Papelbon 26 million dollars over the next two years and Ryan Howard 85 million over the next three!  There are long days ahead in Philadelphia.

Miami  Marlins: 74-88

            Giancarlo Stanton’s 40 home run power and Jose Fernandez’s dazzling pitching are the only reasons to watch this pathetic franchise.

NL Central 

St. Louis Cardinals: 94-68

            The Cardinals have a deep roster and have improved on last year’s World Series team. I would rather see flamethrowers Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen. Yet the Cardinals rotation will include staff ace Adam Wainwright and second year pitchers Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller. Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina highlight a deep lineup.   

Pittsburgh Pirates: 82-80

            The Pirates will likely regress from last year’s playoff team. A.J. Burnett signed with the Phillies. Francisco Liriano will likely not repeat his otherworldly numbers from last season. The Pirates also have a gaping hole at 1B. If outfielder Gregory Polanco and starting pitcher Jamieson Taillon arrive midseason, then the Pirates might hang around in the wildcard race. They will likely finish the season around .500.

Cincinnati Reds: 78-84

            Last season, the Reds featured only two above average hitters in their lineup, Joey Votto and Shin Soo Choo. And Choo now plays for the Texas Rangers. As long as out-machines Billy Hamilton and Zack Cosart occupy spots in the lineup and second baseman Brandon Phillips continues his march toward mediocrity, the Reds will have trouble scoring runs. Their rotation will need a lot of healthy starts from Mat Latos and Homer Bailey to cover their other weaknesses.

Milwaukee Brewers: 76-86

            Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Khris Davis comprise one of the strongest outfields in the league. If third baseman Aramis Ramirez can hit 25 homers, the Brewers might survive starting Lyle Overbay at first base and Scooter Gennett at second. Unfortunately third starters like Yovanni Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, and Matt Garza populate their starting rotation. If the pitching staff can improve, the Brewers may be a surprise wild-card contender.  

Chicago Cubs: 66-96

            Theo Epstein’s rebuilding effort will soon pay off. By next season, the Cubs infield could feature four starters 25 years old and younger: 1B Anthony Rizzo (25), 2B Javier Baez (22), SS Starlin Castro (25), and 3B Kris Bryant (23). Bryant and outfielder Jorge Soler will continue their climb up the organizational ladder this season. The Cubs are still a year or two away, but their young talent is coming… and soon.

NL West 

Los Angeles Dodgers: 91-71

            Two hundred and twenty five million dollars can’t always buy a World Series championship, but it can probably buy an NL West division title. With Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Dodgers should have one of two best starting rotation in the NL (the other being the Nationals). They also have a strong offense behind Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Yaisel “Won’t somebody please think of the children!” Puig.

San Francisco Giants: 87-75

            This could be a bounce-back year for the Giants. Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain headline a strong pitching staff. Improving first baseman Brandon Belt and newly svelte third baseman Pablo Sandoval should help catcher Buster Posey and outfielder Hunter Pence to form an above average offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 81-81

            Newly acquired slugger Mark Trumbo will pair with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to form a strong nucleus for the starting lineup. The loss of starter Patrick Corbin to injury will hurt the Diamondbacks starting rotation. The Diamondbacks have also hurt their future by trading away young players like Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Bauer, Matt Davidson, and Adam Eaton for little in return.

San Diego Padres: 79-83

            The Padres have some intriguing young players like second baseman Jedd Gyorko and shortstop Evereth Cabrera. They also have a lot of average to mediocre players like Carlos Quentin and Tyson Ross. The Padres should be competitive, but don’t expect much more.

Colorado Rockies: 68-94

            The Rockies have superstar caliber players in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Injuries, however, cause Tulowitzki and Gonzalez to routinely miss one to two months every season. Star pitching prospects Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray offer hope for the future, as soon as next season. But not soon enough for the 2014 Rockies. 

The Great Centerfield Debate: Bradley Jr. vs Sizemore

            Spring training statistics are meaningless. Yet every year, baseball fans and media alike drool over the hot start of some player. In 2013, Boston Red Sox fans salivated over the potential of outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Bradley batted .419/.507/.613 in 62 spring training at bats. Yet Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy, the epitome of a sportswriter who long ago stopped caring about his sport, being good at his job, or trying to write a cogent sentence, described Bradley as “a spotless soul with no baggage and no attachments to the hardball horrors that have plagued this franchise since the final days of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein.”[1] NESN declared that “Jackie Bradley Jr.’s time is now.”[2]

            In 2014, Red Sox fans and media have fixated on Grady Sizemore. A former All-Star center fielder, Sizemore has not played in the majors since 2011. This spring, however, Sizemore has produced a .381/.409/.429 batting line in 21 at bats. This absurdly small sample size has stirred conversations about Sizemore becoming the starting center fielder for the Red Sox. ESPN Boston reported that Daniel Nava would play a bit of center field this spring, inferring that the Red Sox would start the season with Sizemore in center.[3] CBS Sports’s Jon Heyman recently declared that Grady Sizemore’s “revival is something to behold.”[4] Sizemore’s competition for the center field job is none other than last year’s sensation, Jackie Bradley Jr.  

            The Sizemore-Bradley debate raises several important issues regarding how major league teams function versus how media and fans cover them. First, teams and most intelligent fans know that spring training stats do not predict future success. Bradley struggled in the majors last season, despite his spring training accomplishments. In 107 plate appearances, he produced a .189/.280/.337 batting line, with 3 home runs, five doubles, 10 walks and 31 strikeouts. Recognizing small sample sizes, however, does not drive pageviews or fill time on NESN. So we are subjected to endless coverage of Sizemore’s 8 hits in 21 at bats. What if two of those hits had been outs? Does Sizemore warrant this much attention if he were hitting .285 instead of .381?

            The second issue revolves around the relative value of Bradley and Sizemore for this coming season. How do they compare as players? And what can we reasonably expect from them? First, I want to compare the two players using Fangraphs’ ZIPS projection system.

Sizemore vs. Bradley (Fangraphs ZIPS projection system)

	Games	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
Sizemore	40	169	.227	.290	.383	81	0.1
Bradley	117	498	.245	.322	.375	90	1.5

            The projections suggest that Bradley will receive more at-bats and provide more value than Sizemore. Bradley holds the edge in AVG, OBP, wRC+, and WAR. Sizemore has a little more power. We should, however, not stop here. At this point, Sizemore and Bradley are at different parts of their careers. We should compare their relative strengths as players. This will involve comparing Sizemore’s major league career and Bradley’s minor league one. (Note: Just because Bradley has a higher OBP or AVG doesn’t mean he’s a better player or will be, the point is to look at them in general sense, to see what they do well.)             

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	K %	BB %
Sizemore	4047	.269	.357	.473	20.2	10.6
Bradley	989	.297	.404	.471	17.4	13.3

           

Both players bat lefthanded and play center field. They work the strike zone as evidenced by their high walk rates. Sizemore is (and has been) the better power hitter.

            During his three year peak from 2006-2008, Sizemore played at an MVP level. He produced 7.8, 6.2, and 7.2 WAR seasons. He never hit fewer than 24 home runs, scored fewer than 101 runs, and generated wRC+s of 132, 129, and 132. Sizemore’s body, however, broke down. From 2009-2011, he played in 211 out of 486 possible games (43%). He has not played in the majors since 2011. His injury history is long and frightening. In 2009, Sizemore had surgery on his left elbow and for a sports hernia. In 2010, he had microfracture surgery to repair his injured left knee. In 2011, he suffered a right knee contusion and required a second sports hernia surgery. In 2012, he had back surgery and a microfracture surgery on his right knee to fix a previous arthroscopic procedure. Since 2011, he has suffered continual setbacks in his recovery. He sat out the entire 2013 season. This string of injuries suggests a systematic breakdown within his body. Sizemore’s recent history suggests that playing every day would lead to further injuries.

            Bradley offers strong defense, the ability to take a walk, health, and the potential to become a valuable starter. Fangraphs ranked Bradley as the second best prospect in the Sox system behind Xander Bogaerts. Marc Hulet wrote, “Bradley’s greatest asset is his above-average defense in center field, which comes from excellent reads, good range and a solid arm. At the plate, he shows a patient approach and isn’t afraid to work the count. He doesn’t have plus power but it could be average or a tick above. He should hit at the top of a big league lineup, although he lacks impact speed.” Sox Prospects also ranks Bradley second in the Sox system. They emphasize his intelligence, strong defensive instincts, and strong pitch recognition. At his peak, Bradley will offer above average defense, good on-base skills, and perhaps league average power. He has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career.

            In great center field debate of 2014, Sizemore offers some upside, but his body might be made of popsicle sticks. Bradley Jr. could become the center fielder of the Red Sox for the foreseeable future.

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[1] http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/03/31/jackie-bradley-offers-red-sox-fans-hope-for-coming-season/0U1fxb1ZILe7hPAPYHCVAN/story.html

[2] http://nesn.com/playlist/john-lackeys-progress-david-ortizs-uncertain-status-among-things-to-take-away-from-spring-training/9/

[3] http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/35129/sox-to-take-a-look-at-nava-in-center-as-potential-backup

[4] http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24490200/the-grady-gamble-so-far-sizemore-revival-is-something-to-behold

The Americans

            In The Americans, Keri Russell and Matthew Rhys play Elizabeth and Phillip Jennings, a pair of KGB spies on a deep cover mission in the United States. The KGB carefully trained Phillip and Elizabeth to assimilate into American culture. They did not allow Phillip and Elizabeth to know about each other’s pre-KGB lives or to speak Russian to each other. In the United States, Phillip and Elizabeth run a Washington D.C. travel agency and have two children, Paige and Henry. The first season of the show impressed with its strong cast of characters and performances, a compelling grasp of the escalating Cold War in the 1980s, and a wholehearted embrace of the moral ambiguity of spycraft.

            Russell especially shines as the true-believer Elizabeth. The first season charts Elizabeth’s devotion to the Soviet Union and her distrust of her handler, Claudia (Margo Martindale, and the orders coming from Moscow Centre. Elizabeth truly believes in the supremacy of communism over the decadent West. She never eschews an opportunity to remind Phillip of corruption and evil of America. Her devotion sometimes blinds her to the reality of her situation. In a late season episode, Elizabeth and Phillip intercept and kill a KGB assassin. The KGB had ordered the assassin to start killing scientists related to the Strategic Defense Initiative Program, but then changed its mind. Moscow Centre then ordered Phillip and Elizabeth to stop him. She and Phillip manage to kill the assassin with his own bomb after a shootout in a hotel room. The assassin, however, had managed to kill one of the scientists. In the aftermath, Elizabeth chides herself for failing at the mission. Phillip, meanwhile, chides her for failing to realize the impossibility of their mission. He also tells her that the fault lies with Moscow Centre.

            Protecting his family serves as Phillip’s primary motivation. Over his time in America, Phillip has grown to care more about Elizabeth and the children than the Soviet Union. In the series premiere, he suggests defecting to the United States in order to secure a future for their children. The tension between Elizabeth’s devotion to the USSR and Phillip’s attachment to his family frames their relationship throughout the first season. Throughout the season, Phillip and Elizabeth continually trade places over their desire to continue their marriage. Maintaining their marriage proves difficult as they each must use sex to complete their missions.

            Showrunners Joe Weisburg and Joel Fields have successfully captured the feel of the 1980s and the escalating tension of the Cold War following the election of Ronald Reagan. Modern audiences, aware of the collapse of the Soviet Union, know that Phillip and Elizabeth wind up on the losing side of history. Yet the show effectively demonstrates why Soviet Union’s reliance on its nuclear arsenal would make the Strategic Defense Initiative’s missile defense shield so frightening. The show also plays the Soviets’ misunderstanding of American politics. Following the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan, the Soviets fear a coup led by Secretary of State (and former General) Alexander Haig. Only Phillip’s understanding of American politics, something Elizabeth lacks, defuses the situation. The show also captures the cultural zeitgeist of the 1980s. Phillip keeps his hair in a perm and Elizabeth sports high-waisted jeans. Paige complains about not having enough legwarmers. These cultural traits, mostly scorned by 21^st century Americans, are not played for laughs, but rather treated as part of their day-to-day lives.

            Finally The Americans willingly embraces the moral ambiguity of spycraft for both the Soviet Union and the United States. The show questions claims of moral superiority by either side and demonstrates that the Americans and Soviets will do whatever is necessary to win the Cold War. Phillip maintains a secret relationship with Martha, a secretary in the FBI counter-intelligence office. Phillip eventually marries Martha in order to continue his espionage activities. She proclaims her love for Phillip’s guise as “Clark,” a hardworking government counter-intelligence official. Elizabeth and Phillip manipulate, exploit, and murder American citizens in order to accomplish their missions and preserve their identities. Stan Beeman (Noah Emmerich), Elizabeth and Phillip’s new FBI agent neighbor, uses similar tactics. He blackmails Nina, an employee at the Soviet embassy, into becoming an FBI mole. Stan has Nina plant evidence on the KGB resident-in-charge in order to protect her. The FBI organizes an extralegal kidnapping of Vlad, a low level KGB official, in order to avenge the death of the American scientists. Stan then executes Vlad following the death of his partner. By embracing this moral ambiguity, the show challenges its viewers about who, if anyone, they are actually rooting for in the Cold War.  

            The Americans successfully mediates on the meaning of marriage and the ultimate purpose of the Cold War, making it one of the most dynamic and engaging shows on television.