Thursday, April 23, 2015

Justified: Final Season

            Throughout its history Justified’s seasons ranged from sensational (seasons two and six) to subpar (season five). Yet the show always maintained a strong hold on its characters and setting. Rural Harlan County, Kentucky hosted the mob and Marshals with equal aplomb. A bevy of notable characters weaved their way in and out of the narrative, from Raylan’s criminal father Arlo to aspiring drug lord Loretta to Dewey Crowe, the malapropism machine. Characters met their fates in a variety of ways from the tragic (Mags Bennett) to the dumb (Danny Crowe) to the explosive (poor Mr. Picker). During its run, Justified showrunner Graham Yost and his staff (and the spirit of Elmore Leonard) questioned whether the show’s three central characters, Raylan, Ava, and Boyd could change their lives and escape the pull of Harlan County.
            The final season revealed that Raylan Givens could leave Harlan behind. He confronted the ghost of his father by breaking into his father’s shed—disappointed when it did not reveal the horrors that he had always imagined. He rid himself of his father’s land and eventually his grave. Raylan even managed to demonstrate the slightest personal growth. In the pilot episode of Justified, Raylan had goaded a Miami gangster into drawing his gun so Raylan could shoot him. In the series finale, Raylan pursued a similar track with Boyd. He demanded that Boyd grab a pistol so Raylan could pull down on him, ending their feud forever. Boyd refused and instead dared Raylan to cross the line from lawman with a code to cold blooded murderer. Raylan refused, instead allowing Boyd to live out the remainder of his life in jail. As the finale jumped ahead it time, Justified wanted to remind the viewer that there was some things Raylan couldn’t change. He had a new hat (won as a result of his confrontation with young gunslinger Boon), but the same attitude. And no matter how hard he tried, he still couldn’t make things work with his ex-wife Winona.  
            Ava Crowder also won a better life for herself. Ava was a survivor. She survived an abusive husband, aspiring outlaw fiancĂ©, and prison (in one of the show’s least advised arcs). When the series began, Ava had just murdered her abusive husband Bowman. The pair had married out of high school and Bowman, a star football player, promised her a life outside of Harlan. Bowman took his failures out on Ava. Ava then dated Raylan and Boyd, plotting a way out of the poverty and violence of Harlan. Continually thwarted in those efforts, Ava, blazed her own path to freedom. In the final season, she shot Boyd, drew on Raylan, and stole ten million dollars in cash. She escaped from Harlan in the back of a pet grooming van. Although Raylan managed to track her down, he let her go, fulfilling his promise, from the end of season five, to keep her (and her son) safe. 
            Boyd meanwhile completed his transformation from criminal for hire to self-styled “outlaw.” As Raylan pointed out in their final scene together, Boyd’s had taken to repeating himself. He began as a preacher and ended as one. Yet Boyd’s journey was a bit more complicated. He began the series by espousing his self-serving belief in white supremacy, but it was only a means to an end. Boyd’s goals were always money, power, and cultivating his own legacy. His exaggerated speaking style, his skill with explosives, and charisma all honed his reputation. Why kill Mr. Picker when you can blow him up in a hotel room in front of Wynn Duffy and Katherine Hale instead? Boyd’s ego allows Raylan to fool him into thinking that Ava has died in the finale. When Boyd questions why Raylan has come to tell him about Ava, Raylan responds that they dug coal together—a common refrain throughout the series. Boyd believes it is this bond, born out of their shared experience and carried out through years of antagonism and a legendary rivalry that brought Raylan to visit him. Viewed through the lens of his own legend, it makes all the sense in the world. Who is the great Raylan Givens without his nemesis Boyd Crowder?

            While it rarely found itself discussed among the rarified air of Breaking Bad, Mad Men, or the other contenders for the “Best Show on TV,” Justified managed to be amusing, entertaining, and heartbreaking. The dialogue crackled. We laughed at the stupidity of Harlan’s criminal element, felt sympathy for Raylan’s colleagues as he piled up body after body, and witnessed the desperation and poverty of Harlan County. And how people like Mags Bennett and Ellstin Limehouse carved out lives for themselves when no one else could be bothered to care. Even at its lowest moments Justified was always fun to watch. And that’s how we should remember it. 

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Top Chef: Weakest Winners and Contestants

            Welcome back to my overly nerdy examination into the contestants of Top Chef. Today we’re going to cover some of the weakest winners from the twelve seasons and the weakest overall contestants.

First off let’s have a reminder of our scoring system:

·         4 points for winning the weekly elimination challenge
·         2 points for winning the weekly quickfire challenge
·         2 points for finishing in the top 3 for the elimination challenge
·         -2 points for finishing in the bottom 3 for the elimination challenge
·         -6 points for being eliminated
·         8 points for winning Top Chef

Ranking the Winners

Ranking
Contestant (Season
Elimination Wins
Quickfires
High Finishes
Low Finishes
Total Points
Win %
1
Paul  (9)
8
2
0
1
42
0.37037
2
Richard (8)
4
4
4
1
38
0.266667
T-3
Stephanie (4)
4
2
6
3
34
0.230769
T-3
Michael (6)
3
2
6
1
34
0.185185
T-5
Kristen (10)
4
1
1
0
28
0.185185
T-5
Mei (12)
3
1
5
2
28
0.148148
7
Hung (3)
1
4
5
3
24
0.192308
T-8
Nicholas (11)
3
3
2
5
20
0.2
T-8
Harold (1)
1
2
4
2
20
0.166667
10
Ilan (2)
2
1
2
3
16
0.136364
11
Hosea (5)
2
1
2
4
14
0.11111
12
Kevin (7)
1
1
3
5
10
0.07407

·         The weakest winning chefs have been Kevin Sbraga of Top Chef Washington D.C., Hosea Rosenburg of Top Chef New York, and Ilan Hall of Top Chef Los Angeles. Combined the three chefs won a combined eight challenges. Equaling Richard Blais’s performance during Top Chef All-Stars and only two behind Paul Qui’s dominant run during Top Chef Texas. Their combined point total (40) failed to match Qui’s total output (42).
·         Despite winning the title of Top Chef, both Kevin (10 points) and Hosea (14 points) failed to finish first among the contestants in their respective seasons according to the total points system. Rosenburg finished second behind Stefan Richter.

Contestant (Season-Finish)
Elimination Wins
Quickfires
High Finishes
Low Finishes
Total Points
Win %
Stefan (5-3)
4
4
2
3
16
0.296296
Hosea (5-1)
2
1
2
4
14
0.11111

·         Sbraga, meanwhile finished a remarkable third in total points, behind both Ed Cotton and Tiffany Derry (remember this scoring system includes a + 8 bonus for winning Top Chef and a -6 for failing to win). Derry managed to capture first place, by never finishing in the bottom except the episode in which she was eliminated.

Contestant (Season-Finish)
Elimination Wins
Quickfires
High Finishes
Low Finishes
Total Points
Win %
Tiffany (7-5)
2
2
5
0
16
0.148148
Ed (7-2)
3
3
3
2
14
0.222222
Kevin (7-1)
1
1
3
5
10
0.07407

Weakest Contestants

            Now that we’ve looked at the weakest winners, let’s take a gander at the weakest contestants overall. According to the points system, the weakest contestants are not necessarily the ones eliminated in the first few episodes. The points system rewards (or punishes) the chefs who hang around the bottom, failing to produce good dishes, but not being so bad as to be eliminated. So let’s get to it.

Contestant (Season-Finish)
Elimination Wins
Quickfires
High Finishes
Low Finishes
Total Points
Jose (9-7)
0
1
0
6
-16
Lisa (4-2)
1
0
1
6
-12
Ash (6-9)
0
0
0
3
-12
Stephen (7-9)
0
0
0
3
-12

·         Josie Smith-Malave appeared on Top Chef twice. First as a contestant in Top Chef Los Angeles (season 2), when she was eliminated in a team challenge in the fifth episode. She scored -4 for that season, having finished in the top once.
·         Smith-Malave’s time on Top Chef Seattle (season nine) proved controversial as her consistently poor performances left her on the verge of elimination a record tying six times. In the season’s Restaurant Wars episode, the judges shockingly sent eventually winner Kristen Kish home over Smith-Malave. As executive chef of the restaurant, Kish accepted responsibility for Smith-Malave’s poor dish. Kish won Last Chance Kitchen and reentered the competition before winning the finale.
·         Similarly Lisa Fernandes of Top Chef Chicago carved out perhaps the most unlikely path to the finale. In the season’s twelfth episode, head judge Tom Colicchio pointed out to Fernandes that she and fellow contestant Spike Mendelsohn were frequent visitors to the elimination block. Yet Fernandes continually eked by, her dishes were always just good enough.  


And that brings us to the end of our examination of the contestants in the history of Top Chef. Perhaps I’ll return to this data at a later point or not. But next time I’ll have thoughts on the series finale of Justified

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Who was the best Top Chef?

            By my count, there have been 196 contestants of Top Chef over the course of twelve seasons. The early seasons of Top Chef were the rockiest. The judges and producers were trying to work out the kinks, establish the show’s rhythms, and attract talented chefs. Most fans would agree that the show really hit its stride with Top Chef Chicago (season 4). Throughout that season, local chef Stephanie Izard battled the molecular gastronomist Richard Blais up until the finale when Izard emerged victorious. Since then, the seasons of Top Chef have largely risen and fallen on the talent of the assembled chefs. The show has demonstrated some noteworthy highs in terms of culinary talent and creativity—Top Chef Las Vegas (season 6), Top Chef All-Stars (season 8), and Top Chef Boston (season 12)—and cringe-worthy lows—the bullying of an Asian chef in Top Chef Texas (season 9), attempting to pass off cream cheese as a local, sustainable product in Top Chef New Orleans (season 11), and the ceaseless product integration (Win a Toyota Camry! Pack your ingredients in Gladware! Make sure you please the Chase Sapphire Preferred Diners!). But the question that brings us together is: who was the best contestant in the history of Top Chef?    

      In order to answer that question, I devised a simple points system (described below). This scoring system hopes to reward each season’s winner while also recognizing the skill of chefs who performed well, but failed to win. Since the goal of the show is to capture the title of Top Chef, I felt that a sizeable bonus should be awarded to the overall winner.

The system is as follows:

·         4 points for winning the weekly elimination challenge
·         2 points for winning the weekly quickfire challenge
·         2 points for finishing in the top 3 for the elimination challenge
·         -2 points for finishing in the bottom 3 for the elimination challenge
·         -6 points for being eliminated
·         8 points for winning Top Chef


With all the boring technical stuff out of the way, let’s get down to it. We’ll begin with the strongest 20 contestants in the history of the show based on point total (All results were tabled from the contestant progress charts on each season’s Wikipedia page).

Ranking
Contestant (Season-Finish)
Elimination Wins
Quickfires
High Finishes
Low Finishes
Total Points
Win %
1
Paul  (9-1)
8
2
0
1
42
0.37037
2
Richard (8-1)
4
4
4
1
38
0.266667
T-3
Stephanie (4-1)
4
2
6
3
34
0.230769
T-3
Michael (6-1)
3
2
6
1
34
0.185185
T-5
Kristen (10-1)
4
1
1
0
28
0.185185
T-5
Mei (12-1)
3
1
5
2
28
0.148148
7
Kevin (6-3)
5
4
3
1
26
0.333333
8
Hung (3-1)
1
4
5
3
24
0.192308
9
Gregory (12-2)
5
4
4
4
22
0.333333
T-10
Richard (4-3)
4
3
3
1
20
0.269231
T-10
Doug (12-3)
4
2
3
0
20
0.222222
T-10
Nicholas (11-1)
3
3
2
5
20
0.2
T-10
Harold (1-1)
1
2
4
2
20
0.166667
T-10
Nina (11-2)
3
2
7
2
20
0.166667
T-15
Brooke (10-2)
5
3
2
3
18
0.296296
T-15
Shirley (11-3)
4
4
1
1
18
0.266667
T-15
Bryan (6-2)
4
0
4
0
18
0.148148
T-15
Stefan (5-3)
4
4
2
3
16
0.296296
T-18
Tiffany (7-5)
2
2
5
0
16
0.148148
T-18
Ilan (2-1)
2
1
2
3
16
0.136364

·         Paul Qui of Top Chef Texas comes out on top. This is not a surprising result as Qui dominated his season, winning eight elimination challenges and only facing elimination once.

·         Fan favorite Richard Blais (widely considered the best contestant in the show’s history) comes in second for his performance in Top Chef All-Stars. Blais’s impressive showing in Top Chef Chicago landed him tied for tenth, despite suffering the penalty for being eliminated.

·         Unsurprisingly the winners of Top Chef dominate the leader board. Of the top twenty spots, ten of them are held by winners of Top Chef (only Kevin from Top Chef Washington D.C. and Hosea of Top Chef New York fail to make the list). The average finish of the contestants in this group is 1.9.

Total points, however, is not the only way to measure success. The scoring system reflects the structure of the show, meaning the bonus awarded to winners may skewer the result in their favor. This is similar to deciding the best team in Major League Baseball based solely on who won the World Series. Sometimes the best teams wins out, but sometimes luck and other factors get in the way. So in place of points, I’ve sorted the results by win percentage. This way we can remove the bonus for winning the title of Top Chef and instead focus just on which chef won the highest percentage of challenges.

Ranking
Contestant (Season-Finish)
Elimination Wins
Quickfires
High Finishes
Low Finishes
Total Points
Win %
1
Paul (9-1)
8
2
0
1
42
0.37037
T-2
Kevin (6-3)
5
4
3
1
26
0.333333
T-2
Gregory (12-2)
5
4
4
4
22
0.333333
T-4
Brooke (10-2)
5
3
2
3
18
0.296296
T-4
Stefan (5-3)
4
4
2
3
16
0.296296
6
Sam (2-3)
1
5
5
3
12
0.272727
7
Richard (4-3)
4
3
3
1
20
0.269231
T-8
Richard (8-1)
4
4
4
1
38
0.266667
T-8
Shirley (11-3)
4
4
1
1
18
0.266667
10
Dale T (8-6)
3
4
2
2
14
0.233333
11
Stephanie (4-1)
4
2
6
3
34
0.230769
T-12
Doug (12-3)
4
2
3
0
20
0.222222
T-12
Ed (7-2)
3
3
3
2
14
0.222222
T-12
Angelo (7-3)
2
4
2
2
10
0.222222
T-12
Sheldon (10-3)
2
4
4
5
8
0.222222
T-12
Lee Anne (1-4)
1
3
1
2
2
0.222222
T-17
Nicholas (11-1)
3
3
2
5
20
0.2
T-17
Mike (8-2)
2
4
2
2
10
0.2
T-19
Hung (3-1)
1
4
5
3
24
0.192308
T-19
Antonia (4-4)
1
4
6
2
14
0.192308
T-19
Casey (3-3)
2
3
2
4
4
0.192308

·         Sorting by win percentage diversifies the field a bit. Now the average contestant finish is 2.57. Instead of ten winners in the top twenty, that number drops to five with only two in the top ten.

·         Paul Qui remains in the number one spot, with an impressive 37% winning percentage.

·         Kevin Gillespie of Top Chef Las Vegas and Gregory Gourdet of Top Chef Boston tie for second place with an impressive five elimination challenge wins and four quickfires. Interestingly both chefs failed to win their seasons.

·         Under this scoring system, Blais’s performance in Top Chef Chicago moves him into 7th place, just ahead of his winning performance in Top Chef All-Stars.

So we’ve looked at a simple points system that mirrors the rules of the show and a win percentage that tries to take a broader view. In order to reconcile these two results, let’s average them together and see where we stand.

Contestant (Season-Finish)
Points Ranking
Win Percentage Ranking
Average Ranking
Overall Finish  
Paul (9-1)
1
1
1
1
Kevin (6-3)
7
2
4.5
2
Richard (8-1)
2
8
5
3
Gregory (12-2)
9
2
5.5
4
Stephanie (4-1)
3
11
7
5
Richard (4-3)
10
7
8.5
6
Brooke (10-2)
15
4
9.5
7
Stefan (5-3)
15
4
9.5
7
Doug (12-3)
10
12
11
9
Shirley (11-3)
15
8
11.5
10
Michael (6-1)
3
22
12.5
11
Nicholas (11-1)
10
17
13.5
12
Hung (3-1)
8
19
13.5
12
Kristen (10-1)
5
22
13.5
12
Dale T (8-6)
21
10
15.5
15
Sam (2-3)
26
6
16
16
Ed (7-2)
21
12
16.5
17
Nina (11-2)
10
28
19
18
Harold (1-1)
10
28
19
19
Mei (12-1)
5
34
19.5
20

·         Unsurprisingly Qui maintains the top spot and clearly ranks as the best contestant in the show’s history.

·         The top ten includes three winners: Qui, Blais, and Izard; two runners up: Gregory Gourdet and Brooke Williamson; and five third place finishers: Kevin Gillespie, Blais, Stefan Richter, Doug Adams, and Shirley Chung.

·         The results also skew heavily in favor of season four and onward. Only three chefs (Harold Dieterle, Sam Talbot and Hung Huynh) come from seasons 1-3. Seasons 12 (Boston) and 11 (New Orleans) each feature three chefs in the top twenty. Seasons four (Chicago), six (Las Vegas), eight (All-Stars), and ten (Seattle) all have two. So maybe Top Chef is like the Star Trek movies?


I’ll have at least one follow-up post detailing some of the other interesting results from this analysis, including seasons where the best chef according to the points system didn’t win, the weakest contestants in Top Chef history and more.