The Entremet : January 2014

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview: Seattle-Denver

For the first time since 2002, the top two teams according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric will meet in the Super Bowl. Additionally, the Denver-Seattle matchup will be the second time in the last twenty years when the top seeds from each conference advanced to the Super Bowl (New Orleans-Indianapolis in 2010 was the other). The game features a host of storylines that ESPN and other media outlets have beaten to death; Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense, Peyton Manning, Richard Sherman, the cold weather, hosting a Super Bowl in New Jersey, the cold weather, Peyton Manning in cold weather, the two states that legalized marijuana playing in the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning playing in a Super Bowl, and the cold weather Super Bowl in New Jersey. Very few of these storylines have any bearing on the outcome of the game. So let’s get down to it.

Overall

According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric* that includes the playoffs and weighs the end of the season more heavily, the teams compare this way:

	Seattle	Denver
Total DVOA (overall rank)	38.6% (1^st)	33.1% (2^nd)
Total DVOA (weighted)	46.4% (1^st)	28.2% (4^th)

* A reminder, DVOA contextualizes and measures each team according to its offense, defense, and special teams; each percentage point represents one point above or below league average. Good offenses have positive DVOA scores and good defenses have negative ones. A more thorough explanation of DVOA can be found here.

No matter how you slice it, this game features the two best teams in the league. Seattle finished the season first in DVOA and weighted DVOA suggests that they’ve only gotten stronger as the season progressed. Denver’s high powered passing offense set new records for points and total yards. As Grantland’s Bill Barnwell has argued, the Denver offense ranks the best offense of all time, and Seattle’s defense stands as one of the ten greatest defenses ever. The strengths of these teams suggest that this should be a great Super Bowl.

Seattle Offense vs. Denver Defense

	Seattle Offense	Denver Defense
Overall DVOA (rank)	9.4% (7^th)	-0.2% (15^th)
Weighted DVOA (rank)	8.7% (9^th)	-5.6% (10^th)
Passing Rank	27.7% (8^th)	10.2% (21^st)
Rushing Rank	6.2% (7^th)	-14.4% (9^th)

Seattle’s offense struggles with pass protection and converting third and fourth downs. According to Football Outsiders, Seattle’s offensive line ranked dead last in pass protection, allowing an adjusted sack rate of 9.6%, well above the league average of 7%. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson’s mobility may account for some of that high rate, but certainly not all of it. Seattle ranked a mediocre 17^th in 3^rd down conversion rate this season, converting only 37.3% of their third downs. Seattle also only went 6 of 11 on fourth down. Expect Seattle to run the ball behind Marshawn Lynch and try to put themselves in third and short. The longer the Seahawks keep Manning on the sideline the better. Luckily for Seattle, Denver’s defense ranked only 21^st with a 6.5% adjusted sack rate and has been ravaged by injuries to key defenders like Von Miller and Chris Harris. Seattle’s offense should be able to score on the Denver defense although that’s what most people (including myself) thought about the Patriots offense two weeks ago.

Denver Offense vs. Seattle Defense

	Denver Offense	Seattle Defense
Overall DVOA (rank)	33.7% (1^st)	-25.8% (1^st)
Weighted DVOA (rank)	27.1% (1^st)	-30.0% (1^st)
Passing DVOA (rank)	60.7% (1^st)	-34.3% (1^st)
Rushing DVOA (rank)	4.3% (10^th)	-15.1% (8^th)

Denver had the best passing offensive in the league and Seattle had the best secondary. Denver also had the best offensive line for pass protection according to Football Outsiders allowing a 3.7% adjusted sack rate, nearly half the league average. Seattle’s defensive line featured the 7^th best adjusted sack rate at 7.6%. If Denver’s line can give Manning time he should be able to read Seattle’s defense and exploit it. Seattle will try to disrupt Manning’s timing and rhythm and timing. I imagine Manning will run the no-huddle early to prevent Denver from substituting. Keep an eye out for tight end Julius Thomas and screen passes to neutralize the physical Seahawks defensive backs. Denver’s offense excelled at third and fourth downs. Denver converted 46.3% of its third downs, good for second in the league. It also went 8 of 9 on fourth down. If Denver converts its third downs and puts together long scoring drives, Seattle may not score enough points to stay in the game.

Special Teams

	Seattle	Denver
Special Teams DVOA (rank)	4.8% (5^th)	-1.1% (21^st)
Weighted Special Teams DVOA (rank)	5.1% (6^th)	-5.3% (28^th)

With Denver’s Matt Prater and Seattle’s Steven Hauschka, this game will feature two of the better kickers in the league. Prater went 25 of 26 on field goal attempts this year and Hauschka went 33 of 35. Both kickers have strong legs as Prater only missed one field goal, a 52 yarder against Kansas City. Hauschka had a kick blocked against Indianapolis and missed a 24 yard field goal against Arizona. This game may very well come down to a last second kick by one of these two.

Prediction

The betting line favors Denver by 2.5 points. If I were a betting man (and I am not), I would take Seattle and the points. My gut thinks that Manning will play brilliantly and win his second Super Bowl. My gut also hates the Seahawks, their stupid 12^th man, and their penchant for PED suspensions. My brain, however, can’t get past Seattle’s otherworldly defense. I’ll go with my brain (and hope my gut is right):

Seattle 24-Denver 20.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Homeland Season 2

It was the best of shows. It was the worst of shows. It was Homeland Season 2. The first season of Homeland featured sterling performances from Damien Lewis, Claire Danes, and Mandy Patinkin. Showrunners Alex Gansa and Howard Gordon built the plot slowly and methodically. By the end of the season, Marine Sergeant and former POW Nicholas Brody (Lewis) strapped a suicide vest on, ready to blow up himself, Vice President Walden (Jamey Sheridan), and a host of other luminaries. The Emmy Awards lavished Homeland with praise, awarding Homeland Emmys for Outstanding Drama Series, Best Actor for Lewis, Best Actress for Danes, and for Outstanding Writing. In its second season, Lewis, Danes, and Patinkin delivered some of the best dramatic acting on television, but increasingly ludicrous plotting, exponentially expanding gaps in logic, and the desire to turn Lewis and Danes into a romantic couple undermined the entire season.

The writing and acting in the episode “Q&A” represented Homeland at its peak. The majority of the action in “Q&A” occurs in the basement of a CIA safe house as Carrie Mathison (Danes) interrogates Brody about his failed suicide bombing. As Brody continually denies his membership in a terrorist cell and his attempt to assassinate the Vice President, Carrie continually questions and prods him about his family, his relationship to the terror cell, his eight years as a POW, and their own lurid sexual history. The episode, building on the events of the series, shows how Carrie breaks through the web of tenuous lies holding Brody’s psyche together. The interrogation scenes prove emotionally devastating as Carrie digs deeper and deeper into Brody’s (and ultimately her own) damaged mind. Lewis excels at portraying Body’s desperate attempts to lie his way out the situation—hoping that just one more lie will set him free. Danes ably portrays Carrie’s fragility and damaged psyche as she works to elicit Brody’s confession. The episode is the product of great writing, built on the history that these characters share, and is brilliantly executed by Danes and Lewis.

Mandy Patinkin’s Saul Berenson, Carrie’s CIA supervisor, has several standout episodes. Patinkin’s acting nearly salvages the utter stupidity of the season finale, “The Choice.” He delivers in a wide range of moments, covering anger, hope, grief, and relief in a short 65 minutes. Saul verbally eviscerates Carrie for considering leaving the CIA to start a new life with Brody. After seeing Carrie alive following a terrorist bombing at the CIA, Patinkin allows a smile to cross Saul’s face, relieved that in the midst of all the horror that Carrie has survived. He mourns his dead colleagues while saying the Kaddish over a room full of bodies. Patinkin displays Saul’s simultaneous elation and anguish at receiving a phone call from his estranged wife, who promises to return home. While Patinkin did not win an Emmy for the first season, he is the equal of Danes and Lewis.

While Lewis, Danes, and Patinkin offered terrific acting, the progressively inane plotlines overwhelmed Homeland Season 2. The ridiculousness began early in the season with terrorist/reporter/plot expediter Roya Hammad sending Brody on a mission to Gettysburg to transport the tailor who supplied him with a suicide vest to a safe house. In order to do this, Brody skipped a fundraiser with the Vice President and a chance to solidify their growing relationship. The trip to Gettysburg ended with Brody accidentally choking the tailor to death while explaining to Jessica, his wife, why he could not attend the fundraiser. Other absurd plot lines included Brody’s daughter Dana and Finn, the son of the Vice President Walden, running over a woman with a car and then covering it up; terror mastermind Abu Nazir murdering the Vice President via a wireless connection to his pacemaker; and Nazir’s ninja death squad murdering a team of CIA agents at the tailor’s shop in Gettysburg in broad daylight and walking out the front door with a chest full of explosives. In “The Choice” Brody becomes America’s Most Wanted after his car explodes at a CIA memorial service for Walden. Somehow the Secret Service and the CIA did not notice someone move Brody’s car right next to the building hosting the service. No security personnel, at any point, noticed a large SUV parked in a restricted area? Really? These increasingly preposterous plot points created a jarring disconnect between the grounded and believable characters and a world around them that seemed hell-bent on descending into mindboggling stupidity.

The writers of Homeland also made a major error by positioning Carrie and Brody as a romantic couple. The first season demonstrated how the experiences of the Iraq War psychologically damaged Carrie and Brody. As Carrie investigated whether Brody was indeed a terrorist, she recognized Brody as a similarly injured soul. As Carrie grew closer to Brody to further her investigation, they engaged in several sexual encounters as Brody attempted to figure out whether Carrie had confirmed his true loyalties. The way these two deeply psychologically scarred people played each other represented one of the highlights of the first season that culminated in “Q&A.” As the season dragged on, however, the writers attempted to convince the audience that Carrie and Brody actually had a deep and romantic love for each other. This notion rang false to what made these two characters interesting when paired together. Carrie’s love of Brody, as she identified him as similarly damaged to her and had him under surveillance for months, makes a certain amount of sense. His unconditional love of her does not. He after all, revealed her mental state to the CIA which resulted in her losing her job and undergoing electroshock therapy. Yet in “The Choice” they retreat to Carrie’s family cabin to discuss their future together and act as if they can leave the past behind—a brutally damaging past where he did terrible things to her in service of a terrorist plot. Brody’s confession that he saved her life over Walden’s is hardly the romantic gesture that the show would like the audience to believe. Brody attempted to kill the Vice President once and aided in Nazir’s plan to kill him a second time. With Carrie aiding Brody’s escape following the CIA bombing, the Carrie-Brody love story seems destined to continue into the third season.

In its second season, Homeland’s illogical plotting undercut the outstanding performances by Lewis, Danes, and Patinkin and pushed Brody and Carrie in a direction that I have no interest in following.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

AFC Championship Preview: New England vs. Denver

On Sunday, the Patriots and Broncos will play for the AFC championship in Denver. They last met in Week 12 at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots had a 2% win expectancy going into halftime down 24-0. They, however, rallied for a 34-31 overtime win. The Patriots fumbled on three consecutive opening drives and the game featured 11 fumbles. After the Patriots took a 31-24 lead, Peyton Manning completed an 11 yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas to tie the game and force OT. The Patriots won the toss and took the wind. Late in the overtime period, Bronco Tony Carter touched a Ryan Allen punt and Nate Ebner recovered the ball at the Denver 11 yard line. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski hit a 31 yard field goal 1:56 remaining to win the game for the Patriots.

The AFC championship game should bear little resemblance to the Week 12 matchup. Both teams have undergone significant injuries and personnel changes. Denver will have its head coach, John Fox, on the sidelines this weekend. In Week 12, Fox was still recovering from heart surgery, leaving defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio as the interim coach. Cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, injured during the game, and tight end Julius Thomas, who missed the Week 12 game with an injury, will play on Sunday. Denver has also lost cornerback Chris Harris and linebacker Von Miller to season ending injuries. The Patriots lost their supremely talented, but oft injured, tight end Rob Gronkowski to an ACL tear in Week 14 against Cleveland. Run blocking linebacker Brandon Spikes was also recently placed on IR.

Keeping all this in mind, how do these teams match up this week?

Overall

According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric* that includes the playoffs and weighs the end of the season more heavily, the teams compare this way:

	Patriots	Denver
Total DVOA (overall rank)	30.4% (2^nd)	27.2% (3^rd)

Using regular season DVOA, they compare this way:

	Patriots	Denver
DVOA (overall rank)	19.0% (5^th)	32.8% (2^nd)

The Patriots of the past few weeks have been the second best team in the league, comparing favorably to the Broncos. Denver’s DVOA suggests that they have played extremely well across the entire season, finishing 2^nd in regular season DVOA for the second straight year.

Patriots Offense vs. Denver Defense

	Patriots Offense	Denver Defense
Overall DVOA (rank)	16.4% (4^th)	-0.2% (15^th)
Weighted DVOA (rank)	26.2% (2^nd)	-5.6% (10^th)
Passing Rank	28.1% (7^th)	10.2% (21^st)
Rushing Rank	7.0% (6^th)	-14.4% (9^th)

In Week 12, Brandon Bolden led the Patriots with 58 yards rushing. The Patriots benched LeGarrette Blount and Steven Ridley because of the aforementioned fumbling problems. Since the loss of Gronkowski, the Patriots have reinvented their offense, becoming a power running team behind LeGarrette Blount. Steven Ridley has become the second back, replacing Blount for stretches and Shane Vereen serves a pass receiver and third down back. In order to win Sunday, the Patriots will need to continue to attack with their running game. If the Patriots offensive line can manhandle Denver’s front four, like they have against the Colts and Bills, New England could grab the upper hand. A successful running game would keep Manning on the sidelines and allow Brady to use play action against the weakened Denver secondary. The Denver defense will have to stop the running game up front and hope for another fumble fest.

Denver Offense vs. Patriots Defense

	Denver Offense	Patriots Defense
Overall DVOA (rank)	33.7% (1^st)	4.1% (21^st)
Weighted DVOA (rank)	27.1% (1^st)	9.2% (24^th)
Passing DVOA (rank)	60.7% (1^st)	3.9% (14^th)
Rushing DVOA (rank)	4.3% (10^th)	4.3% (27^th)

Denver’s record breaking offense this season holds a major advantage over the injury riddled Patriots defense. The early season losses of Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, and Jerrod Mayo gutted the Patriots run defense. Denver ran early and often against the Patriots in Week 12 as Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno ran for 224 yards on 37 carries averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Monte Ball added another 40 yards on 7 rushes. In the first game, New England focused on stopping Denver’s potent passing attack. The Patriots held Demaryius Thomas to 4 catches for 41 yards, Wes Welker to 4 catches for 31 yards, and Eric Decker caught 1 pass for 5 yards. With Moreno slicing through New England’s defense, the Broncos did not need to throw the ball that much. Manning completed 19 of 36 passes for 150 yards although the wind clearly hampered his passing. Denver should hand the ball off to Moreno and Ball and exploit the weakened Patriots defense. The Patriots defense will have to pick their poison and try to pressure Manning early and get him out of his offensive rhythm.

Special Teams

	Patriots	Denver
Special Teams DVOA (rank)	6.7% (2^nd)	-1.1% (21^st)
Weighted Special Teams DVOA (rank)	7.6% (4^th)	-5.3% (28^th)

The Patriots hold a clear advantage on special teams. Both teams have excellent field goal kickers with Stephen Gostkowski ranking first in Football Outsiders kicking metrics and Denver’s Matt Prater ranking third. The matchup between Patriots punter Ryan Allen and the Denver punt returners presents the biggest mismatch on special teams. Allen is a very good directional punter and the Broncos have struggled returning punts.

Final Analysis

This game should look nothing like the Week 12 matchup. The Patriots have completely overhauled their offense. Denver has lost several key players to injury. The game should hinge on the effectiveness of each team’s running game. If LeGarrette Blount can gobble up four or five yards at a time, the Patriots should be able to pick apart Denver’s weakened secondary. If Moreno gashes the Patriots defense, Denver should score plenty of points. With Brady and Manning meeting for the fifteenth time, I imagine one of them will be driving down the field with the game on the line—I just hope its Brady.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Playoff Preview

The Saints-Eagles game on Saturday night offers the most exciting matchup of this weekend’s opening round. Both teams feature high scoring offenses with aggressive and innovative head coaches. New Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has revitalized the moribund Saints defense and first year Eagles Chip Kelly has successfully translated his up-tempo offense from college to the pros. Let’s break down the teams and see how they compare on offense and defense.

OFFENSE

Before analyzing the component parts of each offense, let’s look them as a whole. DVOA is a statistical measure from Football Outsiders and it contextualizes and measures each team according to its offense, defense, and special teams. A more thorough explanation of DVOA can be found here.

	Points	Yards per Game	Points per Game	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Weighted Offensive DVOA*
Eagles	442	417.3	27.6	2nd	3rd
Saints	414	399.4	25.9	5th	5th

* Weighted DVOA places more emphasis on recent performance, so it serves as a good indicator of the effectiveness of the offense at the end of the season.

The Eagles hold slight edges in points, yards, and DVOA. Overall, in a game featuring two of the top five offenses in the league, the Eagles hold a slight advantage.

QUARTERBACKS

	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Completion %	QBR (rank overall)
Nick Foles (PHI)	2,891	27	2	64.4%	69 (4^th)
Drew Brees (NO)	5,162	39	12	68.8%	70.5 (3^rd)

Foles assumed the starter’s job following an injury to Michael Vick in early October and produced some impressive numbers. Commentators have raved about his lack of interceptions and his two picks may seem impressive. They are, however, a product of luck. Foles threw a interception on only 0.60% of his passing attempts this season. The league average is 2.9%. Had Foles produced a league average INT rate he would have thrown 9 picks. His touchdown to interception ratio would then be 27-9, right in line with Brees’s. In this matchup, the Saints and Brees have the advantage.

RUNNING GAMES

LeSean McCoy of the Eagles led the NFL in rushing this season. The Saints, meanwhile, rotated Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson, and Mark Ingram through their RB slot.

	Rushing Yards	Yards per Rush	Touchdowns	Yards per Game
McCoy	1,607	5.1	9	100.4
Saints RBs	1,473	3.8	10	92.1

The Philadelphia rushing attack ranked 1^st according to DVOA, the Saints ranked 19^th. The Eagles featured the best running back in the NFL and hold a significant advantage over the Saints running attack.

RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TDs	Yards Per Game
PHI	4,110	6.9	25	257
NO	4,918	7.9	39	307

The Saints feature the 3^rd ranked passing attack according to DVOA, while the Eagles ranked 5^th. The Saints have a varied offensive attack. They have a great pass-catcher out of the backfield in Sproles. Jimmy Graham creates major matchup problems for defenses out of the tight end spot. Brees has targeted rookie Kenny Stills on downfield throws. Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Robert Meachem are all reliable targets in the middle of the field. The Eagles heavily rely on the explosiveness of DeSean Jackson. McCoy and Riley Cooper represent the Eagles other passing threats. The Saints have the advantage in the passing attack.

DEFENSE

Defending against these offenses will prove challenging for both teams. Under Ryan, the Saints defense improved from historic disaster to above average. The Eagles defense began the season poorly before improving near the end of the season. According to DVOA, the Saints defense finished 10^th best in the league and 9^th in weighted DVOA. The Saints defended well against the pass with the 6^th best pass defense, but their rushing defense ranked only 20^th. Unfortunately for the Saints, the Eagles feature the league’s best running attack. The Eagles, meanwhile, ranked 23^rd in DVOA, but 15^th in weighted DVOA. Their pass defense finished the year in 25^th place and 12^th in rushing. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Saints have the 3^rd best passing attack in the NFL. Saints TE Jimmy Graham has a very favorable matchup against the Eagles defense. The Eagles defense ranked 24^th overall in DVOA against tight ends. If the Saints can feed Graham the ball early and often, the Eagles could be in for a long day. If LeSean McCoy can find running lanes, the Saints could be heading back to the bayou Saturday night.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Eagles and Saints field below average special teams. The Saints and Eagles finished 24^th and 25^th in DVOA. Both teams have struggled in the return game, posting below average numbers. Saints punter Thomas Morstead produced another strong season. He ranked 3^rd in the NFL with a net yard average of 42.3 on his punts. Eagles punter Donnie Jones finished 9^th with a 40.5 net yard average. Eagles kicker Alex Henry offered league average production, hitting 82.1% of his field goals. He made 23 of 28 field goal attempts. Sean Payton is desperately seeking stability from his kicker. Garrett Hartley, who was released before Week 16, converted only 73.3% (22 of 30) field goal attempts—good for 31^st in the league. According to Football Outsiders, Hartley cost the Saints nearly 14 points as a result of his field goal misses. The Saints, however, signed Shayne Graham, with his career 85.467% conversion rate (10^th among active players, and 11^th all-time), to stabilize the kicking game. Graham’s replacement of Hartley eliminated the weakest part of the Saints’ special teams.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Since the Saints and Eagles offensive strengths correspond to the opposing defense’s weaknesses, the game should come down to which offense can execute most effectively. Payton, Brees, and the Saints passing game should be able to exploit the Eagles weak secondary. Kelly, Foles, and McCoy should be able to find running lanes and attack the Saints front seven.

Saints 34, Eagles 31