2014 NL Preview

            With the Major League Baseball season beginning in earnest this week, I wanted to make some predictions for each league and then individual awards and playoffs. Since, in the words of screenwriter William Goldman, nobody knows anything, I admit I have no idea how the season will turn out. I wrote this solely to amuse myself. Today, I will cover the National League. Later in the week, I will address the American League and the playoffs/individual awards. 

 NL East: Projected W-L

Washington Nationals: 93-69

            I think the Nationals take a leap forward this season. Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Jordan Zimmerman, and Gio Gonzalez anchor a strong starting rotation. Their lineup should score plenty of runs behind Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, and Jayson Werth. They also have the advantage of playing some very weak teams within their own division (the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins).  

Atlanta Braves: 86-76

            Injuries have already felled Braves starters Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen for the entire season. Meanwhile Gavin Floyd continues his recovery from a UCL tear and Mike Minor has struggled with a sore shoulder. Recent signee Ervin Santana will lead the patchwork pitching staff. The Braves will need outfielder B.J. Upton and second baseman Dan Uggla to offer some level of competency to bolster the team’s offense.

New York Mets: 77-85

            This season the Mets will begin their climb back towards respectability. By next season, they will have three young and promising starters in Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Matt Harvey. David Wright continues to be one of better third basemen in the league. Travis d’Arnaud could be a significant upgrade at catcher. The best outcome for the Mets may be closing in on a .500 season.

Philadelphia Phillies: 75-87

            The Phillies have two ace left-handed pitchers in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Unfortunately that’s about all they have.  Ben Revere, with a .324 career OBP, will lead off in front of an aging Jimmy Rollins, an oft-injured Chase Utley, and the corpse of Ryan Howard. But good news, Phillies fans, they only owe closer Jonathan Papelbon 26 million dollars over the next two years and Ryan Howard 85 million over the next three!  There are long days ahead in Philadelphia.

Miami  Marlins: 74-88

            Giancarlo Stanton’s 40 home run power and Jose Fernandez’s dazzling pitching are the only reasons to watch this pathetic franchise.

NL Central 

St. Louis Cardinals: 94-68

            The Cardinals have a deep roster and have improved on last year’s World Series team. I would rather see flamethrowers Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen. Yet the Cardinals rotation will include staff ace Adam Wainwright and second year pitchers Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller. Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina highlight a deep lineup.   

Pittsburgh Pirates: 82-80

            The Pirates will likely regress from last year’s playoff team. A.J. Burnett signed with the Phillies. Francisco Liriano will likely not repeat his otherworldly numbers from last season. The Pirates also have a gaping hole at 1B. If outfielder Gregory Polanco and starting pitcher Jamieson Taillon arrive midseason, then the Pirates might hang around in the wildcard race. They will likely finish the season around .500.

Cincinnati Reds: 78-84

            Last season, the Reds featured only two above average hitters in their lineup, Joey Votto and Shin Soo Choo. And Choo now plays for the Texas Rangers. As long as out-machines Billy Hamilton and Zack Cosart occupy spots in the lineup and second baseman Brandon Phillips continues his march toward mediocrity, the Reds will have trouble scoring runs. Their rotation will need a lot of healthy starts from Mat Latos and Homer Bailey to cover their other weaknesses.

Milwaukee Brewers: 76-86

            Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Khris Davis comprise one of the strongest outfields in the league. If third baseman Aramis Ramirez can hit 25 homers, the Brewers might survive starting Lyle Overbay at first base and Scooter Gennett at second. Unfortunately third starters like Yovanni Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, and Matt Garza populate their starting rotation. If the pitching staff can improve, the Brewers may be a surprise wild-card contender.  

Chicago Cubs: 66-96

            Theo Epstein’s rebuilding effort will soon pay off. By next season, the Cubs infield could feature four starters 25 years old and younger: 1B Anthony Rizzo (25), 2B Javier Baez (22), SS Starlin Castro (25), and 3B Kris Bryant (23). Bryant and outfielder Jorge Soler will continue their climb up the organizational ladder this season. The Cubs are still a year or two away, but their young talent is coming… and soon.

NL West 

Los Angeles Dodgers: 91-71

            Two hundred and twenty five million dollars can’t always buy a World Series championship, but it can probably buy an NL West division title. With Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Dodgers should have one of two best starting rotation in the NL (the other being the Nationals). They also have a strong offense behind Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Yaisel “Won’t somebody please think of the children!” Puig.

San Francisco Giants: 87-75

            This could be a bounce-back year for the Giants. Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain headline a strong pitching staff. Improving first baseman Brandon Belt and newly svelte third baseman Pablo Sandoval should help catcher Buster Posey and outfielder Hunter Pence to form an above average offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 81-81

            Newly acquired slugger Mark Trumbo will pair with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to form a strong nucleus for the starting lineup. The loss of starter Patrick Corbin to injury will hurt the Diamondbacks starting rotation. The Diamondbacks have also hurt their future by trading away young players like Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Bauer, Matt Davidson, and Adam Eaton for little in return.

San Diego Padres: 79-83

            The Padres have some intriguing young players like second baseman Jedd Gyorko and shortstop Evereth Cabrera. They also have a lot of average to mediocre players like Carlos Quentin and Tyson Ross. The Padres should be competitive, but don’t expect much more.

Colorado Rockies: 68-94

            The Rockies have superstar caliber players in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Injuries, however, cause Tulowitzki and Gonzalez to routinely miss one to two months every season. Star pitching prospects Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray offer hope for the future, as soon as next season. But not soon enough for the 2014 Rockies. 

The Great Centerfield Debate: Bradley Jr. vs Sizemore

            Spring training statistics are meaningless. Yet every year, baseball fans and media alike drool over the hot start of some player. In 2013, Boston Red Sox fans salivated over the potential of outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Bradley batted .419/.507/.613 in 62 spring training at bats. Yet Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy, the epitome of a sportswriter who long ago stopped caring about his sport, being good at his job, or trying to write a cogent sentence, described Bradley as “a spotless soul with no baggage and no attachments to the hardball horrors that have plagued this franchise since the final days of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein.”[1] NESN declared that “Jackie Bradley Jr.’s time is now.”[2]

            In 2014, Red Sox fans and media have fixated on Grady Sizemore. A former All-Star center fielder, Sizemore has not played in the majors since 2011. This spring, however, Sizemore has produced a .381/.409/.429 batting line in 21 at bats. This absurdly small sample size has stirred conversations about Sizemore becoming the starting center fielder for the Red Sox. ESPN Boston reported that Daniel Nava would play a bit of center field this spring, inferring that the Red Sox would start the season with Sizemore in center.[3] CBS Sports’s Jon Heyman recently declared that Grady Sizemore’s “revival is something to behold.”[4] Sizemore’s competition for the center field job is none other than last year’s sensation, Jackie Bradley Jr.  

            The Sizemore-Bradley debate raises several important issues regarding how major league teams function versus how media and fans cover them. First, teams and most intelligent fans know that spring training stats do not predict future success. Bradley struggled in the majors last season, despite his spring training accomplishments. In 107 plate appearances, he produced a .189/.280/.337 batting line, with 3 home runs, five doubles, 10 walks and 31 strikeouts. Recognizing small sample sizes, however, does not drive pageviews or fill time on NESN. So we are subjected to endless coverage of Sizemore’s 8 hits in 21 at bats. What if two of those hits had been outs? Does Sizemore warrant this much attention if he were hitting .285 instead of .381?

            The second issue revolves around the relative value of Bradley and Sizemore for this coming season. How do they compare as players? And what can we reasonably expect from them? First, I want to compare the two players using Fangraphs’ ZIPS projection system.

Sizemore vs. Bradley (Fangraphs ZIPS projection system)

	Games	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
Sizemore	40	169	.227	.290	.383	81	0.1
Bradley	117	498	.245	.322	.375	90	1.5

            The projections suggest that Bradley will receive more at-bats and provide more value than Sizemore. Bradley holds the edge in AVG, OBP, wRC+, and WAR. Sizemore has a little more power. We should, however, not stop here. At this point, Sizemore and Bradley are at different parts of their careers. We should compare their relative strengths as players. This will involve comparing Sizemore’s major league career and Bradley’s minor league one. (Note: Just because Bradley has a higher OBP or AVG doesn’t mean he’s a better player or will be, the point is to look at them in general sense, to see what they do well.)             

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	K %	BB %
Sizemore	4047	.269	.357	.473	20.2	10.6
Bradley	989	.297	.404	.471	17.4	13.3

           

Both players bat lefthanded and play center field. They work the strike zone as evidenced by their high walk rates. Sizemore is (and has been) the better power hitter.

            During his three year peak from 2006-2008, Sizemore played at an MVP level. He produced 7.8, 6.2, and 7.2 WAR seasons. He never hit fewer than 24 home runs, scored fewer than 101 runs, and generated wRC+s of 132, 129, and 132. Sizemore’s body, however, broke down. From 2009-2011, he played in 211 out of 486 possible games (43%). He has not played in the majors since 2011. His injury history is long and frightening. In 2009, Sizemore had surgery on his left elbow and for a sports hernia. In 2010, he had microfracture surgery to repair his injured left knee. In 2011, he suffered a right knee contusion and required a second sports hernia surgery. In 2012, he had back surgery and a microfracture surgery on his right knee to fix a previous arthroscopic procedure. Since 2011, he has suffered continual setbacks in his recovery. He sat out the entire 2013 season. This string of injuries suggests a systematic breakdown within his body. Sizemore’s recent history suggests that playing every day would lead to further injuries.

            Bradley offers strong defense, the ability to take a walk, health, and the potential to become a valuable starter. Fangraphs ranked Bradley as the second best prospect in the Sox system behind Xander Bogaerts. Marc Hulet wrote, “Bradley’s greatest asset is his above-average defense in center field, which comes from excellent reads, good range and a solid arm. At the plate, he shows a patient approach and isn’t afraid to work the count. He doesn’t have plus power but it could be average or a tick above. He should hit at the top of a big league lineup, although he lacks impact speed.” Sox Prospects also ranks Bradley second in the Sox system. They emphasize his intelligence, strong defensive instincts, and strong pitch recognition. At his peak, Bradley will offer above average defense, good on-base skills, and perhaps league average power. He has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career.

            In great center field debate of 2014, Sizemore offers some upside, but his body might be made of popsicle sticks. Bradley Jr. could become the center fielder of the Red Sox for the foreseeable future.

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[1] http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/03/31/jackie-bradley-offers-red-sox-fans-hope-for-coming-season/0U1fxb1ZILe7hPAPYHCVAN/story.html

[2] http://nesn.com/playlist/john-lackeys-progress-david-ortizs-uncertain-status-among-things-to-take-away-from-spring-training/9/

[3] http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/35129/sox-to-take-a-look-at-nava-in-center-as-potential-backup

[4] http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24490200/the-grady-gamble-so-far-sizemore-revival-is-something-to-behold

The Americans

            In The Americans, Keri Russell and Matthew Rhys play Elizabeth and Phillip Jennings, a pair of KGB spies on a deep cover mission in the United States. The KGB carefully trained Phillip and Elizabeth to assimilate into American culture. They did not allow Phillip and Elizabeth to know about each other’s pre-KGB lives or to speak Russian to each other. In the United States, Phillip and Elizabeth run a Washington D.C. travel agency and have two children, Paige and Henry. The first season of the show impressed with its strong cast of characters and performances, a compelling grasp of the escalating Cold War in the 1980s, and a wholehearted embrace of the moral ambiguity of spycraft.

            Russell especially shines as the true-believer Elizabeth. The first season charts Elizabeth’s devotion to the Soviet Union and her distrust of her handler, Claudia (Margo Martindale, and the orders coming from Moscow Centre. Elizabeth truly believes in the supremacy of communism over the decadent West. She never eschews an opportunity to remind Phillip of corruption and evil of America. Her devotion sometimes blinds her to the reality of her situation. In a late season episode, Elizabeth and Phillip intercept and kill a KGB assassin. The KGB had ordered the assassin to start killing scientists related to the Strategic Defense Initiative Program, but then changed its mind. Moscow Centre then ordered Phillip and Elizabeth to stop him. She and Phillip manage to kill the assassin with his own bomb after a shootout in a hotel room. The assassin, however, had managed to kill one of the scientists. In the aftermath, Elizabeth chides herself for failing at the mission. Phillip, meanwhile, chides her for failing to realize the impossibility of their mission. He also tells her that the fault lies with Moscow Centre.

            Protecting his family serves as Phillip’s primary motivation. Over his time in America, Phillip has grown to care more about Elizabeth and the children than the Soviet Union. In the series premiere, he suggests defecting to the United States in order to secure a future for their children. The tension between Elizabeth’s devotion to the USSR and Phillip’s attachment to his family frames their relationship throughout the first season. Throughout the season, Phillip and Elizabeth continually trade places over their desire to continue their marriage. Maintaining their marriage proves difficult as they each must use sex to complete their missions.

            Showrunners Joe Weisburg and Joel Fields have successfully captured the feel of the 1980s and the escalating tension of the Cold War following the election of Ronald Reagan. Modern audiences, aware of the collapse of the Soviet Union, know that Phillip and Elizabeth wind up on the losing side of history. Yet the show effectively demonstrates why Soviet Union’s reliance on its nuclear arsenal would make the Strategic Defense Initiative’s missile defense shield so frightening. The show also plays the Soviets’ misunderstanding of American politics. Following the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan, the Soviets fear a coup led by Secretary of State (and former General) Alexander Haig. Only Phillip’s understanding of American politics, something Elizabeth lacks, defuses the situation. The show also captures the cultural zeitgeist of the 1980s. Phillip keeps his hair in a perm and Elizabeth sports high-waisted jeans. Paige complains about not having enough legwarmers. These cultural traits, mostly scorned by 21^st century Americans, are not played for laughs, but rather treated as part of their day-to-day lives.

            Finally The Americans willingly embraces the moral ambiguity of spycraft for both the Soviet Union and the United States. The show questions claims of moral superiority by either side and demonstrates that the Americans and Soviets will do whatever is necessary to win the Cold War. Phillip maintains a secret relationship with Martha, a secretary in the FBI counter-intelligence office. Phillip eventually marries Martha in order to continue his espionage activities. She proclaims her love for Phillip’s guise as “Clark,” a hardworking government counter-intelligence official. Elizabeth and Phillip manipulate, exploit, and murder American citizens in order to accomplish their missions and preserve their identities. Stan Beeman (Noah Emmerich), Elizabeth and Phillip’s new FBI agent neighbor, uses similar tactics. He blackmails Nina, an employee at the Soviet embassy, into becoming an FBI mole. Stan has Nina plant evidence on the KGB resident-in-charge in order to protect her. The FBI organizes an extralegal kidnapping of Vlad, a low level KGB official, in order to avenge the death of the American scientists. Stan then executes Vlad following the death of his partner. By embracing this moral ambiguity, the show challenges its viewers about who, if anyone, they are actually rooting for in the Cold War.  

            The Americans successfully mediates on the meaning of marriage and the ultimate purpose of the Cold War, making it one of the most dynamic and engaging shows on television.