Thursday, March 20, 2014

The Great Centerfield Debate: Bradley Jr. vs Sizemore

            Spring training statistics are meaningless. Yet every year, baseball fans and media alike drool over the hot start of some player. In 2013, Boston Red Sox fans salivated over the potential of outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Bradley batted .419/.507/.613 in 62 spring training at bats. Yet Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy, the epitome of a sportswriter who long ago stopped caring about his sport, being good at his job, or trying to write a cogent sentence, described Bradley as “a spotless soul with no baggage and no attachments to the hardball horrors that have plagued this franchise since the final days of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein.”[1] NESN declared that “Jackie Bradley Jr.’s time is now.”[2]
            In 2014, Red Sox fans and media have fixated on Grady Sizemore. A former All-Star center fielder, Sizemore has not played in the majors since 2011. This spring, however, Sizemore has produced a .381/.409/.429 batting line in 21 at bats. This absurdly small sample size has stirred conversations about Sizemore becoming the starting center fielder for the Red Sox. ESPN Boston reported that Daniel Nava would play a bit of center field this spring, inferring that the Red Sox would start the season with Sizemore in center.[3] CBS Sports’s Jon Heyman recently declared that Grady Sizemore’s “revival is something to behold.”[4] Sizemore’s competition for the center field job is none other than last year’s sensation, Jackie Bradley Jr.  
            The Sizemore-Bradley debate raises several important issues regarding how major league teams function versus how media and fans cover them. First, teams and most intelligent fans know that spring training stats do not predict future success. Bradley struggled in the majors last season, despite his spring training accomplishments. In 107 plate appearances, he produced a .189/.280/.337 batting line, with 3 home runs, five doubles, 10 walks and 31 strikeouts. Recognizing small sample sizes, however, does not drive pageviews or fill time on NESN. So we are subjected to endless coverage of Sizemore’s 8 hits in 21 at bats. What if two of those hits had been outs? Does Sizemore warrant this much attention if he were hitting .285 instead of .381?
            The second issue revolves around the relative value of Bradley and Sizemore for this coming season. How do they compare as players? And what can we reasonably expect from them? First, I want to compare the two players using Fangraphs’ ZIPS projection system.

Sizemore vs. Bradley (Fangraphs ZIPS projection system)


Games
PA
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
WAR
Sizemore
40
169
.227
.290
.383
81
0.1
Bradley
117
498
.245
.322
.375
90
1.5

            The projections suggest that Bradley will receive more at-bats and provide more value than Sizemore. Bradley holds the edge in AVG, OBP, wRC+, and WAR. Sizemore has a little more power. We should, however, not stop here. At this point, Sizemore and Bradley are at different parts of their careers. We should compare their relative strengths as players. This will involve comparing Sizemore’s major league career and Bradley’s minor league one. (Note: Just because Bradley has a higher OBP or AVG doesn’t mean he’s a better player or will be, the point is to look at them in general sense, to see what they do well.)             


PA
AVG
OBP
SLG
K %
BB %
Sizemore
4047
.269
.357
.473
20.2
10.6
Bradley
989
.297
.404
.471
17.4
13.3
           
Both players bat lefthanded and play center field. They work the strike zone as evidenced by their high walk rates. Sizemore is (and has been) the better power hitter.
            During his three year peak from 2006-2008, Sizemore played at an MVP level. He produced 7.8, 6.2, and 7.2 WAR seasons. He never hit fewer than 24 home runs, scored fewer than 101 runs, and generated wRC+s of 132, 129, and 132. Sizemore’s body, however, broke down. From 2009-2011, he played in 211 out of 486 possible games (43%). He has not played in the majors since 2011. His injury history is long and frightening. In 2009, Sizemore had surgery on his left elbow and for a sports hernia. In 2010, he had microfracture surgery to repair his injured left knee. In 2011, he suffered a right knee contusion and required a second sports hernia surgery. In 2012, he had back surgery and a microfracture surgery on his right knee to fix a previous arthroscopic procedure. Since 2011, he has suffered continual setbacks in his recovery. He sat out the entire 2013 season. This string of injuries suggests a systematic breakdown within his body. Sizemore’s recent history suggests that playing every day would lead to further injuries.
            Bradley offers strong defense, the ability to take a walk, health, and the potential to become a valuable starter. Fangraphs ranked Bradley as the second best prospect in the Sox system behind Xander Bogaerts. Marc Hulet wrote, “Bradley’s greatest asset is his above-average defense in center field, which comes from excellent reads, good range and a solid arm. At the plate, he shows a patient approach and isn’t afraid to work the count. He doesn’t have plus power but it could be average or a tick above. He should hit at the top of a big league lineup, although he lacks impact speed.” Sox Prospects also ranks Bradley second in the Sox system. They emphasize his intelligence, strong defensive instincts, and strong pitch recognition. At his peak, Bradley will offer above average defense, good on-base skills, and perhaps league average power. He has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career.
            In great center field debate of 2014, Sizemore offers some upside, but his body might be made of popsicle sticks. Bradley Jr. could become the center fielder of the Red Sox for the foreseeable future.

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