Super Bowl XLVIII Preview: Seattle-Denver

            For the first time since 2002, the top two teams according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric will meet in the Super Bowl. Additionally, the Denver-Seattle matchup will be the second time in the last twenty years when the top seeds from each conference advanced to the Super Bowl (New Orleans-Indianapolis in 2010 was the other). The game features a host of storylines that ESPN and other media outlets have beaten to death; Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense, Peyton Manning, Richard Sherman, the cold weather, hosting a Super Bowl in New Jersey, the cold weather, Peyton Manning in cold weather, the two states that legalized marijuana playing in the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning playing in a Super Bowl, and the cold weather Super Bowl in New Jersey. Very few of these storylines have any bearing on the outcome of the game. So let’s get down to it.

Overall

            According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric* that includes the playoffs and weighs the end of the season more heavily, the teams compare this way:

	Seattle	Denver
Total DVOA (overall rank)	38.6% (1st)	33.1% (2nd)
Total DVOA (weighted)	46.4% (1st)	28.2% (4th)

* A reminder, DVOA contextualizes and measures each team according to its offense, defense, and special teams; each percentage point represents one point above or below league average. Good offenses have positive DVOA scores and good defenses have negative ones. A more thorough explanation of DVOA can be found here. 

            No matter how you slice it, this game features the two best teams in the league. Seattle finished the season first in DVOA and weighted DVOA suggests that they’ve only gotten stronger as the season progressed. Denver’s high powered passing offense set new records for points and total yards. As Grantland’s Bill Barnwell has argued, the Denver offense ranks the best offense of all time, and Seattle’s defense stands as one of the ten greatest defenses ever.  The strengths of these teams suggest that this should be a great Super Bowl.

           

Seattle Offense vs. Denver Defense

	Seattle Offense	Denver Defense
Overall DVOA (rank)	9.4% (7th)	-0.2% (15th)
Weighted DVOA (rank)	8.7% (9th)	-5.6% (10th)
Passing Rank	27.7% (8th)	10.2% (21st)
Rushing Rank	6.2% (7th)	-14.4% (9th)

Seattle’s offense struggles with pass protection and converting third and fourth downs. According to Football Outsiders, Seattle’s offensive line ranked dead last in pass protection, allowing an adjusted sack rate of 9.6%, well above the league average of 7%. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson’s mobility may account for some of that high rate, but certainly not all of it. Seattle ranked a mediocre 17^th in 3^rd down conversion rate this season, converting only 37.3% of their third downs. Seattle also only went 6 of 11 on fourth down. Expect Seattle to run the ball behind Marshawn Lynch and try to put themselves in third and short. The longer the Seahawks keep Manning on the sideline the better. Luckily for Seattle, Denver’s defense ranked only 21^st with a 6.5% adjusted sack rate and has been ravaged by injuries to key defenders like Von Miller and Chris Harris. Seattle’s offense should be able to score on the Denver defense although that’s what most people (including myself) thought about the Patriots offense two weeks ago.

Denver Offense vs. Seattle Defense

	Denver Offense	Seattle Defense
Overall DVOA (rank)	33.7% (1st)	-25.8% (1st)
Weighted DVOA (rank)	27.1% (1st)	-30.0% (1st)
Passing DVOA (rank)	60.7% (1st)	-34.3% (1st)
Rushing DVOA (rank)	4.3% (10th)	-15.1% (8th)

            Denver had the best passing offensive in the league and Seattle had the best secondary. Denver also had the best offensive line for pass protection according to Football Outsiders allowing a 3.7% adjusted sack rate, nearly half the league average. Seattle’s defensive line featured the 7^th best adjusted sack rate at 7.6%. If Denver’s line can give Manning time he should be able to read Seattle’s defense and exploit it. Seattle will try to disrupt Manning’s timing and rhythm and timing. I imagine Manning will run the no-huddle early to prevent Denver from substituting. Keep an eye out for tight end Julius Thomas and screen passes to neutralize the physical Seahawks defensive backs. Denver’s offense excelled at third and fourth downs. Denver converted 46.3% of its third downs, good for second in the league. It also went 8 of 9 on fourth down. If Denver converts its third downs and puts together long scoring drives, Seattle may not score enough points to stay in the game.

Special Teams

	Seattle	Denver
Special Teams DVOA (rank)	4.8% (5th)	-1.1% (21st)
Weighted Special Teams DVOA (rank)	5.1% (6th)	-5.3% (28th)

            With Denver’s Matt Prater and Seattle’s Steven Hauschka, this game will feature two of the better kickers in the league. Prater went 25 of 26 on field goal attempts this year and Hauschka went 33 of 35. Both kickers have strong legs as Prater only missed one field goal, a 52 yarder against Kansas City. Hauschka had a kick blocked against Indianapolis and missed a 24 yard field goal against Arizona. This game may very well come down to a last second kick by one of these two.

Prediction

            The betting line favors Denver by 2.5 points. If I were a betting man (and I am not), I would take Seattle and the points. My gut thinks that Manning will play brilliantly and win his second Super Bowl. My gut also hates the Seahawks, their stupid 12^th man, and their penchant for PED suspensions. My brain, however, can’t get past Seattle’s otherworldly defense. I’ll go with my brain (and hope my gut is right):

Seattle 24-Denver 20.