On December
16, 2009, the Boston Red Sox signed pitcher John Lackey to a five year, 82.5
million dollar contract. The deal included a 3.5 million dollar salary bonus,
an 18 million dollar salary in 2010, and 15.25 million from 2011-2014. The
contract also included a vesting option at the league minimum salary (about
five hundred thousand dollars) for 2015 if Lackey missed significant time
because of a pre-existing elbow injury. Lackey missed the 2012 season following
Tommy John surgery on that elbow.
After the
“Fried Chicken and Beer” fiasco of 2011 and Lackey’s subsequent surgery, his
contract seemed like a total bust. It was another example why giving five year
contracts to older pitchers rarely work out. Yet when Lackey returned to the
Red Sox in 2013, he pitched effectively. His season culminated with a 6 2/3
inning pitching performance in Game 6 of the World Series. A closer look at
Lackey’s pitching performance since Tommy John surgery suggests that the deal
might not be a total bust after all. (All Stats courtesy of Fangraphs)
|
|
IP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
|
2010
|
215
|
6.53
|
3.01
|
4.40
|
3.85
|
3.9
|
|
2011
|
160
|
6.08
|
3.15
|
6.41
|
4.71
|
1.6
|
|
2013
|
189.1
|
7.65
|
1.90
|
3.52
|
3.86
|
3.2
|
|
2014
|
53
|
8.88
|
1.87
|
3.57
|
3.22
|
1.3
|
|
Career Avg
|
-
|
7.13
|
2.63
|
4.04
|
3.88
|
39.0
|
In 2013 and 2014, Lackey has dramatically
improved his K/9 rate. He has transformed himself from an average strikeout
pitcher to a great one. His walk rate declined from over 3 batters per nine
innings to well under two. His FIP (for an explanation see here) has similarly
climbed from average to something slighter better than that.
What
accounts for Lackey’s improvement? In 2013, he arrived at Red Sox camp in much
better shape than in previous years. While losing weight certainly helped, it
cannot account for such a striking transformation. In doing some research, I
looked at Lackey’s pitch usage over his time on the Red Sox and noticed some
pretty big changes.
|
|
Four Seam Fastball %
|
Two Seam Fastball %
|
Cut-Fastball %
|
Slider %
|
Curve %
|
Changeup %
|
|
2010
|
15.2
|
4.8
|
41.9
|
9.2
|
24.1
|
4.6
|
|
2011
|
15.1
|
2.4
|
34.7
|
22.1
|
17.7
|
7.8
|
|
2013
|
52.0
|
4.9
|
29.3
|
0.9
|
10.4
|
2.6
|
|
2014
|
59.0
|
8.1
|
20.9
|
|
9.7
|
0.7
|
In 2010 and
2011, Lackey threw his four seam fastball only about 15% of the time. Instead he
relied on his cutter, curveball, and a slider (a pitch he no longer throws
according to PitchF/x data). Since 2013,
Lackey has leaned heavily on his four seamer. He has cut back on his cut
fastball and curveball and incorporated his two-seam fastball more into his
repertoire.
Since
Lackey has relied on his four seamer more, what has that done for the
effectiveness of his other pitches?
|
|
Hitters AVG/OBP/SLG
against Two Seam Fastball
|
Hitters AVG/OBP/SLG
against Cut Fastball
|
Hitters AVG/OBP/SLG
against Curveball
|
|
2010
|
.371/.463/.543
|
.258/.323/.395
|
.266/.335/.410
|
|
2011
|
.350/.409/.500
|
.312/.397/.523
|
.336/.400/.462
|
|
2013
|
.205/.220/.308
|
.226/.280/.359
|
.233/.243/.438
|
|
2014
|
.100/.250/.200
|
.204/.250/.347
|
.353/.389/.412
|
In 2011,
major league hitters smacked Lackey around like a rag doll. Against Lackey,
major league hitters were the equivalent of Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday
(career .310/.386/.527 with a career wRC+ of 139—39% better than the average
hitter). In 2013 and 2014, they’ve hit more like a 2013 version of Yuniesky
Betancourt (.212/.240/.355 and a 56 wRC+).
How has
Lackey made such improvements so late in his career? Compare Lackey’s average
pitch location on his cut fastball between 2011 and 2013. (Pitch location courtesy of http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/)
2011
2013
Looking at
location charts for Lackey’s other pitches reveal a similar pattern. In 2011,
Lackey left his pitches over the heart of the plate and hitters crushed them. In
2013, Lackey kept his pitches on the outer edges of the strike zone. As a result
of his better location, Lackey has improved his strikeout rate, getting more
hitters to swing and miss at strikes: 9.8% in 2013 and 10.8% in 2014 (well
above his career rate of 8.7%).
If Lackey
can continue his improved pitch location, his contract may not have been a
bargain, but it won’t have been a total bust either.
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