According
to Fangraphs’ playoff
odds, the Boston Red Sox have 14.5% chance of making the playoffs. Through
June 27, their record stands at 33-42, eight games behind the division leading
Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox have scored 308 runs, good for 15th in
the majors and they’ve allowed 352, ranking 27th. Their -44 run
differential is third worst in the American League. I could go on, but the
point is clear, the 2015 Red Sox are not a good team.
With the
trade deadline now a little more than a month away, what should the Red Sox do?
They have two options: stand pat and hope that their better play in June is an
indicator of things to come or follow the path laid out in 2014 and punt the
2015 season. If you think that the Red Sox should play for this season, Fangraphs’
projected standings have Boston going 47-40 over its remaining 87 games.
While this may seem optimistic, especially since the projections suggest that
87 wins will be enough to grab the AL East crown, the Red Sox would still
finish the season under .500, at 80-82. It is possible for the Red Sox to play above
.500 baseball for the rest of the year, especially if the team can maintain its
offensive improvements from June. First let’s take a look at three of the team’s
youngest hitters.
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May 2015
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June 2015
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AVG/OBP/SLG
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wRC+
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AVG/OBP/SLG
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wRC+
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Mookie Betts
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.259/.296/.422
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93
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.346/.391/.593
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170
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Xander Bogaerts
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.275/.309/.396
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91
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.323/.337/.452
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116
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Blake Swihart
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.225/.257/.268
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40
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.278/.328/.407
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102
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The BABIP gods are now shining down
on Betts, who hit a measley .257 in May, but sports a .362 BABIP in June. Now
let’s look at some of the veteran hitters—the ones who were supposed to anchor
the lineup.
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May 2015
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June 2015
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AVG/OBP/SLG
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wRC+
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AVG/OBP/SLG
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wRC+
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David Ortiz
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.214/.287/.337
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61
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.253/.341/.481
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123
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Mike Napoli
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.242/.361/.516
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140
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.203/.277/.351
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71
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Pablo Sandoval
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.200/.242/.311
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49
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.324/.333/.479
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121
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Hanley Ramirez
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.235/.286/.337
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68
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.338/.377/.479
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136
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So in playing
with these small offensive sample sizes, we can see that the Red Sox offense
improved in June. So far they’ve scored the 7th most runs in the
league, much closer in line with preseason expectations. Can they carry on this
improvement throughout the rest of the year? Maybe, but manipulate the data all
you want, it doesn’t change the fact that Boston is nine games below .500 with
almost half the season gone. No amount of improvement can wash away all the
losses that are already in the bank. If it will take 87 wins to capture the
division, then the Red Sox will need to go 54-33, a .620 winning percentage. And
they can’t rely solely on the offense to get them there.
Unfortunately
the Red Sox pitching has been atrocious. Take a look at the month by month
splits.
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ERA (League Rank)
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FIP (League Rank)
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ERA- (League Rank)
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FIP- (League Rank)
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April
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5.75 (30)
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3.85 (15)
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142 (30)
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100 (14)
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May
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4.56 (23)
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4.35 (22)
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113 (22)
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113 (23)
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June
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4.46 (22)
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3.44 (9)
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110 (18)
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89 (8)
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(ERA- & FIP- are
ERA and FIP scaled to league average, anything below 100 is good, above is bad,
an ERA- of 142 for example indicates that the pitching staff was 42% below
league average.)
The pitching staff has improved,
but mostly from downright awful to barely mediocre. The porous Red Sox defense
has also hurt their pitchers in terms of ERA—FIP, meanwhile, only focuses on the
things pitchers can control like strikeouts, walks, and homeruns, where Boston
ranks slightly better. Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval rank as the worst and
5th worst defenders in the league according to Defensive Runs Saved
(DRS). As a team, Boston ranks 19th in the league at -5 DRS. So not
only has the pitching staff not been good, the defense behind them isn’t
turning balls in play into outs.
So what’s the solution here? The
Red Sox should be sellers at the trade deadline and it’s time to start thinking
about next season. This means two things: trading players that might be
valuable to other contending teams and letting the rookies play. Let’s consider
who the Red Sox might consider trading.
The Franchise Players: Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Eduardo
Rodriguez,
None of
these players are available.
The Untradeables (players with long term contracts or
no-trade clauses): Dustin Pedroia, Ramirez, Ortiz, Sandoval, Napoli, Victorino,
Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, Allen Craig, Rusney Castillo
It may be nice to pretend that
Napoli or Victorino have some value, but Napoli is a 1B who can’t hit right now
and Victorino is a perennially injured right fielder making 13 million dollars.
So they’re out and so is anyone who is owed significant long term money.
Available (excluding fringe 40 man roster players like
Daniel Nava): Clay Buchholz, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley Jr., Junichi Tazawa,
Koji Uehera
Buccholz
has two more years on his contract that are both team options. He might be
enticing to a team in need of a mid-rotation starter. Injury concerns, however,
may scare team away. Holt is a super utility player who the Red Sox seem to
love, but he might be available for the right deal. Bradley Jr. could help a
defensively challenged team in center field. Tazawa and Uehera are the most
likely candidates as they might draw interest from teams in need of late inning
bullpen help. Unlike 2014, when Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Andrew Miller were
all potential free agents, the Red Sox don’t have any obvious trade targets
that might net a significant return.
If there’s
little chance of the Red Sox contending this season, then there’s little point
in continuing to play players like Victorino, Allen Craig, Alejandro De Aza (remember
when the Red Sox had too many outfielders? Wasn’t that fun?) or pitchers like Justin
Masterson or the recently demoted Joe Kelly. Boston has plenty of options sitting
on the bench in the majors or in AAA who may be part of the next contending Red
Sox team. What should Boston’s lineup look like for the rest of the season?
Glad you asked.
Lineup
CF Betts (L)
2B Holt (L)*
SS Bogaerts (R)
DH Ortiz (L)
1B Ramirez (R)
3B Sandoval (S)
RF Castillo (R)
LF Bradley (L)
C Swihart (S)
*Until Pedoria returns from the DL.
The biggest
changes include moving Napoli out of the lineup entirely and sliding Hanley
Ramirez to first base where he could do the least damage possible. Yes, it’s a
second position change for Ramirez, but his left field defense is untenable.
Allow Bradley and Castillo to play in the majors everyday and see what they can
do. Neither has anything left to prove in the minors and since the Red Sox aren’t
contending, what’s the downside? At least a Bradley-Betts-Castillo outfield
would be much better defensively.
Buchholz,
Porcello, Miley, and Rodriguez are locks for the rotation, either because of
performance or salary. In the fifth spot promote Brian Johnson from Pawtucket
and see what he can do. The Justin Masterson experiment was a nice idea in
trying to rehab a once good starter, but it didn’t work out—time to move on. Let’s
stop pretending that Joe Kelly is just one adjustment away from becoming a
viable starter, he’s not. His fastball-sinker combo would work much better in
the pen. Even knuckleballer Steven Wright would be a better choice at this
point than Masterson or Kelly.
Some of
these solutions may seem radical, but the worst has already happened for the
Red Sox, so what do they have left to lose?
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