The 2015 Red Sox So Far

            The 2015 Red Sox are not a good baseball team. In some areas they are perfectly mediocre and in others they have been downright awful. At this point, the Red Sox have played 32 out 162 games or nearly 20% of their season. So let’s look at where the Red Sox season has gone wrong so far. 

Win-Loss Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Win-Loss Record
15-17	140 (12th)	165 (2nd)	-25 (26th)	13-19

            Not good. Not good at all, especially for a team with playoff aspirations. In 2014, the Red Sox under general manager Ben Cherington aggressively sold off assets in order to restock the club for this season. So far that strategy has not paid off. Now let’s turn our attention to the offense, pitching, and defense and see where the Red Sox have played badly and where they might improve.

OFFENSE

	Batting Average	On-base Percentage	Slugging	wRC+	BABIP
Red Sox	.234 (25th)	.319 (15th)	.373 (24th)	92 (20th)	.259 (30th)
League	.251	.316	.395	96	.295

            The only area where the Red Sox rank above the league average is on-base percentage thanks to a combination of high walk rates and a low BABIP. Red Sox batters are walking in ten percent of their plate appearances, good for second in the league. Unfortunately the team’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP)  ranks dead last in the majors. BABIP is at least partially dependent on luck, suggesting that the Red Sox offense may improve due to more balls falling into play and away from the gloves of opposing fielders. Mookie Betts might be the best example of this bad BABIP luck. Currently Betts is hitting .248/.322/.442 good for a 109 wRC+ (9% above league average). But he only has a .252 BAPIP, well below his career average. Betts has walked at 9.5% rate and only struck out in 12.9% of his plate appearances. These underlying numbers suggest that Betts is unlucky rather than struggling in his adjustment to the majors. Dustin Pedroia, meanwhile, has rediscovered his power stroke after several years of battling wrist injuries. He sports an isolated power of .163, the last time Pedroia had an ISO in .160 range was 2012 when he hit fifteen homeruns.  

            Offensively the Red Sox have especially struggled in right field and at first base. Red Sox rightfielders, mostly Shane Victorino, Allen Craig, and Daniel Nava, have combined to produce .186/.288/.251, good for a 54 wRC+ (46% below league average production). Meanwhile Red Sox first basemen (primarily Mike Napoli) have a .163/.287/.298 line with 3 home runs. Their wRC+ of 66 is only 34% below league average. Because of the relative ease of playing first base and outfield, those positions require good hitters. If the Red Sox hope to improve their offense, they’ll need better production from these positions and soon.

PITCHING

	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP
Red Sox	4.91 (29th)	4.29 (22st)	7.65 (15th)	3.43 (25th)	.309 (25th)
League Average	3.95	3.95	7.61	3.04	.292

            The Red Sox pitching staff has struck out opposing hitters at about league rate, but they have one of the worst walk rates in the league. Shockingly the top two Sox starters, Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello have not been bad. Buchholz sports a horrifying 5.73 ERA, but that figure is misleading. His FIP is a much more respectable 3.09. FIP, in case you forgot, focuses on walks, strikeouts, and homeruns—things the pitcher can control. And in those areas Buchholz is excelling. He’s striking out 10.27 batters per nine innings. The reason for his high ERA? It’s our old friend BABIP again: .393. Porcello has a 4.50 ERA, but a FIP of 4.08. He’s strikeout rate of 7.77 is well above his career rate of 5.88. The most likely culprit for the ERA-FIP disparity? A spike in the number of home runs allowed: 12.5% of his flyballs have left the park.

            Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson, however, should be in danger of losing their spots in the rotation. Kelly has simply been unable to control his pitches. In his last start, Kelly walked seven hitters in five and two-thirds innings. Masterson’s command has similarly evaporated as he features a 4.91 BB/9. He has also seen his fastball velocity dip from 93.1 mph in 2013 to 87.8 in 2015. Without the ability to overpower hitters or develop movement in his fastball, Masterson’s starts have become more like batting practice for opposing lineups. Just wait for the 88 mph fastball and enjoy.  

DEFENSE 

            The Red Sox have excelled defensively in recent years, but have struggled this season.  From 2012-2014, the Red Sox were the third best defensive team in baseball according to UZR (ultimate zone rating). This season they rank 25^th with a UZR of -10 (meaning that the defense has cost the team 10 runs, equivalent to one win). According to Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put into play that the defense turns into outs) the Red Sox also rank 25^th, at 69.1%. So what’s changed? The up the middle defense has been fine, with Mookie Betts ranking as Boston’s best defender at 3.2 UZR. New additions Pablo Sandoval, -2.8 UZR, and Hanley Ramirez, -6.6 UZR, have struggled to adjust to Fenway. Ramirez’s UZR/150—a measure that averages defense out over 150 games—is a horrifying -53.4. At his current pace, Ramirez will have cost the Red Sox five wins because of his terrible defense. UZR is probably overstating Ramirez’s struggles—defense metrics are still quite finicky—but just watch him wander around in left and try not to get nostalgic for his Ramirez predecessor: Manny.  

Mike Napoli currently has a UZR of -2.5. If Napoli’s slide continues, the Red Sox might consider sliding Sandoval over to first, putting Hanley at third, and moving Jackie Bradley Jr. or Rusney Castillo to left field? Hanley has played 860.1 innings at third in his career in 2012. He had a UZR of -3.6,  a lot better than his current left field defense. With David Oritz occupying the designated hitter spot, such a radical defensive shift might be the only way to improve the lineup and the defense at the same time.

While the Red Sox season has been a disappointment, the development of Mookie Betts, the top of the rotation, and some luck offer hope for improvement. But if the back end of the rotation continues to struggle, the defense continues to decline, and the Red Sox don’t find some power in the lineup, it will be another long summer at Fenway.