Patriots-Colts Preview

SETTING THE CONTEXT

	Total DVOA	Weighted DVOA	Offensive DVOA	Defensive DVOA	Special Teams DVOA
New England	22.4% (4)	34.1% (2)	13.6% (6)	-3.4% (11)	5.5% (5)
Indianapolis	4.7% (12)	6.1% (13)	-0.9% (17)	-2.3% (13)	3.3% (8)

            Since 2012, the Patriots have won their last three games with the Colts by a combined 78 points. In each of those matchups, the Patriots were the better team. Whether you look at DVOA or weighted DVOA (which places more emphasis on recent games), that trend continues. New England holds the overall edge in offense, defense, and special teams. The Colts’ weaknesses on defense and special teams are small.  The biggest difference is the gulf between the two teams on offense. Now that we’ve outlined the broad strokes, let’s go deeper.

THE PATRIOTS ON OFFENSE

	Weighted DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
New England Offense	21.1% (3)	35.0% (5)	-3.6% (14)
Indianapolis Defense	-10.3% (7)	1.1% (10)	-6.6% (19)

            In Week 11, Patriots running back Jonas Gray ran for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Colts. In last year’s divisional playoff round, LeGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four touchdowns. Stevan Ridley contributed an additional 52 yards and 2 TDs. In those two games the Patriots ran for a combined 480 yards on 90 carries, good for 5.33 yards per carry. There are two personnel changes, one for each team, that might prevent a repeat of these performances on Sunday. First since Week 11, Arthur Jones, a defensive end, has returned to the Colts to help bolster their run defense. Jones provides another lineman for the Colts to potentially clog up running lanes. Second, Patriots center Bryan Stork will sit this week following an injury in last week’s Ravens game. Stork played a key role in the rejuvenated Patriots offense line this season. The loss of Stork led the Patriots to deploy only four offensive linemen during one drive rather than play Stork’s replacement, Josh Kline.

            While these two personnel changes may hurt the Patriots running game, they still have enough offensive weapons to exploit the Colts. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is an effective blocker and pass catcher, making him a match-up nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. On one play he can serve as an additional blocker on running plays and on the next  run up the seam and overwhelm opposing defensive backs. If the Patriots start the game running the ball successfully, the Colts will have to bring in additional defensive linemen and linebackers to stop the run. By putting so many men at the line, the Patriots will be able to take advantage of mismatches in the secondary, like Gronkowski on safety LaRon Landry. If the Colts shift their best corner Vontae Davis to cover Gronk, then that will leave Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Danny Amendola on weaker corners and safeties. And if the Colts blitz, Brady will dump off to Edelman or Shane Vereen out of the backfield. No matter how you divvy it up, the Patriots offense will create mismatches and ruthlessly exploit them.

THE COLTS ON OFFENSE

	Weighted DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
Indianapolis Offense	-5.0% (19)	15.6% (13)	-15.9% (27)
New England Defense	-7.4% (12)	2.0% (12)	-10.4% (14)

            Despite the presence of Andrew Luck, the Colts offense this season ranked below league average. This was mostly due to their horrendously bad running game. The flaws in their running game stemmed from two interrelated decisions. First, that last season Colts GM Ryan Grigson traded a first round pick to the Browns for running back Trent Richardson. The second is why the Colts coaching staff kept handing him the ball in key games. In 15 games this season, Richardson ran 159 times for 519 yards for a pathetic 3.3 yards per carry (perfectly in line with his career average). Only in recent weeks have the Colts woken up to the idea that Richardson is terrible and benched him. While Daniel Herron has replaced Richardson as the starter, he has hardly blown the roof off the doors (H/T Matthew Berry). In last week’s game against the Colts he ran 23 times for 63 yards averaging 2.7 yards per carry. While the Colts will try to establish their running game, it doesn’t seem to have much hope of succeeding.

            The Colts, however, are much better in the passing game. Patriots cornerback Darrell Revis will most likely limit wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will use a combination of Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, and Devin McCourty to blanket Colts receivers Donte Moncrief, Hakim Nicks, and Reggie Wayne. The one area they might be able to exploit the Patriots pass defense is with tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. The Patriots rank 30^th in DVOA against tight ends. Additionally, the Colts offensive line should be able to give Luck plenty of time to complete his passes. The Patriots have not generated much of a pass rush this season, ranking 19^th in adjusted sack rate. Last week, the Ravens managed to keep the Patriots best pass rusher Chandler Jones quiet. If the Colts can give Luck time, he could pick his spots and find open receivers. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

	Weighted DVOA	FG/XP	KICK	KICK RET	PUNT	PUNT RET
New England	5.6% (7)	10.8 (1)	8.4 (3)	0.5 (13)	-0.6 (18)	8.4 (5)
Indianapolis	0.8% (15)	8.4 (4)	4.9 (9)	0.4 (14)	11.2 (6)	-8.5 (31)

            The Patriots hold the advantage in most areas of special teams play except for punting. Colts punter Pat McAfee is perhaps the best punter in the league. He handles the punting and kick-off responsibilities. This could play a key role in the game in deciding field position. The current weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 40s and rain. Slippery conditions could increase the likelihood of turnovers. A fumbled snap on a punt or on a kick return could flip field position and scoring opportunities.

THE PICK

            The Patriots are the better team. And unlike the Ravens, the Colts’ strengths do not create matchup problems for the Patriots. They have no running game and their wide receivers go up against the strength of the Patriots defense: the secondary. Whether running or passing the ball, the Patriots should be able to exploit the Colts defense. Patriots 35, Colts 27.