Fantasy Football: Over and Underachievers

            A few weeks ago I looked at scoring leaders through week 3, this week I’m going to look at one player at each position who have either dramatically over or underperformed relative to his draft value.

Quarterbacks

Phillip Rivers

            In 2013, Rivers threw for 4,478 yards with 32 touchdowns and only 11 picks. He scored 276 fantasy points, finishing 6^th among quarterbacks and 7^th overall. That performance did not win Rivers much respect from fantasy owners. He was an 11^th round pick and the 14^th quarterback off the board sandwiched between Johnny Manziel and Eli Manning. This year, under coach Mike McCoy, Rivers has continued his stellar play. He currently sports a 68.3% completion percentage, with 2,213 yards and 20 touchdown passes against only 5 interceptions. His 160 fantasy points place him fourth among quarterbacks. If you loaded up on wide receivers and running backs early and grabbed Rivers late, it’s paying off big time.

Cam Newton

            There are several viable candidates for this spot. I considered Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, and finally settled on Newton. Last year, Newton finished third among quarterbacks with 282 fantasy points. He passed for 3,379 yards and 24 touchdown passes. Newton’s rushing set him apart as he ran for 585 yards and six rushing touchdowns. He averaged 17.625 points per game. This year, as the Panthers have crumbled, so have Newton’s fantasy numbers. Newton was a fifth round pick and is currently stuck between fellow mid-round QB disappointments Nick Foles and Andy Dalton as the 18^th highest scoring QB. He has 214 yards on the ground with only one rushing TD. His average points per game has declined to a barely playable13.25.

Running Backs

Ahmad Bradshaw

            While the Colts continue to hand Trent Richardson the ball, Bradshaw has proven to be the better NFL and fantasy running back. He has scored 101 fantasy points behind 635 all purpose yards and 8 touchdowns. He’s rushed 76 times for an average of 4.88 yards per carry. He’s also caught 31 passes for an average of 15.53 yards per catch. Currently fifth among running backs in fantasy points, Bradshaw was on average a 14^th round pick and the 50^th running back taken overall. Under Andrew Luck, the Colts have been one of the most prolific offenses in the league, creating scoring opportunities for players like Bradshaw. His touchdown pace is unlikely to continue, but enjoy the ride while it lasts.

LeSean McCoy

            Let’s play a game of blind resumes.

	Carries	Yards	TDs	Fantasy Points
McCoy	137	505	1	58
Player B	101	358	2	58
Player C	74	251	3	58

Players B and C are the aforementioned disappointment Trent Richardson and Vikings backup Matt Asiata. McCoy was a top five pick, while Asiata went undrafted. The lack of touchdowns has killed McCoy’s value this season. In ESPN standard scoring McCoy has 4 games of single digit fantasy points. He has rushed for over one hundred yards once, against the Giants in week six. He’s still getting about twenty rushes per game, but his inability to find the endzone has caused a lot of consternation for his owners. McCoy is a reminder that you can’t win your league with the right first round pick, but you can lose it with the wrong one.

Wide Receivers

T.Y. Hilton

            Hilton has emerged this season as Andrew Luck’s favorite wide receiver target. He has scored 96 fantasy points, good for 5^th among wide receivers. He leads the NFL in receiving yards with 886. The sheer volume of his receptions, tied for 3^rd, make up for his only two touchdowns. Not bad for an eighth round pick and the 26^th wide receiver off the board. Hilton has been especially dangerous the last five weeks. He started out slow, with 4, 6, and 8 fantasy points in Weeks 1-3. Since Week 4, however, Hilton has 10, 9, 28, 10, and 21 points. If Hilton can pick up the touchdown pace he might finish in the top 3.

Brandon Marshall

            It worked so well last time, let’s do another batch of blind resumes.

	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	Fantasy Points
Player A	24	470	3	62
Marshall	34	385	5	62

Player A is San Diego wideout Malcom Floyd. On average, Floyd went undrafted in an ESPN standard 10 team league. Marshall was the fifth wide receiver off the board in the 3^rd round. He’s currently tied with Floyd for 22^nd in wide receiver scoring. Marshall has surpassed one hundred yards once this year, in week six against Atlanta’s anemic defense. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4 against Green Bay. His only standout performance was in week 2 against San Francisco when he caught three touchdown passes. If you remove that game Marshall is averaging 5.71 fantasy points per game. Forget starting him, that’s not even worth owning in a standard fantasy league.

Bonus: Seattle Defense

            Every year in fantasy leagues, people draft defenses way too high. They don’t recognize (or they don’t care) that the difference between the 1^st and 10^th ranked defenses is extraordinarily small.  Nor are teams consistent from year to year. This year was no different. After last year’s historic performance, ESPN drafters fell in love with the Seattle defense. They were drafted on average at the top of the 5^th round, right between Matthew Stafford and running back Frank Gore. This year, the Seahawks D has scored 38 fantasy points, tied for 17^th. The top three defenses, the Dolphins, Lions, and Bills were 16^th, 17^th, and 15^th defenses drafted on average. Rather than waste a middle round pick on a defense, take somebody like Ahmad Bradshaw or T.Y. Hilton.