AFC 2014 Preview

This is the second of two posts predicting the win-loss records of NFL teams this season. This post will deal with the AFC. The previous one, here, dealt with the NFC. All of the statistics cited below are from Football Outsiders. DVOA is explained here.  

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots: 12-4

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	12-4	10.5	18.9% (5)	24.4% (5)	16.4% (4)	4.2% (20)	6.7% (2)

Over the past few seasons, the Patriots have whiffed on drafting defensive backs— where have you gone Ras-I Dowling? This season they will start Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner alongside All-Pro safety Devin McCourty. With a healthy Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo, suddenly the Pats defense isn’t quite so porous. With or without tight end Rob Gronkowski, Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady will keep the offense humming. An improved defense and a top 5 offense? This might be the best Pats team of the last decade.

2. Miami Dolphins: 8-8

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	8-8	7.5	-6.5% (22)	-4.7% (19)	-1.8% (18)	2.4% (17)	-2.4% (23)

How do I feel about the Dolphins? Eh… they’re ok. They’ve been that way for years. Since 2009, they’ve won 7, 7, 6, 7, and 8 games. Ryan Tannehill is a decent young quarterback surrounded who has some offense weapons like WRs Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline and RBs Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller. Head coach Joe Philbin hasn’t exactly distinguished himself as a game planner or locker room presence (see the Jonathan Martin bullying scandal). 8-8 feels right for this team.

3. New York Jets: 6-10

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	8-8	5.4	-7.7% (24)	-9% (23)	-15.3% (27)	-5.6% (12)	2.1% (10)

The Jets somehow wound up at 8-8 last year, despite a -97 point differential. That kind of luck is unsustainable. This season, the Jets failed to replace any of the losses in their secondary. Rex Ryan may be able to coach up a defense, but he can’t build an offense to save his life. This offseason Ryan talked about using Michael Vick in wildcat packages. The Wildcat worked for one game, four years ago because no one had practiced against it. Ryan may be looking for a new job before long.

4. Buffalo Bills: 4-12

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	6-10	6.7	-3.3% (18)	-4.3% (17)	-11.5% (25)	-13.8% (4)	-5.6% (30)

In the 2014 draft, the Bills traded away their 2015 first round pick to move up five spots to grab WR Sammy Watkins. That move exemplified years of Bills futility. The Bills were not a star wide receiver away from a playoff berth and Super Bowl contention. The Bills have question marks all over the field, including second year QB EJ Manuel and RB CJ Spiller. The Bills lost their defensive coordinator, Mike Pettine, to the Browns. Star linebacker Kiko Alonso is out for the season and their best safety, Jarius Byrd, now plays for the Saints. Bills fans are going to be cursing management again, next year, when they hand a top 5 draft pick to Cleveland.

AFC NORTH

1. Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	11-5	11.1	14.2% (9)	17.7% (8)	0.4% (17)	-12.6% (5)	1.2% (12)

The Bengals will go as far as Andy Dalton takes them. On one hand, with Dalton at quarterback, the Bengals have won 9, 10, and 11 games in his first three seasons in the league. They have also lost in the first round of the playoffs each of those years. In each of those games, Dalton delivered atrocious performances. When pressured, Dalton’s QB mechanics completely fall apart. The Bengals have some top flight talent, but that can only go so far without a top flight QB.

2. Baltimore Ravens: 8-8

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	8-8	7.1	-6.7% (23)	-4.3% (18)	-21.7% (30)	-8.7% (7)	6.3% (3)

Joe Flacco’s extraordinary performance during the 2012 playoffs resulted in a Super Bowl victory. That run, highlighted by 11 TDs and no INTs, was the best performance of his career. Despite the pronouncements of NFL TV commentators who love to talk about quarterbacks “making the leap,” Flacco unsurprisingly regressed in 2013. So did the rest of the offense under offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell. New coordinator Gary Kubiak should improve the offense to something closer to respectability.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	8-8	8.2	0.9% (15)	6.8% (13)	4.4% (12)	4% (19)	0.5% (16)

The Steelers are in one of the worst places an NFL team can be: stuck in the middle. Their defense is aging and relying on past their prime veterans like Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. WR Antonio Brown is a great young player, but their weak offensive line will once again cause problems for QB Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger is entering a contract year and at age 32. The Steelers need to decide if they can compete for a Super Bowl with Roethlisberger and the current supporting cast or start over with a new QB.

4. Cleveland Browns: 5-11

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	4-12	5.5	-21.8% (28)	-25.2% (29)	-14.4% (26)	8.2% (24)	0.9% (14)

New head coach Mike Pettine made dramatic improvements to the Bills defense in his one season as their defensive coordinator. New GM Ray Farmer manipulated the draft brilliantly, trading down with the Bills, to pick up another 1^st round pick next year. The Browns offense is a work in progress behind QB Brian Hoyer, RB Ben Tate, and WRs Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins. This is a team built more for next year than this season. Maybe Browns ownership will give Farmer and Pettine more than a season.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans: 10-6

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	2-14	4.2	-26.5% (30)	-32.2% (31)	-18.9% (29)	2.5% (18)	-5.1% (29)

QB Matt Schaub set an NFL record for interceptions returned for touchdowns last season. The Texans around Schaub fell apart as well. With a new coaching staff and number one overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, this team has  too much talent to repeat their 2-14 record. Clowney and J.J. Watt will terrorize quarterbacks and overwhelm opposing offensive lines. New head coach Bill O’Brien is an unknown quantity, but should be an improvement over Gary Kubiak last year.

2. Indianapolis Colts: 9-7

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	11-5	9.4	3.2% (13)	-6.2% (21)	4.3% (19)	0.9% (16)	-0.1% (18)

The Colts have been the same team for a long time now. They’re dependent on otherworldly quarterback play to make up for their deficiencies elsewhere. The Colts traded their 2013 1^st round pick for Trent Richardson, who somehow proceeded to play worse in Indianapolis than he had in Cleveland. Andrew Luck is a great quarterback who takes a lot of hits behind an inferior offensive line. They lack depth on both sides of the ball, yet Luck keeps them in every game.

3. Tennessee Titans: 6-10

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	7-9	7.5	-6.1% (21)	-3.3% (16)	1.4% (16)	4.2% (22)	-3.2% (26)

The Titans are the AFC equivalent of Tampa Bay. Every year the national media talks them up as a sleeper team, yet they wind up somewhere between 6-10 and 9-7. Jake Locker is a talented young quarterback who can’t stay healthy. New coach Ken Whisenhunt had success in Arizona, but cycling through athletic, but inaccurate passers led to his downfall. Shonn Greene is currently the starting running back. They have good wide receivers in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter. The defense isn’t anything better than average.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	4-12	3.1	-38.2% (32)	-22.5% (28)	-29.8% (32)	10.9% (28)	2.5% (9)

Of all the worst teams in the league, Jacksonville has a plan. Last year, they hired Gus Bradley, the defensive coordinator of the Seahawks, as their head coach. They spent a high draft pick on a quarterback, Blake Bortles, and a wide receiver, Marquis Lee. They signed some veteran help for their defensive line. They won’t be a good team this year, but they should start getting better.

AFC WEST

1. Denver Broncos: 12-4

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	13-3	11.7	32.7% (2)	27% (2)	33.5% (1)	-0.2% (15)	-1% (21)

The Seahawks embarrassed the Broncos in the Super Bowl. Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense shredded the Broncos’ defense. So this offseason, the Broncos bolstered their defense, adding Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware, and T.J. Ward. Until Peyton Manning actually declines, there’s no reason to doubt his ability to lead the Broncos to a top 5 offense. The Broncos are well set up for another deep playoff run.

2. San Diego Chargers: 9-7

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	9-7	9.2	6.4% (12)	13.7% (12)	23.1% (2)	17.5% (32)	0.8% (15)

Head coach Mike McCoy and coordinator Ken Whisenhunt revitalized Phillip Rivers’ career last year. Rivers, rookie WR Keenan Allen, and RBs Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead headlined an explosive offense. Their defense, however, was atrocious. The Chargers added defensive back Brandon Flowers to help with pass defense. If the defense can improve, the Chargers should compete for a wild card spot. If not, they’ll wind up just missing the playoffs.

3. Kansas City Chiefs : 7-9

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	11-5	11.1	17.5% (6)	17.7% (9)	3% (15)	-6.7% (9)	7.8% (1)

The Chiefs improved from 2-14 in 2012 to 11-5 in 2013. The plexiglass principle states that when teams make such a dramatic improvement, they tend to take a step back the next season. Kansas City lost players on the defensive and offensive lines without replacing them. They also released their best cornerback, Brandon Flowers. Alex Smith is a capable quarterback and Jamal Charles is a fantastic running back, but that won’t be enough to return them to the playoffs.

4. Oakland Raiders: 4-12

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	4-12	4.9	-34.1% (31)	-36.8% (32)	-16.7% (28)	10.3% (26)	-7.1% (31)

Rookie Derek Carr is going to start at quarterback ahead of Matt Schaub, so that’s something. This team was terrible last year in all parts of the game. Maybe Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden can combine to jumpstart the running game. Maybe Carr will be good right away. Maybe coach Dennis Allen can improve the defense. Maybe all the middling veterans like WR James Jones will pay off…or not. In the offseason, the Raiders handed out big money to veteran players just to meet the minimum salary floor. Look for another season at the bottom of the AFC and another top 5 pick.