World Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox

STARTERS (All stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

Adam Wainwright — 241.2 IP, 8.16 K/9, 2.55 FIP

Michael Wacha — 64.2 IP, 9.05 K/9, 3.51 FIP

Joe Kelly — 124 IP, 5.73 K/9, 4.01 FIP

Lance Lynn — 201.2 IP, 8.84 K/9, 3.28 FIP

Red Sox

Jon Lester — 213.1 IP, 7.47 K/9, 3.59 FIP

John Lackey — 189.1 IP, 7.65 K/9, 3.86 FIP

Clay Buchholz — 108.1 IP, 7.98 K/9, 2.78 FIP

Jake Peavy — 144.2 IP, 7.53 K/9, 3.14 FIP

The starting rotations provide the starkest contrast of all the categories under analysis. The Cardinals rotation features the best starter in the series, a dominant rookie starter, and two question marks. This season Adam Wainwright produced 6.4 WAR and a 2.55 FIP, good for fourth in the majors. Michael Wacha has pitched brilliantly in the playoffs, with 22 strikeouts in 21 innings. He has only allowed one run and walked just four batters. Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn each have high walk rates and do not match up well against the patient Red Sox lineup. Kelly averaged 3.19 BB/9 and Lynn 3.35 BB/9 and the patient Red Sox hitters should be able to drive up their pitch counts and capitalize on their mistakes.

The Red Sox meanwhile have a stable of consistent starters who pitch deep into games. Since 2008, Jon Lester has averaged 4.6 WAR per season and never pitched fewer than 193.2 innings. John Lackey has driven his walk rate down to 1.9 BB/9 and induced groundballs from 46.8% of opposing hitters. Lackey has kept runners off the basepaths and the ball in the park. Buchholz has struggled to pitch past the 5^th inning since his return from injury. He will start Game 3 in St. Louis and Sox manager John Farrell will lift him for a pinch hitter by the 6^th inning, mitigating his stamina issues. Since coming over from the White Sox, Peavy has been a stable presence at the back of the rotation. He pitched well against Tampa Bay and poorly against Detroit.

Slight Advantage: Cardinals

BULLPENS (All stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

Closer: RHP Trevor Rosenthal — 12.9 K/9, 1.91 FIP

RHP Carlos Martinez — 7.62 K/9, 3.08 FIP

RHP Seth Maness — 5.08 K/9, 3.43 FIP

LHP Kevin Siegrist — 11.34 K/9, 2.29 FIP

LHP Randy Choate  — 7.13 K/9, 2.57 FIP

RHP Shelby Miller — 8.78 K/9, 3.67 FIP

RHP John Axford — 9 K/9, 4.34 FIP

RHP Edward Mujica — 6.4 K/9, 3.71 FIP

Red Sox

Closer: RHP Koji Uehara — 12.23 K/9, 1.61 FIP

RHP Junichi Tazawa — 9.48 K/9, 3.22 FIP

LHP Craig Breslow — 4.98 K/9, 3.60 FIP

RHP Brandon Workman — 10.15 K/9, 3.43 FIP

LHP Franklin Morales — 7.46 K/9, 4.55 FIP

RHP Ryan Dempster — 8.25 K/9, 4.68 FIP

LHP Felix Doubront — 7.71 K/9, 3.78 FIP

Uehara efficiently mowed down Detroit’s lineup in the ALCS. He pitched in multiple innings and consistently throws strikes. He is the best reliever in the series and look for Farrell to aggressively deploy him in the 8^th inning if necessary. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, the Cardinals trio of Rosenthal, Martinez, and Siegrist represent the next three best relievers. Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has employed these three to shut down the Pirates and Dodgers lineups. The strength of the Cardinals starting pitching so far has reduced Matheny’s need to go deep into his pen. Rookie starter Shelby Miller could be called upon if the Red Sox knock out one of the starters early. Get ready for a lot of Randy Choate vs. David Ortiz matchups in the late innings. Red Sox manager John Farrell has largely relied on Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow in high leverage situations. Brandon Workman (with significant help from the belly flopping Prince Fielder) cleaned up the ineffective Franklin Morales’s mess in Game 6.

Advantage: Cardinals

STARTING LINEUPS (All stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

1. 2B Matt Carpenter (L) — .318/.392/.481

2. RF Carlos Beltran (S) — .296/.339/.491

3. LF Matt Holliday (R) — .300/.389/.490

4. 1B Matt Adams (L) — .284/.335/.503

5. DH Allen Craig (R) — .315/.373/.457

6. C Yadier Molina (R) — .319/.359/.477

7. 3B David Freese (R) — .262/.340/.381

8. CF Jon Jay (L) — .276/.351/.370

9. SS Pete Kozma (R) — .217/.275/.273

Red Sox

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L) — .298/.355/.426

2. RF Shane Victorino (R) — .294/.351/.451

3. 2B Dustin Pedroia (R) — .301/.372/.415 

4. DH David Ortiz (L) — .309/.395/.564 

5. 1B Mike Napoli (R) — .259/.360/.482 

6. LF Jonny Gomes (R) — .247/.344/.426  

7. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) — .273/.338/.466

8. SS Stephen Drew (L) — .253/.333/.443, 109

9. 3B Xander Bogaerts (R) — .250/.320/.364

The Red Sox produced a league leading 853 runs and fashioned a .277/.349/.446 batting line as a team. The Cardinals ranked third in the league with 783 runs and a team batting line of .269/.332/.401. The Red Sox feature a deeper lineup with more power. The Red Sox outhomered the Cardinals 178 to 125. The Red Sox led the league in doubles with 363 and the Cardinals ranked second with 325. The Red Sox lack the Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso-sized hole at the bottom of their lineup. The return of Allen Craig will be important for the Cardinals. While Craig may be limited to DH and pinch hitting duties in series, if he can hit like he has throughout the regular season, the gap between the lineups will shrink a bit. If Craig is ineffective and the Cardinals have two holes (and three for Games 3-5) in their lineup, then the Red Sox will maintain the clear advantage.

Advantage: Red Sox

BENCHES (All stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

C Tony Cruz (R)— .203/.240/.293

IF Kolten Wong (L)— .153/.194/.169

IF Daniel Descalso (L)— .238/.290/.366

OF Shane Robinson (R)— .250/.345/.319

Red Sox

C David Ross(R) — .216/.298/.382

1B/OF Mike Carp (L)— .296/.362/.523

3B Will Middlebrooks (R) — .227/.271/.425

OF Daniel Nava (S) — .303/.385/.445

OF Quintin Berry (L) — .625/.667/1.000

            The Red Sox have a significant advantage on the bench. Carp and Nava (assuming Farrell sticks with Gomes as his starter) provide positional flexibility and power off the bench. Farrell can be aggressive with his pinch hitting and pitching changes when the series shifts to St. Louis. The Red Sox also are only carrying 11 pitchers in the shortened series, giving them another bench spot for a specialist like Berry. The Cardinals bench features a group of slap hitting, no walk hitters who don’t offer Mike Matheny any significant pinch hitting options.

Advantage: Red Sox

DEFENSE (Defensive efficiency from http://www.baseball-reference.com/ other stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

Defensive Efficiency: .691 (NL League Average .694)

Defensive Runs Saved: -39

Ultimate Zone Rating: -49.4

Red Sox

Defensive Efficiency: .694 (AL League Average .690)

Defensive Runs Saved: 9

Ultimate Zone Rating: 21.6

            While defensive metrics vary wildly from year to year and from stat to stat, the trend that emerges here is clear. The Red Sox carry a slightly above average defense, while the Cardinals have a well-below average difference. Considering the amount of pressure the Red Sox put on opposing teams with their aggressive base running defense could play an important, if unheralded, role in this series.

Advantage: Red Sox

MANAGERS

Mike Matheny, in his second year, has made improvements to his managing. The Cardinals high scoring offense tempered Matheny’s fascination with the sacrifice bunting with his position players (33 last year to 17). This post season the Cardinals starters have gone deep into most games, giving Matheny the opportunity to rely on his top relievers and minimizing the risk of coughing up the lead. It will be interesting to see how Matheny reacts if one of his starters struggles early and he has to rely on the back end of the bullpen.

John Farrell has pressured opposing teams with smart base running, exploiting platoon advantages, and aggressive defensive positioning. The Red Sox stole 123 bases in 142 opportunities, posting a 86.6% success rate. He platooned Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes in left field until this series. He pinch hits with Mike Carp and Gomes in order to gain the platoon edge. He employs a variety of defensive shifts against pull hitters with marked tendencies. Farrell’s performance in Game 6 was a mixed bag, but ultimately the Red Sox pulled out the win. He played Xander Bogaerts over Will Middlebrooks to the team’s benefit.  Starting Gomes over Nava (the better player) throughout the series finally paid off. Shane Victorino’s grand slam in the bottom of the 7^th mitigated the disaster of his bunt in the bottom of the 3rd. A simple glance at a run expectancy chart should be enough to demonstrate the stupidity of a bunt that early in the game. His insistence on using Franklin Morales in Game 6 represented a terrible tactical decision. Morales demonstrated his persistent control issues by walking Prince Fielder and allowing a go ahead single to Victor Martinez. Craig Breslow, who has been effective, would have been a better choice there.

Advantage: Red Sox

Prediction

            The Red Sox and Cardinals split the first two in Boston. After the series shifts to St. Louis, the Red Sox lineup and bench advantages assert themselves and the Red Sox win two of three. They return home to Boston and clinch the series with John Lackey (afterwards basking in all the beer and fried chicken in Boston) on the mound in Game Six.

Red Sox in 6.