He's Back: Stephen Drew in 2014

            On Tuesday, the Boston Red Sox resigned shortstop Stephen Drew to a one year contract worth approximately ten million dollars. In the offseason, Drew rejected a qualifying offer from Boston that would have guaranteed him approximately fourteen million dollars. By not signing the qualifying offer, Drew would have cost any team that signed him (apart from Boston) a high draft pick. The draft pick compensation, as it has for other free agents in recent years, caused Drew’s market to dry up.

            Now that Drew has returned to the fold, what can the Red Sox expect from him for this season and what would be the best way to use him? Drew played in 124 games with 501 plate appearances last season. Below are his statistics (courtesy of Fangraphs) from 2013.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+	WAR
2013	.253	.333	.443	10.8	24.8	109	3.4

            Back in December, I argued that Drew represented an above average option at shortstop in 2013. Here’s a link to that piece—go read it. Back? Okay, good. Now we can look at what Drew can offer to the Red Sox in 2014.

First question, will he be an improvement at the production the Red Sox have gotten out from new shortstop Xander Bogaerts this year?

2014	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+	WAR
Bogaerts	.269	.369	.379	11.3%	22.6%	111	0.9

            Answer: not really. Xander Bogaerts has ably replaced Drew’s production. Drew possesses a bit more power, but Bogaerts is 21 years old and in his first full season in the majors. The power will come. Drew’s obviously not replacing Dustin Pedroia at second base, but what about the chronically injured Will Middlebrooks (currently on the DL) at third?  

2014	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+	WAR
Middlebrooks	.197	.305	.324	8.0%	28.0%	74	0.0

            Here’s an area where the Red Sox could use an upgrade—desperately. This year, Middlebrooks has had difficulty putting the ball in play, sporting a .261 BABIP, 30 points below his career average. His walk rate is up, but so is his sky-high strikeout rate. Offensively, he measures about 26% below league average. His short-term replacement, Brock Holt, is the definition of a no-hit utility man.

            Middlebrooks’s struggles are nothing new. Third base was where the Red Sox offense went to die last year. Will Middlebrooks, Jose Iglesias, Brandon Snyder, Brock Holt, Pedro Ciriaco, and Xander Bogaerts combined to offer zero wins above replacement—the equivalent of fielding a replaceable minor league veteran.

3B	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
2013	.250 (15th)	.300 (20th)	.392 (16th)	85 (20th)	0.0 (23rd)
2014	.196 (26th)	.301 (20th)	.266 (30th)	59 (27th)	-0.9 (28th)

            Horrified by that chart? Good.

The question remains where can Drew be most effective this season? A look at Drew’s career stats suggests that he should play regularly against right-handed pitchers, but not against lefties. Just look at his career splits.

Drew	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+
Vs. LHP	.235	.291	.390	7.5%	24.4%	74
Vs. RHP	.275	.343	.451	9.4%	16.4%	105

           

            What about Middlebrooks? In his short career, Middlebrooks has demonstrated one positive skill: hitting lefthanded pitchers.

Middlebrooks	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+
Vs. LHP	.288	.342	.491	7.0%	22.6%	123
Vs. RHP	.228	.273	.427	4.6%	27.3%	86

            But what about Bogaerts? Leave him alone and let him play every day. The most optimal lineup would feature Drew and Bogaerts against right-handers and Bogaerts and Middlebrooks should start against lefties. Will this solve all the Red Sox offensive problems? No, but the improvement from Middlebrooks playing every day to just against lefties should be worth about one or two wins over the season. With a seven game losing streak, the Red Sox can use every win they can get. 

The Curious Case of John Lackey

            On December 16, 2009, the Boston Red Sox signed pitcher John Lackey to a five year, 82.5 million dollar contract. The deal included a 3.5 million dollar salary bonus, an 18 million dollar salary in 2010, and 15.25 million from 2011-2014. The contract also included a vesting option at the league minimum salary (about five hundred thousand dollars) for 2015 if Lackey missed significant time because of a pre-existing elbow injury. Lackey missed the 2012 season following Tommy John surgery on that elbow.

            After the “Fried Chicken and Beer” fiasco of 2011 and Lackey’s subsequent surgery, his contract seemed like a total bust. It was another example why giving five year contracts to older pitchers rarely work out. Yet when Lackey returned to the Red Sox in 2013, he pitched effectively. His season culminated with a 6 2/3 inning pitching performance in Game 6 of the World Series. A closer look at Lackey’s pitching performance since Tommy John surgery suggests that the deal might not be a total bust after all. (All Stats courtesy of Fangraphs)

	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
2010	215	6.53	3.01	4.40	3.85	3.9
2011	160	6.08	3.15	6.41	4.71	1.6
2013	189.1	7.65	1.90	3.52	3.86	3.2
2014	53	8.88	1.87	3.57	3.22	1.3
Career Avg	-	7.13	2.63	4.04	3.88	39.0

           

In 2013 and 2014, Lackey has dramatically improved his K/9 rate. He has transformed himself from an average strikeout pitcher to a great one. His walk rate declined from over 3 batters per nine innings to well under two. His FIP (for an explanation see here) has similarly climbed from average to something slighter better than that.

            What accounts for Lackey’s improvement? In 2013, he arrived at Red Sox camp in much better shape than in previous years. While losing weight certainly helped, it cannot account for such a striking transformation. In doing some research, I looked at Lackey’s pitch usage over his time on the Red Sox and noticed some pretty big changes.

	Four Seam Fastball %	Two Seam Fastball %	Cut-Fastball %	Slider %	Curve %	Changeup %
2010	15.2	4.8	41.9	9.2	24.1	4.6
2011	15.1	2.4	34.7	22.1	17.7	7.8
2013	52.0	4.9	29.3	0.9	10.4	2.6
2014	59.0	8.1	20.9		9.7	0.7

           

            In 2010 and 2011, Lackey threw his four seam fastball only about 15% of the time. Instead he relied on his cutter, curveball, and a slider (a pitch he no longer throws according to PitchF/x data).  Since 2013, Lackey has leaned heavily on his four seamer. He has cut back on his cut fastball and curveball and incorporated his two-seam fastball more into his repertoire.

            Since Lackey has relied on his four seamer more, what has that done for the effectiveness of his other pitches?

	Hitters  AVG/OBP/SLG against Two Seam Fastball	Hitters  AVG/OBP/SLG against Cut Fastball	Hitters  AVG/OBP/SLG against Curveball
2010	.371/.463/.543	.258/.323/.395	.266/.335/.410
2011	.350/.409/.500	.312/.397/.523	.336/.400/.462
2013	.205/.220/.308	.226/.280/.359	.233/.243/.438
2014	.100/.250/.200	.204/.250/.347	.353/.389/.412

            In 2011, major league hitters smacked Lackey around like a rag doll. Against Lackey, major league hitters were the equivalent of Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday (career .310/.386/.527 with a career wRC+ of 139—39% better than the average hitter). In 2013 and 2014, they’ve hit more like a 2013 version of Yuniesky Betancourt (.212/.240/.355 and a 56 wRC+).

            How has Lackey made such improvements so late in his career? Compare Lackey’s average pitch location on his cut fastball between 2011 and  2013. (Pitch location courtesy of http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/)

2011

 

2013

            Looking at location charts for Lackey’s other pitches reveal a similar pattern. In 2011, Lackey left his pitches over the heart of the plate and hitters crushed them. In 2013, Lackey kept his pitches on the outer edges of the strike zone. As a result of his better location, Lackey has improved his strikeout rate, getting more hitters to swing and miss at strikes: 9.8% in 2013 and 10.8% in 2014 (well above his career rate of 8.7%).

            If Lackey can continue his improved pitch location, his contract may not have been a bargain, but it won’t have been a total bust either. 

Dallas Buyers Club

            Dallas Buyers Club tells the story of Ron Woodruff (Matthew McConaughy), an electrician, bull rider, and hustler who, after being diagnosed with AIDS, violates an FDA ban on importing drugs from Mexico. While Dallas Buyers Club deserves credit for tackling such a recent and deeply troubling subject matter—the1980s AIDS crisis and its corresponding homophobia and bigotry—it fails to rise to the challenge presented by the subject matter. There is a great movie somewhere in Dallas Buyers Club, but ultimately the film relies too much on Hollywood cliché to become something meaningful.

            The movie’s strength lie in the performances of McConaughy as Woodruff and Jared Leto as Rayon, a transsexual AIDS patient and later Woodruff’s business partner. Both underwent startling physical transformations to play their roles (Step 1 towards winning an Oscar). McConaughy channels all of his charm and confidence into his performance as Woodruff. He ably plays Woodruff’s cockiness and charisma in battling the FDA, the reluctant Dallas gay community, and winning over the affections of a hospital doctor, Eve (Jennifer Garner). His performance, however, troublingly transforms Woodruff’s own homophobia and bigotry into a side note—something that needs overcoming rather a significant obstacle towards sympathizing with his character. In their scenes together, Leto matches McConaughy’s charisma with a startling energy and determination. He refuses to allow McConaughy’s star power to gobble up the entire screen. He offers a sympathetic portrayal of a transsexual woman in an era that discriminated against anyone who challenged prescribed gender and sexual roles.

            While McConaughy and Leto offer compelling performances, the rest of the film fails to meet the challenge of its subject matter. In telling the story of Woodruff, a heterosexual man, who becomes a pioneer in battling the stigma of AIDS, the film relies on Hollywood paternalistic tropes of a “normal” person standing up for the oppressed minority—for examples look at some recent Oscar nominated films: white lady saves black kid (The Blind Side), white man ends slavery (Lincoln), or white lady supports civil rights (The Help). Rather than showing how gay and lesbian activists challenged bigotry and oppression, we have Matthew McConaughy, the embodiment of a rugged and heterosexual masculine identity, leading the charge. At the end of the film, Woodruff’s patients cheer and celebrate him for standing up to the FDA. The majority of AIDS victims in the film spend their time waiting in lines to get drugs from Woodruff—seeking a cure from the straight white man. As Woodruff fights the FDA, the plot of the film descends into a tried and true narrative of man against uncaring and crooked institution.

            Yet within the film lay the potential for a much more meaningful story. The AIDS crisis of the 1980s produced frightening levels of bigotry, homophobia, and blatantly false information about the spread of HIV. President Reagan refused to call the disease by its name. The American government’s lack of response to the crisis remains a stain on the history of America in the 1980s. The gay rights movement, begun in earnest in the 1960s, gained traction by protesting discrimination and homophobia. The film attempts to capture some of this fear and paranoia, but fails to fully grasp it. After learning of his diagnosis, Woodruff’s rodeo buddies recoil in horror at the prospect of even touching him. They pelt him with homophobic slurs. The scenes, however, come across more as acknowledgments of the era’s bigotry than effectively recapturing it. Instead of spending more time on this part of the AIDS crisis, the film has Woodruff woe Eve, the female doctor (whose character remains horribly underdeveloped), fly around the world looking for drugs, and battle the FDA in court. Rayon, meanwhile, sells her life insurance policy in order help Woodruff stay in business—the ultimate selfless act by an oppressed minority to help her paternalist benefactor.

            Dallas Buyers Club warrants praise for addressing a dark and disturbing part of American history. Yet it squanders the opportunity to tell a meaningful or challenging version of that story. It instead settles for a comforting and safe history of an era marked by bigotry and discrimination. 

Justified Season 5

            Last Wednesday, Justified concluded its fifth season on FX. The show stars Timothy Olyphant as Raylan Givens, a deputy U.S. Marshal, and follows his life in his home of Harlan County, Kentucky. Raylan shares a bond with local self-styled “outlaw” Boyd Crowder (Walton Goggins). Boyd and Raylan live on opposite sides of the law, but have a long personal history—they dug coal together, as one of them usually reminds the audience. As in past seasons, Justified introduced a new villain to serve as foil for both Raylan and Boyd. The show introduced Darryl Crowe Jr. (Michael Rappaport) and his family from Florida, cousins of Harlan criminal, comic foil, and universal sad sack Dewey Crowe. Ultimately, the fifth season of Justified represented one of the show’s weaker story arcs, muddled by too many plot lines, and the relegation of Raylan to a side character for much of the season.

            Justified expended much of its narrative energy on Boyd’s attempts to become a large scale heroin dealer. The arc began promisingly with a darkly hilarious trip to Detroit as Boyd and partner Wynn Duffy attempted to import heroin through Canada. Murdering Detroit mobsters and their dismembered manikins waylaid Boyd’s plans—the mobsters explained the manikins thusly, “That was last week.” Once Boyd turned his focus to Mexico the plotline unraveled. The involvement of Boyd’s cousin and rival Johnny, squabbles with the Crowes, and tensions with Memphis based drug dealers devoured the middle part of the season, while offering little payoff. As Boyd’s heroin schemes faced delay after delay and disaster after disaster, even Boyd became exacerbated by the whole exercise. In a confrontation with Darryl Crowe, some Memphis hitmen, and his partners, Boyd expressed the audience’s frustration when he wished that they would all just shoot each other and figure out the heroin later.

            The imprisonment of Boyd’s fiancé Ava also dragged down the pace of the season. Her storyline grew increasingly separate from the rest of show as the season went on. The series used increasingly bizarre means to keep Ava in jail, culminating in having a county jail guard shiv himself to get Ava sent to state prison. Justified showrunner Graham Yost has explained in recent interviews that the writers wanted the plotline to force Ava to rely on herself and compel her (at the end of the season) to turn against Boyd. Watching Ava’s storyline over the course of the season, the show’s writers mapped out storyline accordingly instead of letting it evolve organically. What could have been an interesting idea about the power of prison to strip away Ava’s humanity, instead dragged on too long and had little relation to rest of the action in Justified.

            Raylan spent most of the season as a secondary character with Ava and Boyd carrying the longer narrative arcs. Raylan, instead, became enmeshed in standalone episodes. Justified has always balanced episodes of the week with longer story arcs, but the show put Raylan largely on the sidelines for much of the season. The best seasons of Justified—the 2^nd and 4^th—have Raylan and Boyd working at parallel goals. The second season featured a confrontation with Mags Bennett and her family and the fourth attempted to unravel the identity of a mob-connected man named Drew Thompson. With the two main characters working at totally different purposes, Justified suffered from a lack of narrative focus. Even Raylan’s dealings with the Crowes, the ostensible villains of the season, lacked the dramatic tension present in other seasons. The show talked much more about the villainy of the Crowes rather than actually demonstrating it. In the season finale, Darryl Crowe Jr. slipped past a tailing Marshal by running a red light. The writers should have slipped Darryl some of Mags Bennett’s “apple pie” moonshine much earlier in the season.

             While a weak season by Justified standards, the fifth season featured some funny and strong character moments. Timothy Olyphant shined in the season finale describing his difficulty in taking a life when his father made him shoot a feral pig. Walton Goggins had some strong moments especially his growing exasperation at the heroin business and his transformation of a pack of cigarettes into high explosives. Even in its weaker seasons, Raylan, Boyd, and the stupidity of Harlan’s criminal class make Justified an enjoyable and essential viewing experience. 

2014 AL Preview

I previewed the National League last week. This week is the American League.

AL East

           

Tampa Bay Rays: 94-68

            Rays manager Joe Maddon employs aggressive defensive shifts, platoons, and pinch hitters. With their small budget, the Rays use every roster spot to try and gain an advantage. They will benefit from retaining ace David Price and a full season’s worth of production from outfielder Wil Myers. Myers, Price, and a healthy Evan Longoria may finally take the Rays to a World Series title.

Boston Red Sox: 92-70

            Everything went right for the Red Sox last year. They avoided major injuries and Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and John Lackey all bounced back from major injuries. The depth of the Red Sox farm system allowed them to eschew big money free agent signings this offseason. They instead filled out their roster with rookies (Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.) and free agent fliers (Grady Sizemore). Their depth should mitigate against any major regression.  

New York Yankees: 85-77

            The Yankees have a wide range of outcomes this season. If Mashiro Tanaka adjusts easily to the US, C.C. Sabbathia locates his missing velocity, and Mark Teixeira finds his home run stroke again, the Yankees could win 95 games. If not, they could win closer to 80. Brian McCann and Ellsbury are significant upgrades, but their infield is a walking disabled list. With an aging Derek Jeter at short, the perennially injured Brian Roberts at second, and Kelly Johnson at third, be prepared for a lot groundballs sneaking into the outfield.

Toronto Blue Jays: 82-80

            The Blue Jays will once again struggle to compete. They have some talented players, Jose Batista, Jose Reyes, and R.A. Dickey, but not enough depth or top flight talent to compete against the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees. League average filler like Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow Macier Izturis and Jonathan Diaz will not lead the Blue Jays to the playoffs.  

Baltimore Orioles:  78-84

            The Orioles won 93 games in 2012 on the strength of a 29-9 record in 1 run games. They fell to 85 wins last year with a 20-31 record in 1 run games. Chris Davis’s monster power numbers should continue, but Nick Markasis is an expansive and aging out-machine.  The Orioles lack the depth of the other AL East heavyweights.

AL Central  

   

Detroit Tigers: 91-71

            Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez anchor the strongest starting pitching staff in the American League. Moving Miguel Cabrera back to first base and replacing him with rookie Nick Castellanos should improve the Tigers’ anemic defense. Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and new arrival Ian Kinsler should provide more than enough offense for Detroit to win another division title.

Cleveland Indians: 86-76

            The Indians will need big seasons from young starters Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar to compete for a wildcard berth. They will also bet on Yan Gomes’s pitch framing skills being an improvement over Carlos Santana. Santana, a patient hitter with power, will move to third base. The Indians will also have to hope that second baseman Jason Kipnis can build on his breakout 2013 season.

Kansas City Royals: 81-81

            If the Royals have hope of contending this season, they will need rookie flamethrower Yordano Ventura to have a stellar rookie campaign. James Shields is an unquestioned ace, but the Royals also feature replacement level starters in Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jason Vargas. Last season’s out-machines Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain will need major improvements for the Royals to compete.

Chicago White Sox: 74-88

            The White Sox had an aggressive offseason, signing Cuban slugger Jose Abreu, trading closer Addison Reed for Diamondbacks third base prospect Matt Davidson, and acquired outfielder Adam Eaton from Arizona (as part of a larger 3 team trade). GM Rick Hahn brought in young talent that should help the next White Sox contending team. They may even beat this projection behind ace starter Chris Sale and if Abreu can offer 25-30 home runs.

Minnesota Twins:  66-96

            The Twins are marking time until the arrival of top prospects outfielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano. Currently their offense is Joe Mauer and eight other dudes. They spent a lot of money this offseason on third and fourth starter types like Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. That may prevent the Twins from bottoming out, but probably not.

AL West   

     

Oakland A’s: 91-73

            Like the Rays and Red Sox, the A’s maximize their roster spots to gain platoon advantages, use defensive shifts, and shuffle players according to matchups.  They lack the financial resources to compete with the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Rangers. So they identify players with undervalued skills (Coco Crisp, Brandon Moss, Nick Punto) and offer them playing time unavailable on other big money contending teams.

Texas Rangers: 84-78

            Injuries have already devastated the Rangers this season. Yu Darvish missed his first start because of a stiff neck. Starters Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, and Colby Lewis are all on the disabled list. Converted reliever Tanner Scheppers took the hill on Opening Day. The Rangers should have a strong offense with Shin Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and the underrated Adrian Beltre (just don’t touch his head). But their pitching injuries will cause them to fall behind the A’s.

Los Angeles Angels: 80-82

            While much of the focus will be on whether Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton can return to form, keep an eye on the back end of the Angels pitching staff. If newly acquired starters Tyler Skaggs (a former Angels prospect) and Hector Santiago can pitch well, the Angels may have a shot at the AL West crown. Also they have Mike Trout, the unquestioned best player in baseball.

Seattle Mariners: 74-88

            The Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a massive 10 year, 240 million dollar contract and then stopped spending money. If they really wanted to compete, the Mariners should have signed Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana and Nelson Cruz and kept upgrading their team. Instead they have holes in the outfield and starting rotation after Felix Hernandez. Cano and Hernandez are the foundations of a championship team, not one in and of themselves.

Houston Astros: 65-97

            The Astros have bottomed out the last several seasons, taking advantage of loopholes in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that encourage tanking. As a result, they have owned the number 1 overall pick in the draft for the past two seasons and will have it again this year. They also have the largest spending pool for their signing their drafted players—allowing them to outspend other teams in the draft. The Astros climb towards contention won’t be complete for another year or two, but the benefits of the tanking strategy should soon bear fruit. Outfielder George Springer, starter Mark Appel, and shortstop Carlos Correa are all nearing the majors. They may be a joke now, but in a few years, the Astros may have the last laugh. 

2014 NL Preview

            With the Major League Baseball season beginning in earnest this week, I wanted to make some predictions for each league and then individual awards and playoffs. Since, in the words of screenwriter William Goldman, nobody knows anything, I admit I have no idea how the season will turn out. I wrote this solely to amuse myself. Today, I will cover the National League. Later in the week, I will address the American League and the playoffs/individual awards. 

 NL East: Projected W-L

Washington Nationals: 93-69

            I think the Nationals take a leap forward this season. Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Jordan Zimmerman, and Gio Gonzalez anchor a strong starting rotation. Their lineup should score plenty of runs behind Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, and Jayson Werth. They also have the advantage of playing some very weak teams within their own division (the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins).  

Atlanta Braves: 86-76

            Injuries have already felled Braves starters Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen for the entire season. Meanwhile Gavin Floyd continues his recovery from a UCL tear and Mike Minor has struggled with a sore shoulder. Recent signee Ervin Santana will lead the patchwork pitching staff. The Braves will need outfielder B.J. Upton and second baseman Dan Uggla to offer some level of competency to bolster the team’s offense.

New York Mets: 77-85

            This season the Mets will begin their climb back towards respectability. By next season, they will have three young and promising starters in Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Matt Harvey. David Wright continues to be one of better third basemen in the league. Travis d’Arnaud could be a significant upgrade at catcher. The best outcome for the Mets may be closing in on a .500 season.

Philadelphia Phillies: 75-87

            The Phillies have two ace left-handed pitchers in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Unfortunately that’s about all they have.  Ben Revere, with a .324 career OBP, will lead off in front of an aging Jimmy Rollins, an oft-injured Chase Utley, and the corpse of Ryan Howard. But good news, Phillies fans, they only owe closer Jonathan Papelbon 26 million dollars over the next two years and Ryan Howard 85 million over the next three!  There are long days ahead in Philadelphia.

Miami  Marlins: 74-88

            Giancarlo Stanton’s 40 home run power and Jose Fernandez’s dazzling pitching are the only reasons to watch this pathetic franchise.

NL Central 

St. Louis Cardinals: 94-68

            The Cardinals have a deep roster and have improved on last year’s World Series team. I would rather see flamethrowers Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen. Yet the Cardinals rotation will include staff ace Adam Wainwright and second year pitchers Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller. Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina highlight a deep lineup.   

Pittsburgh Pirates: 82-80

            The Pirates will likely regress from last year’s playoff team. A.J. Burnett signed with the Phillies. Francisco Liriano will likely not repeat his otherworldly numbers from last season. The Pirates also have a gaping hole at 1B. If outfielder Gregory Polanco and starting pitcher Jamieson Taillon arrive midseason, then the Pirates might hang around in the wildcard race. They will likely finish the season around .500.

Cincinnati Reds: 78-84

            Last season, the Reds featured only two above average hitters in their lineup, Joey Votto and Shin Soo Choo. And Choo now plays for the Texas Rangers. As long as out-machines Billy Hamilton and Zack Cosart occupy spots in the lineup and second baseman Brandon Phillips continues his march toward mediocrity, the Reds will have trouble scoring runs. Their rotation will need a lot of healthy starts from Mat Latos and Homer Bailey to cover their other weaknesses.

Milwaukee Brewers: 76-86

            Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Khris Davis comprise one of the strongest outfields in the league. If third baseman Aramis Ramirez can hit 25 homers, the Brewers might survive starting Lyle Overbay at first base and Scooter Gennett at second. Unfortunately third starters like Yovanni Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, and Matt Garza populate their starting rotation. If the pitching staff can improve, the Brewers may be a surprise wild-card contender.  

Chicago Cubs: 66-96

            Theo Epstein’s rebuilding effort will soon pay off. By next season, the Cubs infield could feature four starters 25 years old and younger: 1B Anthony Rizzo (25), 2B Javier Baez (22), SS Starlin Castro (25), and 3B Kris Bryant (23). Bryant and outfielder Jorge Soler will continue their climb up the organizational ladder this season. The Cubs are still a year or two away, but their young talent is coming… and soon.

NL West 

Los Angeles Dodgers: 91-71

            Two hundred and twenty five million dollars can’t always buy a World Series championship, but it can probably buy an NL West division title. With Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Dodgers should have one of two best starting rotation in the NL (the other being the Nationals). They also have a strong offense behind Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Yaisel “Won’t somebody please think of the children!” Puig.

San Francisco Giants: 87-75

            This could be a bounce-back year for the Giants. Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain headline a strong pitching staff. Improving first baseman Brandon Belt and newly svelte third baseman Pablo Sandoval should help catcher Buster Posey and outfielder Hunter Pence to form an above average offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 81-81

            Newly acquired slugger Mark Trumbo will pair with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to form a strong nucleus for the starting lineup. The loss of starter Patrick Corbin to injury will hurt the Diamondbacks starting rotation. The Diamondbacks have also hurt their future by trading away young players like Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Bauer, Matt Davidson, and Adam Eaton for little in return.

San Diego Padres: 79-83

            The Padres have some intriguing young players like second baseman Jedd Gyorko and shortstop Evereth Cabrera. They also have a lot of average to mediocre players like Carlos Quentin and Tyson Ross. The Padres should be competitive, but don’t expect much more.

Colorado Rockies: 68-94

            The Rockies have superstar caliber players in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Injuries, however, cause Tulowitzki and Gonzalez to routinely miss one to two months every season. Star pitching prospects Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray offer hope for the future, as soon as next season. But not soon enough for the 2014 Rockies.