2014 AL Preview

I previewed the National League last week. This week is the American League.

AL East

           

Tampa Bay Rays: 94-68

            Rays manager Joe Maddon employs aggressive defensive shifts, platoons, and pinch hitters. With their small budget, the Rays use every roster spot to try and gain an advantage. They will benefit from retaining ace David Price and a full season’s worth of production from outfielder Wil Myers. Myers, Price, and a healthy Evan Longoria may finally take the Rays to a World Series title.

Boston Red Sox: 92-70

            Everything went right for the Red Sox last year. They avoided major injuries and Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and John Lackey all bounced back from major injuries. The depth of the Red Sox farm system allowed them to eschew big money free agent signings this offseason. They instead filled out their roster with rookies (Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.) and free agent fliers (Grady Sizemore). Their depth should mitigate against any major regression.  

New York Yankees: 85-77

            The Yankees have a wide range of outcomes this season. If Mashiro Tanaka adjusts easily to the US, C.C. Sabbathia locates his missing velocity, and Mark Teixeira finds his home run stroke again, the Yankees could win 95 games. If not, they could win closer to 80. Brian McCann and Ellsbury are significant upgrades, but their infield is a walking disabled list. With an aging Derek Jeter at short, the perennially injured Brian Roberts at second, and Kelly Johnson at third, be prepared for a lot groundballs sneaking into the outfield.

Toronto Blue Jays: 82-80

            The Blue Jays will once again struggle to compete. They have some talented players, Jose Batista, Jose Reyes, and R.A. Dickey, but not enough depth or top flight talent to compete against the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees. League average filler like Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow Macier Izturis and Jonathan Diaz will not lead the Blue Jays to the playoffs.  

Baltimore Orioles:  78-84

            The Orioles won 93 games in 2012 on the strength of a 29-9 record in 1 run games. They fell to 85 wins last year with a 20-31 record in 1 run games. Chris Davis’s monster power numbers should continue, but Nick Markasis is an expansive and aging out-machine.  The Orioles lack the depth of the other AL East heavyweights.

AL Central  

   

Detroit Tigers: 91-71

            Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez anchor the strongest starting pitching staff in the American League. Moving Miguel Cabrera back to first base and replacing him with rookie Nick Castellanos should improve the Tigers’ anemic defense. Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and new arrival Ian Kinsler should provide more than enough offense for Detroit to win another division title.

Cleveland Indians: 86-76

            The Indians will need big seasons from young starters Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar to compete for a wildcard berth. They will also bet on Yan Gomes’s pitch framing skills being an improvement over Carlos Santana. Santana, a patient hitter with power, will move to third base. The Indians will also have to hope that second baseman Jason Kipnis can build on his breakout 2013 season.

Kansas City Royals: 81-81

            If the Royals have hope of contending this season, they will need rookie flamethrower Yordano Ventura to have a stellar rookie campaign. James Shields is an unquestioned ace, but the Royals also feature replacement level starters in Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jason Vargas. Last season’s out-machines Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain will need major improvements for the Royals to compete.

Chicago White Sox: 74-88

            The White Sox had an aggressive offseason, signing Cuban slugger Jose Abreu, trading closer Addison Reed for Diamondbacks third base prospect Matt Davidson, and acquired outfielder Adam Eaton from Arizona (as part of a larger 3 team trade). GM Rick Hahn brought in young talent that should help the next White Sox contending team. They may even beat this projection behind ace starter Chris Sale and if Abreu can offer 25-30 home runs.

Minnesota Twins:  66-96

            The Twins are marking time until the arrival of top prospects outfielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano. Currently their offense is Joe Mauer and eight other dudes. They spent a lot of money this offseason on third and fourth starter types like Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. That may prevent the Twins from bottoming out, but probably not.

AL West   

     

Oakland A’s: 91-73

            Like the Rays and Red Sox, the A’s maximize their roster spots to gain platoon advantages, use defensive shifts, and shuffle players according to matchups.  They lack the financial resources to compete with the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Rangers. So they identify players with undervalued skills (Coco Crisp, Brandon Moss, Nick Punto) and offer them playing time unavailable on other big money contending teams.

Texas Rangers: 84-78

            Injuries have already devastated the Rangers this season. Yu Darvish missed his first start because of a stiff neck. Starters Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, and Colby Lewis are all on the disabled list. Converted reliever Tanner Scheppers took the hill on Opening Day. The Rangers should have a strong offense with Shin Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and the underrated Adrian Beltre (just don’t touch his head). But their pitching injuries will cause them to fall behind the A’s.

Los Angeles Angels: 80-82

            While much of the focus will be on whether Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton can return to form, keep an eye on the back end of the Angels pitching staff. If newly acquired starters Tyler Skaggs (a former Angels prospect) and Hector Santiago can pitch well, the Angels may have a shot at the AL West crown. Also they have Mike Trout, the unquestioned best player in baseball.

Seattle Mariners: 74-88

            The Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a massive 10 year, 240 million dollar contract and then stopped spending money. If they really wanted to compete, the Mariners should have signed Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana and Nelson Cruz and kept upgrading their team. Instead they have holes in the outfield and starting rotation after Felix Hernandez. Cano and Hernandez are the foundations of a championship team, not one in and of themselves.

Houston Astros: 65-97

            The Astros have bottomed out the last several seasons, taking advantage of loopholes in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that encourage tanking. As a result, they have owned the number 1 overall pick in the draft for the past two seasons and will have it again this year. They also have the largest spending pool for their signing their drafted players—allowing them to outspend other teams in the draft. The Astros climb towards contention won’t be complete for another year or two, but the benefits of the tanking strategy should soon bear fruit. Outfielder George Springer, starter Mark Appel, and shortstop Carlos Correa are all nearing the majors. They may be a joke now, but in a few years, the Astros may have the last laugh.