2014 NL Preview

            With the Major League Baseball season beginning in earnest this week, I wanted to make some predictions for each league and then individual awards and playoffs. Since, in the words of screenwriter William Goldman, nobody knows anything, I admit I have no idea how the season will turn out. I wrote this solely to amuse myself. Today, I will cover the National League. Later in the week, I will address the American League and the playoffs/individual awards. 

 NL East: Projected W-L

Washington Nationals: 93-69

            I think the Nationals take a leap forward this season. Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Jordan Zimmerman, and Gio Gonzalez anchor a strong starting rotation. Their lineup should score plenty of runs behind Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, and Jayson Werth. They also have the advantage of playing some very weak teams within their own division (the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins).  

Atlanta Braves: 86-76

            Injuries have already felled Braves starters Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen for the entire season. Meanwhile Gavin Floyd continues his recovery from a UCL tear and Mike Minor has struggled with a sore shoulder. Recent signee Ervin Santana will lead the patchwork pitching staff. The Braves will need outfielder B.J. Upton and second baseman Dan Uggla to offer some level of competency to bolster the team’s offense.

New York Mets: 77-85

            This season the Mets will begin their climb back towards respectability. By next season, they will have three young and promising starters in Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Matt Harvey. David Wright continues to be one of better third basemen in the league. Travis d’Arnaud could be a significant upgrade at catcher. The best outcome for the Mets may be closing in on a .500 season.

Philadelphia Phillies: 75-87

            The Phillies have two ace left-handed pitchers in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Unfortunately that’s about all they have.  Ben Revere, with a .324 career OBP, will lead off in front of an aging Jimmy Rollins, an oft-injured Chase Utley, and the corpse of Ryan Howard. But good news, Phillies fans, they only owe closer Jonathan Papelbon 26 million dollars over the next two years and Ryan Howard 85 million over the next three!  There are long days ahead in Philadelphia.

Miami  Marlins: 74-88

            Giancarlo Stanton’s 40 home run power and Jose Fernandez’s dazzling pitching are the only reasons to watch this pathetic franchise.

NL Central 

St. Louis Cardinals: 94-68

            The Cardinals have a deep roster and have improved on last year’s World Series team. I would rather see flamethrowers Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez in the starting rotation rather than the bullpen. Yet the Cardinals rotation will include staff ace Adam Wainwright and second year pitchers Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller. Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina highlight a deep lineup.   

Pittsburgh Pirates: 82-80

            The Pirates will likely regress from last year’s playoff team. A.J. Burnett signed with the Phillies. Francisco Liriano will likely not repeat his otherworldly numbers from last season. The Pirates also have a gaping hole at 1B. If outfielder Gregory Polanco and starting pitcher Jamieson Taillon arrive midseason, then the Pirates might hang around in the wildcard race. They will likely finish the season around .500.

Cincinnati Reds: 78-84

            Last season, the Reds featured only two above average hitters in their lineup, Joey Votto and Shin Soo Choo. And Choo now plays for the Texas Rangers. As long as out-machines Billy Hamilton and Zack Cosart occupy spots in the lineup and second baseman Brandon Phillips continues his march toward mediocrity, the Reds will have trouble scoring runs. Their rotation will need a lot of healthy starts from Mat Latos and Homer Bailey to cover their other weaknesses.

Milwaukee Brewers: 76-86

            Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Khris Davis comprise one of the strongest outfields in the league. If third baseman Aramis Ramirez can hit 25 homers, the Brewers might survive starting Lyle Overbay at first base and Scooter Gennett at second. Unfortunately third starters like Yovanni Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, and Matt Garza populate their starting rotation. If the pitching staff can improve, the Brewers may be a surprise wild-card contender.  

Chicago Cubs: 66-96

            Theo Epstein’s rebuilding effort will soon pay off. By next season, the Cubs infield could feature four starters 25 years old and younger: 1B Anthony Rizzo (25), 2B Javier Baez (22), SS Starlin Castro (25), and 3B Kris Bryant (23). Bryant and outfielder Jorge Soler will continue their climb up the organizational ladder this season. The Cubs are still a year or two away, but their young talent is coming… and soon.

NL West 

Los Angeles Dodgers: 91-71

            Two hundred and twenty five million dollars can’t always buy a World Series championship, but it can probably buy an NL West division title. With Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Dodgers should have one of two best starting rotation in the NL (the other being the Nationals). They also have a strong offense behind Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Yaisel “Won’t somebody please think of the children!” Puig.

San Francisco Giants: 87-75

            This could be a bounce-back year for the Giants. Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain headline a strong pitching staff. Improving first baseman Brandon Belt and newly svelte third baseman Pablo Sandoval should help catcher Buster Posey and outfielder Hunter Pence to form an above average offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 81-81

            Newly acquired slugger Mark Trumbo will pair with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to form a strong nucleus for the starting lineup. The loss of starter Patrick Corbin to injury will hurt the Diamondbacks starting rotation. The Diamondbacks have also hurt their future by trading away young players like Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Bauer, Matt Davidson, and Adam Eaton for little in return.

San Diego Padres: 79-83

            The Padres have some intriguing young players like second baseman Jedd Gyorko and shortstop Evereth Cabrera. They also have a lot of average to mediocre players like Carlos Quentin and Tyson Ross. The Padres should be competitive, but don’t expect much more.

Colorado Rockies: 68-94

            The Rockies have superstar caliber players in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Injuries, however, cause Tulowitzki and Gonzalez to routinely miss one to two months every season. Star pitching prospects Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray offer hope for the future, as soon as next season. But not soon enough for the 2014 Rockies.