He's Back: Stephen Drew in 2014

            On Tuesday, the Boston Red Sox resigned shortstop Stephen Drew to a one year contract worth approximately ten million dollars. In the offseason, Drew rejected a qualifying offer from Boston that would have guaranteed him approximately fourteen million dollars. By not signing the qualifying offer, Drew would have cost any team that signed him (apart from Boston) a high draft pick. The draft pick compensation, as it has for other free agents in recent years, caused Drew’s market to dry up.

            Now that Drew has returned to the fold, what can the Red Sox expect from him for this season and what would be the best way to use him? Drew played in 124 games with 501 plate appearances last season. Below are his statistics (courtesy of Fangraphs) from 2013.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+	WAR
2013	.253	.333	.443	10.8	24.8	109	3.4

            Back in December, I argued that Drew represented an above average option at shortstop in 2013. Here’s a link to that piece—go read it. Back? Okay, good. Now we can look at what Drew can offer to the Red Sox in 2014.

First question, will he be an improvement at the production the Red Sox have gotten out from new shortstop Xander Bogaerts this year?

2014	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+	WAR
Bogaerts	.269	.369	.379	11.3%	22.6%	111	0.9

            Answer: not really. Xander Bogaerts has ably replaced Drew’s production. Drew possesses a bit more power, but Bogaerts is 21 years old and in his first full season in the majors. The power will come. Drew’s obviously not replacing Dustin Pedroia at second base, but what about the chronically injured Will Middlebrooks (currently on the DL) at third?  

2014	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+	WAR
Middlebrooks	.197	.305	.324	8.0%	28.0%	74	0.0

            Here’s an area where the Red Sox could use an upgrade—desperately. This year, Middlebrooks has had difficulty putting the ball in play, sporting a .261 BABIP, 30 points below his career average. His walk rate is up, but so is his sky-high strikeout rate. Offensively, he measures about 26% below league average. His short-term replacement, Brock Holt, is the definition of a no-hit utility man.

            Middlebrooks’s struggles are nothing new. Third base was where the Red Sox offense went to die last year. Will Middlebrooks, Jose Iglesias, Brandon Snyder, Brock Holt, Pedro Ciriaco, and Xander Bogaerts combined to offer zero wins above replacement—the equivalent of fielding a replaceable minor league veteran.

3B	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
2013	.250 (15th)	.300 (20th)	.392 (16th)	85 (20th)	0.0 (23rd)
2014	.196 (26th)	.301 (20th)	.266 (30th)	59 (27th)	-0.9 (28th)

            Horrified by that chart? Good.

The question remains where can Drew be most effective this season? A look at Drew’s career stats suggests that he should play regularly against right-handed pitchers, but not against lefties. Just look at his career splits.

Drew	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+
Vs. LHP	.235	.291	.390	7.5%	24.4%	74
Vs. RHP	.275	.343	.451	9.4%	16.4%	105

           

            What about Middlebrooks? In his short career, Middlebrooks has demonstrated one positive skill: hitting lefthanded pitchers.

Middlebrooks	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+
Vs. LHP	.288	.342	.491	7.0%	22.6%	123
Vs. RHP	.228	.273	.427	4.6%	27.3%	86

            But what about Bogaerts? Leave him alone and let him play every day. The most optimal lineup would feature Drew and Bogaerts against right-handers and Bogaerts and Middlebrooks should start against lefties. Will this solve all the Red Sox offensive problems? No, but the improvement from Middlebrooks playing every day to just against lefties should be worth about one or two wins over the season. With a seven game losing streak, the Red Sox can use every win they can get.