NFC 2014 Preview

            This will be the first of two posts predicting the win-loss records of NFL teams this season. This post will deal with the NFC. All of the statistics cited below are from Football Outsiders. DVOA is explained here.  

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	10-6	9.4	15.2% (8)	25.6%  (3)	22.9% (3)	4.9% (23)	-2.8% (25)

Last year, Chip Kelly transformed the Eagles into a top 3 offense using Nick Foles, a 3^rd round quarterback. His strength lies in creating multiple plays out of a single formation that confuse opposing defenses. With another offseason under his belt and the addition of Darren Sproles to the backfield, Kelly should lead the Eagles to their second consecutive division title. Their lackluster defense, however, will hold them back from a deep playoff run. 

2. Dallas Cowboys: 7-9

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	8-8	8.2	-2.8% (17)	-12.6% (25)	7.50% (11)	13.8% (30)	3.4% (8)

The Cowboys had one of the worst defenses in league last year and cut DeMarcus Ware, their only Pro-Bowl quality defender. On offense, the Cowboys should score plenty of points, especially with Terrance Williams sliding into the second WR spot alongside Dez Bryant. Tony Romo will continue to impress and depress, all in the same game. If the Cowboys struggle out of the gate, Jerry Jones may scapegoat coach Jason Garrett for his own continued and persistent failings as the league’s only owner-GM. 

3. New York Giants: 7-9

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	7-9	5.6	-15.7% (27)	-7.2% (22)	-22.0% (31)	-11.40% (6)	-5.10% (28)

Eli Manning was atrocious last year, seemingly sporting a new version of the Manning Face each week. He should improve under new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo’s West Coast offense that will stress short and high percentage completion passes. Competency on offense should bring the Giants back to respectability, but probably not much more than that.

4. Washington Professional Football Team: 5-11

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	3-13	4.8	-26.2% (29)	-26.1% (30)	-10.0% (23)	4.2% (21)	-12.0% (32)

Last year, Washington rushed Robert Griffin back from injury, sported a historically awful special teams, and a bad defense. A year later, Griffin is healthy, but in the preseason, looks lost. Jay Gruden has replaced Mike Shanahan. Who knows about their special teams? Washington inexplicably kept the defense, from coordinator Jim Haslett on down, intact. Their odious owner continues to defend the team’s racist nickname and agitate for a new stadium. All of this adds up to another last place finish.

NFC North

1. Chicago Bears: 11-5

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	8-8	7.3	6.60% (11)	-0.40% (14)	13.30% (6)	8.70% (25)	2.00% (11)

Like Chip Kelly, I believe in Chicago coach Marc Trestman. He turned Jay Cutler’s career around by getting him to cut down on high risk throws. Trestman made career backup Josh McCown into a viable starter. Offensively, the Bears feature a group of explosive playmakers including WRs Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and RB Matt Forte. The offense will put up points, so their woeful defense will dictate how far they go in the postseason.

2. Green Bay Packers: 9-7

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	8-7-1	7.8	-6.0% (20)	-13.4% (26)	8.6% (9)	14.4% (31)	-0.3% (19)

While popular among the public and the national media, the Packers are a dangerously thin team. Their defense has been terrible for years, but having Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Losing Rodgers, as happened last year, revealed the Packers lack of depth. If not for the late season return of Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb, the Packers were far too reminiscent of the 2011 Colts without Peyton Manning.

3. Minnesota Vikings: 7-9

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	5-10-1	6.1	-11.4% (26)	-9.60% (24)	-4.70% (21)	10.5% (27)	3.80% (6)

I think the Vikings will better on offense and defense. New head coach Mike Zimmer has a long and successful history as a defensive coordinator. New offensive coordinator Norv Turner should have plenty of fun drawing up plays for RB Adrian Peterson. The Vikings stole QB Teddy Bridgewater with the 32^nd pick in the draft. While they won’t make the playoffs, the Vikings should improve.

4. Detroit Lions: 5-11

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	7-9	8.5	-1.50% (16)	-1.50% (15)	-1.90% (19)	-0.80% (14)	-0.40% (20)

The Lions replaced the manic and aggressive Jim Schwartz with the comatose Jim Caldwell. Last year Caldwell oversaw the regression of the Ravens offense. This will be Caldwell’s second stint as a head coach. He was previously head coach of the Colts after serving as Peyton Manning’s quarterback coach. Here’s my question, does anyone think that Peyton Manning actually needs a quarterback coach?

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints: 11-5

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	11-5	10.8	19.3% (4)	19.7% (7)	16.0% (5)	-5.8% (10)	-2.5% (24)

After sporting a historically disastrous defense in 2012, the Saints hired Rex Ryan. Ryan returned the Saints defense to respectability and won the hearts of fans by embracing the city of New Orleans. In the offseason, the Saints added safety Jairus Byrd to bolster their backfield. They drafted WR Brandin Cooks in the first round to give Drew Brees another target. In order to go all-in on this season and next, current Saints GM Mickey Loomis is writing checks that future Mickey Loomis will have to pay.

2. Atlanta Falcons: 10-6

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	4-12	5.9	-10.4% (25)	-15.1% (27)	3.2% (14)	13.5% (29)	-0.1% (17)

Last season, the Falcons, fresh off an appearance in the NFC championship game, crashed back to earth. Injuries to WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White and RB Steven Jackson crippled the offense. They also underperformed according to their Pythagorean wins (an estimate of a team’s record based on points scored and allowed). Historically when a team has such a precipitous decline, they generally bounce significantly the next year. With an improved offensive line, the Falcons should return to playoff contention.

3. Carolina Panthers: 7-9

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	12-4	11.7	24.6% (3)	24.7% (4)	7.9% (10)	-15.7% (3)	1.0% (13)

The Panthers are in the opposite situation of the Falcons. They improved from 7 to 12 wins in a year. History tells us that teams that make such a dramatic improvement will regress the following year. Additionally the Panthers’ salary cap is a mess, constrained by the bad contracts handed out by former GM Marty Hurley. This season the Panthers will start castoffs Jericho Cotchery and Jason Avant. While watching Ron Rivera learn to go for it on fourth down last season was fun, it won’t last this year.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	4-12	5.3	-5.1% (19)	-5.8% (20)	-10.4% (24)	-6.8% (8)	-1.5% (12)

Every year people talk themselves into thinking the Bucaneers will be good. Yet it never happens and I see little reason for it to happen this year. Lovie Smith will be an improvement over Greg Schiano, but that won’t be enough. Josh McCown has been a career backup quarterback with little evidence that he can be a good starter. RB Doug Martin was terrible last year before getting hurt. They have to play the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers six teams a year. I think all of those teams are better.

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks: 12-4

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	13-3	12.8	40.0% (1)	43.7% (1)	9.4% (7)	-25.9% (1)	4.7% (5)

While the Seahawks defense won’t be as dominant as last season, they will be very good. Pete Carroll can coach defensive backs better than anyone else in the league. Losses on the defensive line will make them more vulnerable to the run. The offense will once again depend on RB Marshawn Lynch. If Percy Harvin can stay healthy (unlikely), they could be explosive offensively.

2. San Francisco 49ers: 11-5

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	12-4	11.5	17.4% (7)	21.3% (6)	9.1% (8)	-4.6% (13)	3.7% (7)

The 49ers have lost some significant contributors on defense. Aldon Smith will miss 9 games because of a suspension. Navarro Bowman continues to recover from an ACL and MCL tear. They’ve added depth on offensive with rookie RB Carlos Hyde and WR Stevie Johnson. A healthy Michael Crabtree should lead to a better offense. With Jim Harbaugh still at the helm, the 49ers should contend again.

3. Arizona Cardinals: 8-8

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	10-6	9.5	10.0% (10)	14.8% (11)	-2.4% (20)	-16.4% (2)	-4.1% (27)

The Cardinals offense is a mixed bag. Young RB Andre Ellington and WR Michael Floyd should take a step forward this season. QB Carson Palmer and WR Larry Fitzgerald will continue to decline. Between an average offense and brutal special teams, the Cardinals will need another stellar performance from their defense to remain in contention in this brutal division. That’s ultimately too much to ask as the Cardinals will fall back to .500.

4. St. Louis Rams: 6-10

	Win-Loss	Pythagorean Wins	DVOA (rank)	Weighted DVOA (rank)	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Defensive DVOA (rank)	Special Teams DVOA (rank)
2013 Stats	7-9	7.6	2.4% (14)	15.3% (10)	-9.5% (22)	-5.7% (11)	6.3% (4)

After another predictable injury to QB Sam Bradford, the Rams are set up for another lost season. The Robert Griffin trade brought a bounty of draft picks, but the Rams have yet to turn those picks into sustained success. They failed to find a viable replacement for Bradford. The Rams added Aaron Donald to a strong defensive line featuring Chris Long and Robert Quinn. Unfortunately, the defensive line won’t be able to carry the team to a playoff berth, let alone 8-8.