Fantasy Football Observations

            I like fantasy football—a lot. I enjoy drafting players, researching the weekly matchups, and agonizing over my lineup. Basically it’s an excuse to use my brain for sports—something I started doing a long time ago once I figured out that I would never play them well… or at all. So this my first post on fantasy football, I have no idea if I’ll do more, but we’ll see how this goes.

            This post will look at the top ten players at each position (according to ESPN standard scoring), relative to their draft position. I have broken it down by the three most important positions in fantasy: quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. A couple of caveats before we proceed, it’s only been three weeks so small sample size warnings apply. Those small sample sizes, however, can be important in fantasy, especially if you started out 0-3.  

Quarterbacks

	Points	Draft Position
1. Andrew Luck-IND	74	4
2. Peyton Manning-DEN	63	1
3. Matt Ryan-ATL	62	12
4. Jay Cutler-CHI	58	19
5. Nick Foles-PHI	57	10
6. Russell Wilson-SEA	55	8
7. Philip Rivers-SD	54	14
8. Drew Brees-NO	49	3
9. Aaron Rodgers-GB	46	2
9. Colin Kaepernick-SF	46	7

            Brees and Rodgers have underperformed relative to their draft position, but I think they’ll get better as the season progresses. The Matt Ryan-Philip Rivers-Jay Cutler trio represent the biggest surprises among the quarterbacks so far. All were drafted outside of the top ten and behind guys like Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, and Matthew Stafford. Cutler, the 19^th QB taken in drafts, went between Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill. Similarly ESPN drafters took Johnny Manziel ahead of Phillip Rivers. I believe that all three will finish inside the top ten of fantasy quarterbacks at the end of the season. Cutler has injury issues, but has cut down significantly on his interceptions. He also throws to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey. Last season, Ryan endured a season from hell as the Falcons collapsed from 13-3 to 4-12. In 2012, Ryan has Julio Jones and to a lesser extent Roddy White back from injury. In 2012, Rivers produced a QBR of 41.5. In 2013, under new coach Mike McCoy, he bounced back to 71.7. That improvement has continued this season.

Running Backs 

	Points	Draft Position
1. Marshawn Lynch-SEA	59	3
2. Demarco Murray-DAL	54	9
3. Le’Veon Bell-PIT	48	10
4. Giovanni Bernard-CIN	48	15
5. Rashard Jennings-NYG	46	21
6. Ahmad Bradshaw-IND	42	50
7. Darren Sproles-PHI	40	34
8. Knile Davis-KC	38	54
9. Alfred Morris-WAS	36	12
10. Chris Ivory-NYJ	35	39

            The running back position so far has been a mess. Seven out of the top ten drafted players have disappointed for a variety of reasons. Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, and Doug Martin have struggled with injuries. Eddie Lacy has endured some brutal matchups. Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy have underwhelmed and the less said about Adrian Peterson, the better. Knile Davis replaced Charles in Kansas City, but only has value if Charles is injured. Sproles and Jennings’s numbers are inflated by otherworldly Week 2 and Week 3 performances. I believe the most in Ahmad Bradshaw. He has played well in place of the perpetually ineffective Trent Richardson. He can also catch passes out of the backfield. With a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck, Bradshaw should have plenty of opportunities going forward.

Wide Receivers 

	Points	Draft Position
1. Julio Jones-ATL	51	6
2. Antonio Brown-PIT	48	9
3. Jeremy Maclin-PHI	46	26
4. Calvin Johnson-DET	44	1
5. Jordy Nelson-GB	39	7
6. Kelvin Benjamin-CAR	36	46
7. Allen Hurns-JAC	36	40
8. Dez Bryant-DAL	35	4
9. Steve Smith-BAL	34	41
10. Brandon Marshall-CHI	33	5
10. Julian Edelman-NE	33	23
10. DeAndre Hopkins-HOU	33	37

            The wide receivers, like the quarterbacks, have been relatively stable. Guys like Jones, Brown, Nelson, Johnson, Bryant, and Marshall have justified their high draft spots. Meanwhile Demaryius Thomas and A.J. Green have underperformed relative to last year’s performances. The biggest surprises are Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin, Allen Hurns, and DeAndre Hopkins. Maclin has replaced Desean Jackson as the number one wide receiver in Chip Kelly’s offense—whether he can stay healthy remains to be seen. With no options other than tight end Greg Olson, Kelvin Benjamin has become a favorite option of Cam Newton. Hurns’s high ranking is the product of a twenty two point first week, when no one played him anyway. I believe the most in DeAndre Hopkins. The second year wide receiver has 13 catches out of 19 targets for 2 TDs and 227 yards.