New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Playoff Preview

            The Saints-Eagles game on Saturday night offers the most exciting matchup of this weekend’s opening round. Both teams feature high scoring offenses with aggressive and innovative head coaches. New Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has revitalized the moribund Saints defense and first year Eagles Chip Kelly has successfully translated his up-tempo offense from college to the pros. Let’s break down the teams and see how they compare on offense and defense.  

OFFENSE

            Before analyzing the component parts of each offense, let’s look them as a whole. DVOA is a statistical measure from Football Outsiders and it contextualizes and measures each team according to its offense, defense, and special teams. A more thorough explanation of DVOA can be found here. 

	Points	Yards per Game	Points per Game	Offensive DVOA (rank)	Weighted Offensive DVOA*
Eagles	442	417.3	27.6	2nd	3rd
Saints	414	399.4	25.9	5th	5th

* Weighted DVOA places more emphasis on recent performance, so it serves as a good indicator of the effectiveness of the offense at the end of the season.

The Eagles hold slight edges in points, yards, and DVOA. Overall, in a game featuring two of the top five offenses in the league, the Eagles hold a slight advantage.

QUARTERBACKS

	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Completion %	QBR (rank overall)
Nick Foles (PHI)	2,891	27	2	64.4%	69 (4th)
Drew Brees (NO)	5,162	39	12	68.8%	70.5 (3rd)

Foles assumed the starter’s job following an injury to Michael Vick in early October and produced some impressive numbers. Commentators have raved about his lack of interceptions and his two picks may seem impressive. They are, however, a product of luck. Foles threw a interception on only 0.60% of his passing attempts this season. The league average is 2.9%. Had Foles produced a league average INT rate he would have thrown 9 picks. His touchdown to interception ratio would then be 27-9, right in line with Brees’s. In this matchup, the Saints and Brees have the advantage.  

RUNNING GAMES

            LeSean McCoy of the Eagles led the NFL in rushing this season. The Saints, meanwhile, rotated Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson, and Mark Ingram through their RB slot.

	Rushing Yards	Yards per Rush	Touchdowns	Yards per Game
McCoy	1,607	5.1	9	100.4
Saints RBs	1,473	3.8	10	92.1

The Philadelphia rushing attack ranked 1^st according to DVOA, the Saints ranked 19^th. The Eagles featured the best running back in the NFL and hold a significant advantage over the Saints running attack.

RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TDs	Yards Per Game
PHI	4,110	6.9	25	257
NO	4,918	7.9	39	307

The Saints feature the 3^rd ranked passing attack according to DVOA, while the Eagles ranked 5^th. The Saints have a varied offensive attack. They have a great pass-catcher out of the backfield in Sproles. Jimmy Graham creates major matchup problems for defenses out of the tight end spot. Brees has targeted rookie Kenny Stills on downfield throws. Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Robert Meachem are all reliable targets in the middle of the field. The Eagles heavily rely on the explosiveness of DeSean Jackson. McCoy and Riley Cooper represent the Eagles other passing threats. The Saints have the advantage in the passing attack.  

DEFENSE

Defending against these offenses will prove challenging for both teams. Under Ryan, the Saints defense improved from historic disaster to above average.  The Eagles defense began the season poorly before improving near the end of the season.  According to DVOA, the Saints defense finished 10^th best in the league and 9^th in weighted DVOA. The Saints defended well against the pass with the 6^th best pass defense, but their rushing defense ranked only 20^th. Unfortunately for the Saints, the Eagles feature the league’s best running attack. The Eagles, meanwhile, ranked 23^rd in DVOA, but 15^th in weighted DVOA. Their pass defense finished the year in 25^th place and 12^th in rushing. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Saints have the 3^rd best passing attack in the NFL. Saints TE Jimmy Graham has a very favorable matchup against the Eagles defense. The Eagles defense ranked 24^th overall in DVOA against tight ends. If the Saints can feed Graham the ball early and often, the Eagles could be in for a long day. If LeSean McCoy can find running lanes, the Saints could be heading back to the bayou Saturday night.

SPECIAL TEAMS

           

            The Eagles and Saints field below average special teams. The Saints and Eagles finished 24^th and 25^th in DVOA. Both teams have struggled in the return game, posting below average numbers. Saints punter Thomas Morstead produced another strong season. He ranked 3^rd in the NFL with a net yard average of 42.3 on his punts. Eagles punter Donnie Jones finished 9^th with a 40.5 net yard average.  Eagles kicker Alex Henry offered league average production, hitting 82.1% of his field goals. He made 23 of 28 field goal attempts. Sean Payton is desperately seeking stability from his kicker. Garrett Hartley, who was released before Week 16, converted only 73.3% (22 of 30) field goal attempts—good for 31^st in the league.  According to Football Outsiders, Hartley cost the Saints nearly 14 points as a result of his field goal misses. The Saints, however, signed Shayne Graham, with his career 85.467% conversion rate (10^th among active players, and 11^th all-time), to stabilize the kicking game. Graham’s replacement of Hartley eliminated the weakest part of the Saints’ special teams.

FINAL ANALYSIS

            Since the Saints and Eagles offensive strengths correspond to the opposing defense’s weaknesses, the game should come down to which offense can execute most effectively. Payton, Brees, and the Saints passing game should be able to exploit the Eagles weak secondary. Kelly, Foles, and McCoy should be able to find running lanes and attack the Saints front seven.

Saints 34, Eagles 31