AFC Championship Preview: New England vs. Denver

            On Sunday, the Patriots and Broncos will play for the AFC championship in Denver. They last met in Week 12 at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots had a 2% win expectancy going into halftime down 24-0. They, however, rallied for a 34-31 overtime win. The Patriots fumbled on three consecutive opening drives and the game featured 11 fumbles. After the Patriots took a 31-24 lead, Peyton Manning completed an 11 yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas to tie the game and force OT. The Patriots won the toss and took the wind. Late in the overtime period, Bronco Tony Carter touched a Ryan Allen punt and Nate Ebner recovered the ball at the Denver 11 yard line. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski hit a 31 yard field goal 1:56 remaining to win the game for the Patriots.

            The AFC championship game should bear little resemblance to the Week 12 matchup. Both teams have undergone significant injuries and personnel changes. Denver will have its head coach, John Fox, on the sidelines this weekend. In Week 12, Fox was still recovering from heart surgery, leaving defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio as the interim coach. Cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, injured during the game, and tight end Julius Thomas, who missed the Week 12 game with an injury, will play on Sunday. Denver has also lost cornerback Chris Harris and linebacker Von Miller to season ending injuries. The Patriots lost their supremely talented, but oft injured, tight end Rob Gronkowski to an ACL tear in Week 14 against Cleveland. Run blocking linebacker Brandon Spikes was also recently placed on IR.

Keeping all this in mind, how do these teams match up this week?

Overall

            According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric* that includes the playoffs and weighs the end of the season more heavily, the teams compare this way:

	Patriots	Denver
Total DVOA (overall rank)	30.4% (2nd)	27.2% (3rd)

* A reminder, DVOA contextualizes and measures each team according to its offense, defense, and special teams; each percentage point represents one point above or below league average. Good offenses have positive DVOA scores and good defenses have negative ones. A more thorough explanation of DVOA can be found here. 

           

Using regular season DVOA, they compare this way:

	Patriots	Denver
DVOA (overall rank)	19.0% (5th)	32.8% (2nd)

            The Patriots of the past few weeks have been the second best team in the league, comparing favorably to the Broncos. Denver’s DVOA suggests that they have played extremely well across the entire season, finishing 2^nd in regular season DVOA for the second straight year.

Patriots Offense vs. Denver Defense

           

	Patriots Offense	Denver Defense
Overall DVOA (rank)	16.4% (4th)	-0.2% (15th)
Weighted DVOA (rank)	26.2% (2nd)	-5.6% (10th)
Passing Rank	28.1% (7th)	10.2% (21st)
Rushing Rank	7.0% (6th)	-14.4% (9th)

           

In Week 12, Brandon Bolden led the Patriots with 58 yards rushing. The Patriots benched LeGarrette Blount and Steven Ridley because of the aforementioned fumbling problems. Since the loss of Gronkowski, the Patriots have reinvented their offense, becoming a power running team behind LeGarrette Blount. Steven Ridley has become the second back, replacing Blount for stretches and Shane Vereen serves a pass receiver and third down back. In order to win Sunday, the Patriots will need to continue to attack with their running game. If the Patriots offensive line can manhandle Denver’s front four, like they have against the Colts and Bills, New England could grab the upper hand. A successful running game would keep Manning on the sidelines and allow Brady to use play action against the weakened Denver secondary. The Denver defense will have to stop the running game up front and hope for another fumble fest.  

Denver Offense vs. Patriots Defense

	Denver Offense	Patriots Defense
Overall DVOA (rank)	33.7% (1st)	4.1% (21st)
Weighted DVOA (rank)	27.1% (1st)	9.2% (24th)
Passing DVOA (rank)	60.7% (1st)	3.9% (14th)
Rushing DVOA (rank)	4.3% (10th)	4.3% (27th)

Denver’s record breaking offense this season holds a major advantage over the injury riddled Patriots defense. The early season losses of Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, and Jerrod Mayo gutted the Patriots run defense. Denver ran early and often against the Patriots in Week 12 as Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno ran for 224 yards on 37 carries averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Monte Ball added another 40 yards on 7 rushes. In the first game, New England focused on stopping Denver’s potent passing attack. The Patriots held Demaryius Thomas to 4 catches for 41 yards, Wes Welker to 4 catches for 31 yards, and Eric Decker caught 1 pass for 5 yards. With Moreno slicing through New England’s defense, the Broncos did not need to throw the ball that much. Manning completed 19 of 36 passes for 150 yards although the wind clearly hampered his passing. Denver should hand the ball off to Moreno and Ball and exploit the weakened Patriots defense. The Patriots defense will have to pick their poison and try to pressure Manning early and get him out of his offensive rhythm.

Special Teams

	Patriots	Denver
Special Teams DVOA (rank)	6.7% (2nd)	-1.1% (21st)
Weighted Special Teams DVOA (rank)	7.6% (4th)	-5.3% (28th)

The Patriots hold a clear advantage on special teams. Both teams have excellent field goal kickers with Stephen Gostkowski ranking first in Football Outsiders kicking metrics and Denver’s Matt Prater ranking third. The matchup between Patriots punter Ryan Allen and the Denver punt returners presents the biggest mismatch on special teams. Allen is a very good directional punter and the Broncos have struggled returning punts.

Final Analysis

            This game should look nothing like the Week 12 matchup. The Patriots have completely overhauled their offense. Denver has lost several key players to injury. The game should hinge on the effectiveness of each team’s running game. If LeGarrette Blount can gobble up four or five yards at a time, the Patriots should be able to pick apart Denver’s weakened secondary. If Moreno gashes the Patriots defense, Denver should score plenty of points. With Brady and Manning meeting for the fifteenth time, I imagine one of them will be driving down the field with the game on the line—I just hope its Brady.