Patriots-Ravens Preview

The Patriots and Ravens will play on Saturday for the fourth time in the playoffs since 2010. The Ravens hold a 2-1 edge in those matchups. In 2010, the Ravens upset the Patriots 33-14 and in 2013 beat New England 28-13 in the AFC Championship game. In 2012, the Patriots beat Baltimore 23-20 also in the AFC championship game. But the most important question is do these previous matchups have any predictive value for this week’s game?  

            No. The players, some of the coaches, and some of the schemes are all different. Lazy sports writing would have you believe that the Ravens have the key to beating New England or whatever other false narrative you’d like to construct. But the truth of it can be summed up this way: 

 

Moving on.

SETTING THE CONTEXT

	Total DVOA	Weighted DVOA	Offensive DVOA	Defensive DVOA	Special Teams DVOA
New England	22.4% (4)	31.4% (2)	13.6% (6)	-3.4% (11)	5.5% (5)
Baltimore	22.2% (5)	23.0% (5)	9.7% (9)	-4.6% (8)	8.0% (2)

            At first glance, this seems to be a game featuring two evenly matched teams. They ranked 4^th and 5^th in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. When factoring in late season performance, as weighted DVOA does, the Patriots have a more significant advantage. The Patriots feature a better offense, while the Ravens hold slight advantages in defense and special teams. Yet in order to predict how this game may actually turn out we need to go even deeper into the matchups.

THE PATRIOTS ON OFFENSE

	Weighted DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
New England Offense	19.4% (4)	35.0% (5)	-3.6% (14)
Baltimore Defense	-6.1% (13)	5.9% (15)	-19.3% (5)

            Since settling on an offense line with rookie Bryan Stork at center and Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly at the guard positions, following a week four loss to Kansas City, the Patriots offense has taken off. When the Patriots can protect Tom Brady, they can exploit favorable matchups. Whether that is featuring six offensive linemen and running all over the Colts in week 11 or having Tom Brady and company shred the Lions pass defense in week 12. The offensive line will again play the starring role in Saturday’s game. If Baltimore can bring pressure with its four defensive linemen, highlighted by Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Elvis Dumervil, then Brady could be in for a long day. Generating consistent pressure with four linemen would allow Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees to leave seven men back in coverage. These extra defenders could blanket offensive weapons like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Brandon LaFell and cut off Brady’s throwing lanes. This has long been the way to beat Brady or any other of the league’s elite quarterbacks.

            Being able to drop seven men into coverage would also allow Ravens to mask the weakest part of their defense: the secondary. In last week’s game against Pittsburgh, the strong pass rush took pressure off the Ravens depleted defensive backfield. So far this season, the Ravens have lost four different cornerbacks to season ending injuries. Things became so bad that Grantland NFL football writers Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays played a game on their podcast called “Ravens defensive back or actor from The Wire.” If the line can protect Brady, then he should be able to pick apart the Ravens secondary. The key matchup to watch is tight end Rob Gronkowski on safety Will Hill. If Gronk takes off up the seam one on one against Hill, the Ravens are in trouble. The Patriots could create additional pressure by going up-tempo and limiting Baltimore’s ability to substitute its defenders.

THE RAVENS ON OFFENSE

	Weighted DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
Baltimore Offense	6.4% (8)	32.6% (6)	-6.0% (18)
New England Defense	-6.2% (12)	2.0% (12)	-10.4% (14)

            This year the Ravens implemented the zone running game of new coordinator Gary Kubiak. The zone running game and especially the outside zone play is all about lateral movement by the offensive linemen. Instead of stepping forward to block, linemen shift laterally or even take a step backwards in order to gain leverage to push defenders inside. If they can’t push defenders inside, then linemen need to push them towards the sidelines—opening up holes for the running back. This type of offense requires disciplined linemen who will stick to their blocking assignments. It also requires a running back capable of finding the holes opened by his offensive line rather than simply running forward. The zone running game, which Kubiak learned from his time in Denver with Mike Shanahan and Alex Gibbs, seeks to take advantage of undisciplined defenders who will leave their positions and open up holes for the running back.

 Unfortunately for the Ravens, any Bill Belichick coached defense features defenders who stick to their assignments. And the best path to a Ravens victory might be running the ball and keeping their defense on the sidelines. The Patriots, meanwhile, have had success against Kubiak offenses over the years including a 41-28 playoff victory in 2013 a few weeks after a 42-14 blowout victory in December 2012. Additionally in his last 5 games Ravens running back Justin Forsett has produced 71, 48, 19, 119, and 40 yards rushing—hardly the dominating performance needed to beat New England. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco excels at throwing the ball down the field and drawing pass interference penalties on opposing defenders. This Patriots secondary, however, is the best he’s ever faced. Say goodbye to Sterling Moore and Julian Edelman and say hello to Darrel Revis and Brandon Browner. While the Ravens may have a few big plays down field, it may not be enough to overpower this improved Patriots secondary.

SPECIAL TEAMS

(Measured by Expected Points Added)

	Weighted DVOA	FG/XP	KICK	KICK RET	PUNT	PUNT RET
New England	5.8% (7)	10.8 (1)	8.4 (3)	0.5 (13)	-0.6 (18)	8.4 (5)
Baltimore	10.4% (1)	5.3 (7)	8.3 (4)	10.2 (3)	17.9 (1)	-1.9  (14)

            Both teams have excellent kickers and kicking games. The biggest matchup on special teams will be between the Patriots punting team and the Ravens return game led by Jacoby Jones. The Patriots need to keep Jones bottled up and control field position. One good return by Jones can result in great field position or even a special teams touchdown.  Also watch the Patriots on Ravens field goal attempts. They blocked kicks late in the season against the Dolphins and Jets.

THE PICK

            Watch the lines. If the Patriots can give Brady time in the pocket he should be able to take advantage. If the Ravens can establish the run game early and keep Brady on the sidelines, they have a good chance to win. My guess is the Patriots line holds up and gives Brady the time he needs to pick the Ravens apart. Patriots 27, Ravens 20.