Super Bowl XLIX Preview

 SETTING THE CONTEXT

	Total DVOA	Offensive DVOA	Defensive DVOA	Special Teams DVOA
New England	26.7% (3)	16.7% (5)	-4.5% (9)	5.5% (5)
Seattle	30.7% (1)	15.5% (6)	-16.8% (1)	-1.7 (20)

           

            When looking at the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl matchup using Football Outsiders DVOA metric over the full season, Seattle holds a slight, but significant edge over the Patriots. From this perspective, the teams feature similarly talented offenses, but Seattle’s defense is markedly better than New England’s. The Patriots have better special teams, but that cannot make up for the massive defensive gap.

	Weighted DVOA	Weighted Offensive DVOA	Weighted Defensive DVOA	Weighted Special Teams DVOA
New England	39.8% (1)	21.3% (3)	-12.4% (12)	6.1% (7)
Seattle	38.8% (2)	16.0% (4)	-25.2% (1)	-2.4% (17)

           

            If we look at weighted DVOA, which places more emphasis on recent performance, the differences between the two teams almost entirely disappear. The Patriots offense improved as the season went along, separating itself from Seattle’s. Seattle still holds a significant advantage on defense, but the teams are more evenly matched than total DVOA would indicate. Football Outsiders Super Bowl odds, using weighted DVOA, suggest that the game is basically a toss-up; the Patriots have a 50.5% chance of winning against Seattle’s 49.5%. ((FiveThirtyEight similarly sees this as a matchup of two similarly talented teams.)  

            I believe that weighted DVOA is the better indicator of each team’s talent level in this particular circumstance. Early in the season the Patriots started 2-2 before settling on a successful combination of offensive linemen and gradually increased the playing time of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Their later season games are probably more reflective of their true talent level than the earlier ones. Similarly Seattle started 3-2 before trading wide receiver Percy Harvin to the Jets. After Seattle stopped trying to force Harvin into their offensive game plan, their offensive play improved. 

THE PATRIOTS ON OFFENSE

	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
New England Offense	35.0% (5)	-3.6% (14)
Seattle Defense	-9.3% (3)	-25.1 (2)

            The Patriots and Seahawks represent philosophical opposites. The Patriots adjust their game plans, personnel, and strategy based on the strengths and weaknesses of their opponent. They throw the ball 50 times against Baltimore and then run it 40 times the next week against Indianapolis. The Seahawks, however, run a relatively simple defensive scheme and rely on their superior talent to execute it.

Seattle runs a Cover-Three defense (see figure below). Three defenders divide the field into three zones. This conservative style of defense leaves four defenders to rush the passer. The remaining four sit in the middle of the field to take away underneath passes. The Seahawks have found success because of the talent of players like Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas. The Seahawks defensive backs frequently win their individual matchups against opponent’s receivers, taking away the long passing game. This leaves eight other defenders to either stop the run or smother the short passing game. Unfortunately for Seattle’s defense, the Patriots don’t feature a lot of long passes down the field. Sherman will likely spend most of the game on Brandon LaFell, potentially negating the Seahawks’ greatest advantage over the Patriots. According to Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz, from Week 11-17, the Patriots ranked second in rushing DVOA behind only Seattle (the Patriots ranked 32^nd from Weeks 1-9). This jump was sparked by Jonas Gray’s 200 yard game against the Colts and the reacquisition of LeGarrette Blount. Unfortunately for New England, Seattle is also incredibly stout against the running game, ranking 2^nd in run defense DVOA. 

Image from Smart Football 

Like any defensive formation, the Cover Three has a number of exploitable weaknesses. Leaving so many defenders to flood the middle of the field creates opportunities for offenses to stretch the field both vertically and horizontally. The best way to accomplish this is to bunch up receivers at the line of scrimmage. Grouping receivers allows the offense to send them off horizontally across the line of scrimmage or on short curl routes down the field to spread the defense out and open up the field.  So watch for the Patriots to put three wide receivers on one side of the field to overwhelm the Seahawks coverage and complete short, 5-10 yard passes. Additionally look for the Patriots to send Rob Gronkowski down the seam to open up these short routes as well attack the weaker elements of the Seahawks secondary, like corners Jason Lane and Byron Maxwell. The Patriots offensive line will need to provide Tom Brady time in the pocket to exploit mismatches. With the probable return of center Bryan Stork, the Patriots offensive line should be at full strength. The combination of Ryan Wendell, Stork, and Dan Connolly, allowed half of a sack they played together from weeks 5-15 before an injury in Week 16 forced Connolly out of the lineup. Additionally the Seahawks do not feature a strong pass rush. They only sacked opposing quarterbacks on 6.8% of opponent pass attempts, good for 14^th in the NFL. So Brady should have the time he needs to execute the game plan.

THE SEAHAWKS ON OFFENSE

	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
Seattle Offense	19.6% (10)	29.9% (1)
New England Defense	2.0% (12)	-10.4% (14)

            Like the Seattle secondary, New England’s defense backs will largely be wasted on a collection of middling receivers. Darrell Revis will likely match up with Doug Baldwin. Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty will probably take deep threat Jermaine Kearse, leaving penalty machine Brandon Browner to cover tight end Luke Willson. The passing game isn’t the strength of Seattle’s offense anyway. It’s the running game behind Marshawn Lynch and quarterback Russell Wilson. The Seahawks rushing game ranked first in DVOA this season. Lynch ran for 1,306 yards with 13 TDs, good for 4.7 yards per carry. According to advanced metrics, he was the second best back in the NFL with 363 DYAR (explained here). Wilson was also an incredibly effective and efficient runner. He contributed 849 yards on the ground on 118 attempts, good for an astonishing 7.2 yards per carry. He also ran for six touchdowns. His 284 DYAR rushing was nearly twice that of Cam Newton, who finished second among quarterbacks with 146 DYAR.

            The Seahawks employ a zone rushing scheme that has proven especially effective. In the NFC Championship Game, the Seahawks had 7 zone read plays for 28 yards. In the 4^th quarter and overtime, they broke through with 93 yards and two touchdowns on 10 such plays. At its heart, the zone read is a play where the offensive line is responsible for blocking the defenders except for the backside defensive end (see image below). The responsibility of the quarterback is to figure out where this defender is going. If the defensive end attacks the running back, then the quarterback will keep the ball and run with it. If the defensive end holds back or goes after the quarterback then the quarterback simply hands it off. Like the Seahawks defensive philosophy, it is seemingly very simple. Quarterback hands off the ball or keeps it. Yet it is incredibly difficult to defend, especially against skilled and smart players like Wilson and Lynch.

Image from Smart Football

            The Patriots run defense has had problems this year against zone running teams. Baltimore ran 28 times for 136 yards in the Divisional round. Teams like Kansas City, Miami, and Green Bay also use zone blocking principles and have had success against New England this season. As Grantland’s Bill Barnwell has highlighted, the Patriots are seemingly content to allow short yard conversions on 3^rd and 4^th down in order to take away big rushing plays. They haven’t allowed a single rushing play longer than 34 yards all season. Yet like the Patriots running game, their run defense made massive improvements following their week 10 bye. From Weeks 1-9, the Patriots ranked 26^th in the league in run defense according to DVOA. From Weeks 11-17 they ranked 1^st in run defense with -28.2% DVOA. If the Patriots can play up to their post bye level, then they have a chance to stop the Seattle running game.

In order to combat getting nickel and dimed to death by the Seattle running game the Patriots will need to generate pressure to force Wilson into mistakes. The Patriots, however, only sacked opposing QBs on only 6.5% of dropbacks, 19^th in the league. There are, however, some reasons for hope. The Patriots should be able to take advantage of the right side of the Seahawks offensive line. Right tackle Justin Britt allowed 7.5 sacks this season. In the NFC championship game, Julius Peppers frequently beat right guard J.R. Sweezy one on one. Additionally the Patriots will have their best pass rusher, Chandler Jones, healthy. They will also try to bring pressure with A-gap (the space between the center and guards) blitzes from  linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower.

SPECIAL TEAMS

	FG/XP	KICK	KICK RET	PUNT	PUNT RET
New England	10.8 (1)	8.4 (3)	0.5 (13)	-0.6 (18)	8.4 (5)
Seattle	0.8 (13)	4.5 (11)	-7.5 (31)	-4.0 (21)	-2.4 (15)

            The Patriots are better in every area of special teams. Patriots punt returner Julian Edelman averaged 12 yards per return, second in the NFL behind Darren Sproles. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a punt back for a TD. The Patriots also blocked a number of field goals this year. They won’t be caught sleeping if Seattle attempts a fake field goal like they did against the Packers in the NFC Championship game.

THE PICK

            Since the advanced metrics see this game as basically a coin flip, I’m going to go with my heart and pick the Patriots to win, 23-17. 

Into the Woods

On the surface, Disney’s film adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s Into the Woods has all the right elements. It has a top notch cast, an experienced director, and a great staging of the film’s titular woods. When you dig into the themes of the film, however, the truth becomes apparent. Disney and Marshall have taken Sondheim’s musical of existentialist angst and thoroughly and completely neutered it.

            The film boasts an impressive cast of talented actors. Meryl Streep bursts and explodes into her scenes. Her character of the Witch takes special pleasure in scaring and tormenting James Corden’s Baker as he stumbles through the woods. She propels the plot forward, constantly reminding everyone of the film’s ticking clock. Anna Kendrick ably plays the conflicted Cinderella, who dreams of attending of the King’s ball and flees at the first available opportunity. Chris Pine excels as  Cinderella’s dementedly polite Prince Charming. Pine seems better suited to play characters who are slightly off than the straight leading man role of his Star Trek films. The actors mostly perform their songs well and the film’s soundtrack is an easy listen. Rob Marshall has previously directed adaptations of Chicago and Nine, giving him the experience necessary to carry off the musical’s complicated plot. In fairy tales and other literature, weird things happen in the woods. Wolves stalk little girls for lunch. Graves spawn handsome trees. Girls with impossibly long hair live in isolated towers. The film’s set designers have managed to capture this quality, successfully staging the random meetings of the film’s characters.

Sondheim’s original musical offered a mature examination into themes of wishes and loss, sexual anxiety, and guilt. Instead Disney has produced a film that instead winks and nods at Sondheim’s original text. Marshall and Disney present Into the Woods as a tongue and cheek deconstruction of the musical and fairy tale genre. While this deconstruction was a key part of Sondheim musical, it was a means to an end, not the end itself. To take one example, Chris Pine and Billy Magnussen offer a hilariously exaggerated (complete with pelvic thrusts) performance of “Agony.” The song laments the two princes inability to attain their true loves: Cinderella and Rapunzel. The song highlights the absurdity of the fairy tale prince as a character. This, however, is all the film has to offer for their characters. In the second act of the stage show, the princes sing a reprise of “Agony.” Now the princes have gotten the women they love, but lust after two new unattainable women, Snow White and Sleeping Beauty. The second act of musical complicates the idea of “ever after.” It argues that maybe getting the thing you’ve wanted your entire life isn’t really what you want after all. The film completely removes this challenging and morally complicated part of the musical.

Disney has also removed the emotional complexity from the Baker’s Wife (Emily Blunt). In the original stage version, she is a more calculating character, reminding her husband that “if the end is right it justifies the beans.” The moral ambiguity of her character builds in the second act with her sexual encounter with Prince Charming. Her song “Moments in the Woods” highlights her conflicting desires. She dreams of princes and castles, but lives with a baker and her newborn child. She ultimately decides to return to her life with the Baker only to be trampled by a giant. The film retains her awestruck attitude towards royalty, but removes her emotional conflict. This lack of conflict flattens her character and makes her death less dramatically interesting. 

While this criticism may seem pedantic, it highlights the question of why make this version of Into the Woods? If in order to make a palatable family friendly version of Into the Woods requires removing its emotionally affecting content, why make it at all? Why not just select a different play? Haven’t we seen deconstructions of the fairy tale genre on the big screen already? Instead of offering the existentialist questioning of Sondheim’s original musical, Disney has served up a pretty looking, but ultimately shallow adaptation.  

Patriots-Colts Preview

SETTING THE CONTEXT

	Total DVOA	Weighted DVOA	Offensive DVOA	Defensive DVOA	Special Teams DVOA
New England	22.4% (4)	34.1% (2)	13.6% (6)	-3.4% (11)	5.5% (5)
Indianapolis	4.7% (12)	6.1% (13)	-0.9% (17)	-2.3% (13)	3.3% (8)

            Since 2012, the Patriots have won their last three games with the Colts by a combined 78 points. In each of those matchups, the Patriots were the better team. Whether you look at DVOA or weighted DVOA (which places more emphasis on recent games), that trend continues. New England holds the overall edge in offense, defense, and special teams. The Colts’ weaknesses on defense and special teams are small.  The biggest difference is the gulf between the two teams on offense. Now that we’ve outlined the broad strokes, let’s go deeper.

THE PATRIOTS ON OFFENSE

	Weighted DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
New England Offense	21.1% (3)	35.0% (5)	-3.6% (14)
Indianapolis Defense	-10.3% (7)	1.1% (10)	-6.6% (19)

            In Week 11, Patriots running back Jonas Gray ran for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Colts. In last year’s divisional playoff round, LeGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four touchdowns. Stevan Ridley contributed an additional 52 yards and 2 TDs. In those two games the Patriots ran for a combined 480 yards on 90 carries, good for 5.33 yards per carry. There are two personnel changes, one for each team, that might prevent a repeat of these performances on Sunday. First since Week 11, Arthur Jones, a defensive end, has returned to the Colts to help bolster their run defense. Jones provides another lineman for the Colts to potentially clog up running lanes. Second, Patriots center Bryan Stork will sit this week following an injury in last week’s Ravens game. Stork played a key role in the rejuvenated Patriots offense line this season. The loss of Stork led the Patriots to deploy only four offensive linemen during one drive rather than play Stork’s replacement, Josh Kline.

            While these two personnel changes may hurt the Patriots running game, they still have enough offensive weapons to exploit the Colts. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is an effective blocker and pass catcher, making him a match-up nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. On one play he can serve as an additional blocker on running plays and on the next  run up the seam and overwhelm opposing defensive backs. If the Patriots start the game running the ball successfully, the Colts will have to bring in additional defensive linemen and linebackers to stop the run. By putting so many men at the line, the Patriots will be able to take advantage of mismatches in the secondary, like Gronkowski on safety LaRon Landry. If the Colts shift their best corner Vontae Davis to cover Gronk, then that will leave Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Danny Amendola on weaker corners and safeties. And if the Colts blitz, Brady will dump off to Edelman or Shane Vereen out of the backfield. No matter how you divvy it up, the Patriots offense will create mismatches and ruthlessly exploit them.

THE COLTS ON OFFENSE

	Weighted DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
Indianapolis Offense	-5.0% (19)	15.6% (13)	-15.9% (27)
New England Defense	-7.4% (12)	2.0% (12)	-10.4% (14)

            Despite the presence of Andrew Luck, the Colts offense this season ranked below league average. This was mostly due to their horrendously bad running game. The flaws in their running game stemmed from two interrelated decisions. First, that last season Colts GM Ryan Grigson traded a first round pick to the Browns for running back Trent Richardson. The second is why the Colts coaching staff kept handing him the ball in key games. In 15 games this season, Richardson ran 159 times for 519 yards for a pathetic 3.3 yards per carry (perfectly in line with his career average). Only in recent weeks have the Colts woken up to the idea that Richardson is terrible and benched him. While Daniel Herron has replaced Richardson as the starter, he has hardly blown the roof off the doors (H/T Matthew Berry). In last week’s game against the Colts he ran 23 times for 63 yards averaging 2.7 yards per carry. While the Colts will try to establish their running game, it doesn’t seem to have much hope of succeeding.

            The Colts, however, are much better in the passing game. Patriots cornerback Darrell Revis will most likely limit wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will use a combination of Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, and Devin McCourty to blanket Colts receivers Donte Moncrief, Hakim Nicks, and Reggie Wayne. The one area they might be able to exploit the Patriots pass defense is with tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. The Patriots rank 30^th in DVOA against tight ends. Additionally, the Colts offensive line should be able to give Luck plenty of time to complete his passes. The Patriots have not generated much of a pass rush this season, ranking 19^th in adjusted sack rate. Last week, the Ravens managed to keep the Patriots best pass rusher Chandler Jones quiet. If the Colts can give Luck time, he could pick his spots and find open receivers. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

	Weighted DVOA	FG/XP	KICK	KICK RET	PUNT	PUNT RET
New England	5.6% (7)	10.8 (1)	8.4 (3)	0.5 (13)	-0.6 (18)	8.4 (5)
Indianapolis	0.8% (15)	8.4 (4)	4.9 (9)	0.4 (14)	11.2 (6)	-8.5 (31)

            The Patriots hold the advantage in most areas of special teams play except for punting. Colts punter Pat McAfee is perhaps the best punter in the league. He handles the punting and kick-off responsibilities. This could play a key role in the game in deciding field position. The current weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 40s and rain. Slippery conditions could increase the likelihood of turnovers. A fumbled snap on a punt or on a kick return could flip field position and scoring opportunities.

THE PICK

            The Patriots are the better team. And unlike the Ravens, the Colts’ strengths do not create matchup problems for the Patriots. They have no running game and their wide receivers go up against the strength of the Patriots defense: the secondary. Whether running or passing the ball, the Patriots should be able to exploit the Colts defense. Patriots 35, Colts 27.

Patriots-Ravens Preview

The Patriots and Ravens will play on Saturday for the fourth time in the playoffs since 2010. The Ravens hold a 2-1 edge in those matchups. In 2010, the Ravens upset the Patriots 33-14 and in 2013 beat New England 28-13 in the AFC Championship game. In 2012, the Patriots beat Baltimore 23-20 also in the AFC championship game. But the most important question is do these previous matchups have any predictive value for this week’s game?  

            No. The players, some of the coaches, and some of the schemes are all different. Lazy sports writing would have you believe that the Ravens have the key to beating New England or whatever other false narrative you’d like to construct. But the truth of it can be summed up this way: 

 

Moving on.

SETTING THE CONTEXT

	Total DVOA	Weighted DVOA	Offensive DVOA	Defensive DVOA	Special Teams DVOA
New England	22.4% (4)	31.4% (2)	13.6% (6)	-3.4% (11)	5.5% (5)
Baltimore	22.2% (5)	23.0% (5)	9.7% (9)	-4.6% (8)	8.0% (2)

            At first glance, this seems to be a game featuring two evenly matched teams. They ranked 4^th and 5^th in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. When factoring in late season performance, as weighted DVOA does, the Patriots have a more significant advantage. The Patriots feature a better offense, while the Ravens hold slight advantages in defense and special teams. Yet in order to predict how this game may actually turn out we need to go even deeper into the matchups.

THE PATRIOTS ON OFFENSE

	Weighted DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
New England Offense	19.4% (4)	35.0% (5)	-3.6% (14)
Baltimore Defense	-6.1% (13)	5.9% (15)	-19.3% (5)

            Since settling on an offense line with rookie Bryan Stork at center and Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly at the guard positions, following a week four loss to Kansas City, the Patriots offense has taken off. When the Patriots can protect Tom Brady, they can exploit favorable matchups. Whether that is featuring six offensive linemen and running all over the Colts in week 11 or having Tom Brady and company shred the Lions pass defense in week 12. The offensive line will again play the starring role in Saturday’s game. If Baltimore can bring pressure with its four defensive linemen, highlighted by Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Elvis Dumervil, then Brady could be in for a long day. Generating consistent pressure with four linemen would allow Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees to leave seven men back in coverage. These extra defenders could blanket offensive weapons like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Brandon LaFell and cut off Brady’s throwing lanes. This has long been the way to beat Brady or any other of the league’s elite quarterbacks.

            Being able to drop seven men into coverage would also allow Ravens to mask the weakest part of their defense: the secondary. In last week’s game against Pittsburgh, the strong pass rush took pressure off the Ravens depleted defensive backfield. So far this season, the Ravens have lost four different cornerbacks to season ending injuries. Things became so bad that Grantland NFL football writers Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays played a game on their podcast called “Ravens defensive back or actor from The Wire.” If the line can protect Brady, then he should be able to pick apart the Ravens secondary. The key matchup to watch is tight end Rob Gronkowski on safety Will Hill. If Gronk takes off up the seam one on one against Hill, the Ravens are in trouble. The Patriots could create additional pressure by going up-tempo and limiting Baltimore’s ability to substitute its defenders.

THE RAVENS ON OFFENSE

	Weighted DVOA	Passing DVOA	Rushing DVOA
Baltimore Offense	6.4% (8)	32.6% (6)	-6.0% (18)
New England Defense	-6.2% (12)	2.0% (12)	-10.4% (14)

            This year the Ravens implemented the zone running game of new coordinator Gary Kubiak. The zone running game and especially the outside zone play is all about lateral movement by the offensive linemen. Instead of stepping forward to block, linemen shift laterally or even take a step backwards in order to gain leverage to push defenders inside. If they can’t push defenders inside, then linemen need to push them towards the sidelines—opening up holes for the running back. This type of offense requires disciplined linemen who will stick to their blocking assignments. It also requires a running back capable of finding the holes opened by his offensive line rather than simply running forward. The zone running game, which Kubiak learned from his time in Denver with Mike Shanahan and Alex Gibbs, seeks to take advantage of undisciplined defenders who will leave their positions and open up holes for the running back.

 Unfortunately for the Ravens, any Bill Belichick coached defense features defenders who stick to their assignments. And the best path to a Ravens victory might be running the ball and keeping their defense on the sidelines. The Patriots, meanwhile, have had success against Kubiak offenses over the years including a 41-28 playoff victory in 2013 a few weeks after a 42-14 blowout victory in December 2012. Additionally in his last 5 games Ravens running back Justin Forsett has produced 71, 48, 19, 119, and 40 yards rushing—hardly the dominating performance needed to beat New England. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco excels at throwing the ball down the field and drawing pass interference penalties on opposing defenders. This Patriots secondary, however, is the best he’s ever faced. Say goodbye to Sterling Moore and Julian Edelman and say hello to Darrel Revis and Brandon Browner. While the Ravens may have a few big plays down field, it may not be enough to overpower this improved Patriots secondary.

SPECIAL TEAMS

(Measured by Expected Points Added)

	Weighted DVOA	FG/XP	KICK	KICK RET	PUNT	PUNT RET
New England	5.8% (7)	10.8 (1)	8.4 (3)	0.5 (13)	-0.6 (18)	8.4 (5)
Baltimore	10.4% (1)	5.3 (7)	8.3 (4)	10.2 (3)	17.9 (1)	-1.9  (14)

            Both teams have excellent kickers and kicking games. The biggest matchup on special teams will be between the Patriots punting team and the Ravens return game led by Jacoby Jones. The Patriots need to keep Jones bottled up and control field position. One good return by Jones can result in great field position or even a special teams touchdown.  Also watch the Patriots on Ravens field goal attempts. They blocked kicks late in the season against the Dolphins and Jets.

THE PICK

            Watch the lines. If the Patriots can give Brady time in the pocket he should be able to take advantage. If the Ravens can establish the run game early and keep Brady on the sidelines, they have a good chance to win. My guess is the Patriots line holds up and gives Brady the time he needs to pick the Ravens apart. Patriots 27, Ravens 20.