In 2013,
following the return of head coach Sean Payton and the arrival of new defensive
coordinator, Rob Ryan, the New Orleans Saints posted a record of 11-5. In the
playoffs, they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 26-24 before falling 23-15 to the
Seattle Seahawks in the divisional round. The Saints had Super Bowl aspirations
entering 2014. Despite being tight against the salary cap, they resigned tight
end Jimmy Graham to a four year deal and brought in safety Jarius Byrd from the
Bills to bolster their defensive backfield. The moves indicated that the Saints
wanted to win another Super Bowl before the end of quarterback Drew Brees’s
career.
Currently
the Saints’s record is 2-4, second in the NFC South. Three of their losses have
been by a combined six points. In games decided by six points or fewer the
Saints are 1-3. Some of this poor record is simply bad luck—a play or two goes
the other way in any of the Atlanta, Cleveland or Detroit games and suddenly
the Saints are 5-1. But luck isn’t the sole reason for the Saints poor record
through seven weeks. In order to understand where the Saints have faltered this
year, we need to dig a little deeper. So let’s start with their average
production on drives (courtesy of Football
Outsiders).
Saints Drive
Statistics
|
|
Yards/Drive
|
Points/Drive
|
Plays/Drive
|
LOS/Drive
|
|
Offense
|
41.86 (1)
|
2.48 (7)
|
6.81 (1)
|
22.73 (31)
|
|
Defense
|
37.20 (29)
|
2.53 (30)
|
6.47 (29)
|
25.45 (9)
|
The Saints offense has managed the
most yards and plays per drive in the NFL. Yet they are only seventh in points.
Brees’s seven interceptions (more on turnovers later) have contributed to this
lower than expected scoring output. They have also suffered from lousy field
position, 31st in the league. It’s great to have lots of plays and yards,
but it’s hard to convert them into points if you have to traverse the field
much farther than your opponents. And most importantly, for every long drive
the offense manages to string together, the defense gives it right back. Saints
opponents are nearly matching the offense in terms of production. Think of it
this way, this year the Saints offense has played against itself on the other
sideline. It’s hard to win a lot of games that way.
SAINTS ON OFFENSE
While it
would be easy to place the blame for the Saints poor start solely on the
defense, there’s more to the story than that. So let’s go deeper on the Saints
offense.
Saints Overall
Offense 2013 vs. 2014
|
|
Points/Game
|
Yards/Game
|
Adj. Sack Rate
|
Offensive DVOA
|
Pass DVOA
|
Run DVOA
|
|
2013
|
25.9 (10)
|
399.4 (4)
|
5.3% (4)
|
16.0% (5)
|
35.9% (3)
|
-5.3% (19)
|
|
2014
|
25.8 (10)
|
437 (2)
|
2.9% (2)
|
11.8% (7)
|
18.3% (15)
|
10.2% (2)
|
At first
glance, the Saints offense seems to be humming along as usual. They’re scoring
at almost an identical rate as last season. They’re even averaging more yards
per game. The offensive line has kept Brees off his back, allowing sacks on
only 2.9% of his dropbacks. Even their overall offense according to DVOA
(explained here) is similar
to last season. Yet when we look closer at their passing and running games, a
disturbing trend begins to emerge. The passing game that has terrorized
opponents since Sean Payton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans has declined
significantly from last season.
Saints Passing
Offense
|
|
Yards/Game
|
Plays of 20+ Yards
|
Average 20+ Yard Plays/Game
|
Yards per Reception
|
|
2013
|
307.4 (2)
|
67
|
4.1875
|
11.6 (14)
|
|
2014
|
314 (2)
|
18
|
3
|
10.8 (25)
|
The Saints
offense is producing similar yards per game, but the decline stems from the
lack of big plays down the field. Over the Payton-Brees partnership the Saints
have always relied on a balance of short passes to their running backs and wide
receivers and deep throws down the field. The short passes function as an extension
of their running game. They get the ball to their pass catchers in space and
pick up chunks of yardage. Downfield passes prevent teams from stacking the
line of scrimmage and smothering the short passing game. This season the Saints
have largely lacked that deep threat. Their average number of plays 20+ yards
downfield has fallen dramatically and consequently so has their average yards
per reception. Without the threat of quick score on a long pass, the Saints
cannot generate the big scoring plays that build leads and create extra
possessions.
SAINTS ON DEFENSE
Saints Defense 2013
vs. 2014
|
|
DVOA
|
Pass DVOA
|
Run DVOA
|
Points per Game
|
Run Yards per Game
|
Adj. Sack Rate
|
3rd Down Conversions
|
|
2013
|
-5.8% (10)
|
-9.2% (6)
|
-1.5% (20)
|
19.0 (4)
|
111.6 (19)
|
8.6% (4)
|
34.7% (9)
|
|
2014
|
17.7% (32)
|
39.3% (30)
|
-8.6% (16)
|
27.5 (28)
|
103.2 (11)
|
3.6% (29)
|
46.3% (26)
|
The Saints’ defensive decline has
been staggering. A quick look at DVOA reveals where the Saints defense has gone
wrong this year. The Saints front four has generated little pressure on the
quarterback as evidenced by their atrocious adjusted sack rate. Pass rushers
Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallette have failed to build on their breakout from
last year. The inability to pressure the quarterback has exacerbated the
problems in the defensive backfield. The Saints pass defense is similarly
woeful. Last year the defense allowed 194.1 passing yards per game, second in the
league. This year, they rank 28th with 270.5 yards per game. The
defensive backs have been especially burned by opponents’ number one receivers,
allowing 108.2 yards per game compared to only 48.6 last year. Part of this
problem has stemmed from poor play by the defensive backs. Opposing offenses
have repeatedly picked on defensive backs Patrick Robinson and Corey White.
Robinson and White both played extensively last season, but with the departure
of Malcolm Jenkins, Jabari Greer, and Roman Harper have been called on to play
a bigger role in the defense. So far they haven’t been up to the task. The
season ending injury to Jarius Byrd has only worsened the problem. Byrd’s
coverage skills were supposed to meld well with second year safety Kenny
Vaccaro’s run defense. Bad defensive backs are especially deadly in Rob Ryan’s
defensive system.
Rob Ryan Defenses by
DVOA
|
|
DVOA (rank)
|
Pass DVOA (rank)
|
Run DVOA (rank)
|
|
2004 OAK
|
11.5% (26)
|
29.2% (30)
|
-4.6% (15)
|
|
2005 OAK
|
1.9% (20)
|
13.1% (27)
|
-8.5% (14)
|
|
2006 OAK
|
-8.0% (8)
|
-16.1% (4)
|
-1.6% (17)
|
|
2007 OAK
|
5.7% (20)
|
-1.3% (13)
|
11.9% (32)
|
|
2008 OAK
|
3.7% (19)
|
-0.1% (13)
|
6.7% (28)
|
|
2009 CLE
|
16.4% (30)
|
27.1% (28)
|
5.4% (30)
|
|
2010 CLE
|
1.7% (18)
|
4.6% (18)
|
-1.1% (22)
|
|
2011 DAL
|
0.4% (16)
|
8.5% (20)
|
-10.9% (8)
|
|
2012 DAL
|
6.7% (23)
|
16.2% (25)
|
-4.1% (19)
|
|
2013 NO
|
-5.8% (10)
|
-9.2% (6)
|
-1.5% (20)
|
Over his
career as a defensive coordinator, Ryan has predicated his defenses against stopping
the run. By focusing on stopping the run, Ryan likes to put his opponents in
third and long situations, forcing them to pass. In those situations, Ryan can
rely on his defensive creativity to confuse opposing quarterbacks and force
them to make mistakes. As part of his defensive game planning, Ryan, like his
brother, features what is called an “amoeba defense” (it’s also known as a
“psycho front”). Here’s a picture of it below.
This
picture is from the first game of the 2013 season. The amoeba relies on
confusing the opposing quarterback by keeping the defenders moving around,
disguising who will rush the quarterback and who will drop into coverage. Only
one Saints defender (defensive end Cameron Jordan) has his hand on the
ground—the traditional stance for rushing the passer. Everyone else is standing
and able to either rush or drop back depending on the play call. While the
amoeba defense can be quite effective in confusing opposing quarterbacks (the
Ryan brothers have had success against Brees, Brady, and Manning using it), it
is high risk and high reward. The amoeba is particularly susceptible to run
plays and screen passes. In the above situation, the Saints dare the Falcons to
run the ball. They have few defenders in position to stop the run at the line
of scrimmage. Screen passes are also effective because they get the ball out of
the quarterback’s hands quickly and away from the constantly moving defenders.
The amoeba is also less successful when the other components of the defense:
the pass rush, defensive backs are less successful. In order for the amoeba to
be successful, the defense needs to force their opponents into disadvantageous situations.
TURNOVERS
|
|
INT
|
Fumbles
|
Total
|
|
Offense
|
7
|
4
|
11
|
|
Defense
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
|
Turnover Differential
|
|
|
-7
|
The Saints have lost the turnover
battle this season. Some of that is due to bad luck. The Saints defense has forced
four fumbles, but only recovered one of them. Meanwhile opponents have forced
five fumbles and recovered all of them. Additionally Brees has thrown more
interceptions than usual. His TD/INT ratio this year is 1.57, well below his
career average of 2.03. Even worse is that Saints opponents have turned six of
those seven INTs into touchdowns. Some of this turnover luck should even out.
The Saints should recover a few more fumbles and their opponents will recover a
few less.
Overall, the Saints season has been
a combination of poor play and bad luck. The luck should even out, but the poor
play will determine if the Saints can make a run in the weak NFC South.
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