The Case for Stephen Drew

            This offseason the Boston Red Sox extended shortstop Stephen Drew a qualifying contract offer for next season worth $14.1 million dollars and ensured they would receive a compensatory pick in the 2014 amateur draft if Drew signs elsewhere. In early November, Drew declined the offer and entered the free agent market. At present, Drew remains unsigned. I will argue that the Red Sox should resign Drew to a short term contract (one or two years).

             I wrote this post in response to my brother’s fascination with Stephen Drew and the Red Sox “obsession” with him. I hope this post will lay out why I think Drew is a good choice for the Red Sox. My brother also justifiably complains against Stephen Drew wearing the # 7, worn by his brother J.D. during his less than stellar time with the Red Sox. This post, Rob, is for you. 

            Stephen Drew offers above average offensive production for a shortstop his age and experience. First, I offer some blind resumes, from this past season, of American League shortstops of similar age, salary, and major league experience. All of these players debuted between 2005 and 2007. All have played at least 800 games in their careers. Salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, all stats courtesy of Fangraphs

	AVG/OBP/SLG	BB%	K%	wRc+	WAR	Salary (millions)	Dollars *(millions)
Player A	.271/.301/.382	3.9%	10.0%	90	1.6	8.75	8.0
Player B	.253/.333/.443	10.8%	24.8%	109	3.4	9.5	16.9
Player C	.263/.306/.433	5.9%	11.3%	99	3.4	7.416	16.8
Player D	.242/..299/.402	6.2%	20.3%	95	0.6	6.5	2.9

* a Fangraphs statistic that tracks the player’s production in terms of how much it would cost to replace that production on the open market

Player A is Angels shortstop Erick Aybar. Player B is Stephen Drew. Player C is Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy. Finally Player D is Indians shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. So here is the chart again with the names filled in.

	AVG/OBP/SLG	BB%	K%	wRc+	WAR	Salary (millions)	Dollars *(millions)
Aybar	.271/.301/.382	3.9%	10.0%	90	1.6	8.75	8.0
Drew	.253/.333/.443	10.8%	24.8%	109	3.4	9.5	16.9
Hardy	.263/.306/.433	5.9%	11.3%	99	3.4	7.416	16.8
Cabrera	.242/..299/.402	6.2%	20.3%	95	0.6	6.5	2.9

Drew proved the best hitter of the four this past season. He had the highest walk rate, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. He was also the only shortstop to provide above average offensive production (according to wRc+).

Now let us place Drew in the larger context of starting shortstops across the major leagues. Only 24 shortstops in majors logged 400 plate appearances across the 2014 season. Drew finished with the 7^th highest WAR, behind Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Desmond, defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons, Yunel Escobar, Jhonny Peralta, and Jed Lowrie. His walk rate was second to Tulowitzki. His .190 ISO (isolated power) ranked second to Tulowitzki’s .229. His .333 OBP was good for sixth out of the twenty-four qualified shortstops. His 109 wRc+ was seventh. He was also only one seven shortstops to produce a wRc+ above 100—meaning he was only one of the seven to make a positive contribution at the plate. I could offer more stats, but I think the point is clear, Drew is an above average option at short. He is not a superstar hitter like Tulowitzki or an exceptional defender like Simmons or Jose Iglesias. Drew, however, is a good player at a time when those are remarkably difficult to find at shortstop.

            Drew also makes sense for the Red Sox on a one or two year deal to guard against Xander Bogaerts’ potential struggles to adjust to the majors and Will Middlebrooks’s struggles to become a consistent major league hitter. Bogaerts has made a remarkable climb to Boston, culminating in assuming the third base duties for the Red Sox in the playoffs. Bogaerts, only 21, will very likely encounter some struggles in his adjustment to starting in the majors next year. Middlebrooks’s inability to take a walk (5.0% career walk rate) and high strikeout rate (25.5%) prove deeply troubling. Between 2012 and 2013, Middlebrooks has 660 plate appearances, translating roughly to a full major league season, and he has produced an uninspiring .254/.294/.462 slash line. Middlebrooks, however, has hit 32 career home runs. His right-handed power will earn him another shot at the starting third base job next season. The Red Sox will have to hope that continue to tap into that power while reducing his strikeouts and improving his batting eye. Resigning Stephen Drew would mitigate against either Middlebrooks’s continuing hitting difficulties or Bogaerts’s adjustments to playing full time or both. It would allow the Red Sox to have an above average shortstop so they can feel comfortable riding out Bogaerts’s or Middlebrooks’s potential struggles.

            The Red Sox would be wise to bring back Stephen Drew on a short term deal and take advantage of his above average shortstop play. About that #7 though…