Some World Series Thoughts After Game 5

As a team this season, the Cardinals hit .238/.301/.371 (AVG/OBP/SLG) against left-handed pitchers, while hitting .280/.343./412 against right-handers. While they have beaten Craig Breslow like a ragdoll, the Cardinals have failed to hit against Red Sox left-handers Jon Lester and Felix Doubront. Lester and Doubront have combined to throw 20 innings (out of 44.2 thrown by Sox pitching in the series) and only allowed 11 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs. They have struck out 18 of 71 batters for strikeout rate just north of 25%. In 15.1 innings, Lester has walked 1 batter and struck out 15. The Red Sox left-handers dominance over the Cardinal lineup helps explain why the Sox hold a 3-2 series lead heading back to Boston.

While Fox announcers Joe Buck and Tim McCarver have repeatedly mentioned that Red Sox manager John Farrell has left shortstop Stephen Drew, currently mired in a deep slump, in the lineup for his defense, they have failed to mention Drew’s proficiency against right-handed pitching over the course of the season. Drew batted .284/.377/.498 against right-handers with 9 HR, 21 2B, and 7 3B. He averaged 4.1 pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) in the regular season, which if he had enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, would place him 14^th in the majors. Despite his struggles, Drew has continued to work deep into counts and, crucially in the 7^th inning of Game 5, he worked a walk against Adam Wainwright that preceded David Ross’s go-ahead double. Drew is simply a good hitter going through a slump and John Farrell should (and will) continue to stick with him. 

In Games 3-5, Farrell finally returned to his senses and put Daniel Nava in the starting lineup ahead of Jonny Gomes. Nava has been the superior hitter throughout the entire season. Compare their numbers against right-handed pitchers this season.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	P/PA	wRC+
Nava	.322	.411	.484	4.11	146
Gomes	.258	.341	.404	3.87	103

wRC+ is a statistic designed to measure the number of runs a player generates relative to a league average figure of 100 (for a more detailed explanation see http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/). Every percentage point over 100 represents 1% over league average run production. So against right-handers this year, Nava created 46% more runs above the league average and Gomes created just 3%. Farrell’s explanation that he likes the “feel” of the lineup and until Game 2 the Sox were undefeated when Gomes started in the playoffs fails to pass any sort of common sense. Until that point the Red Sox were also undefeated in games that didn’t feature bear attacks, lightning strikes, or unicorn sightings. Nava is the better player and should play ahead of Gomes.

            Some thoughts on the Game 3 obstruction call. Having read up on the rule, I believe Jim Joyce, the third base umpire, made the correct call. I have some questions about the rule itself, especially since once the ball went past Will Middlebrooks there was no way for him to not obstruct the runner. The Red Sox did not lose the game because of that call. There were a host of other bad decisions that led to the Sox loss. Saltalamacchia should have just held the ball and then Uehara could have faced the next batter with two outs and a tie game. Farrell should have brought Uehara into the game much earlier. I would argue that he should have put him into the game in the 7^th inning when Breslow allowed two men to reach base. Or he should have begun the 9^th inning, when Farrell allowed Brandon Workman to bat rather than use Mike Napoli as a pinch hitter and execute a double switch. The obstruction call was a bad outcome generated by a bad series of decisions.

            In Game 5 Mike Matheny damaged his team’s chances of winning the game by batting Shane Robinson second and moving Carlos Beltran to the cleanup spot. As a backup player this season, Robinson hit .250/.345/.319 with a wRC+ of 93 (meaning he was 7% below league average in producing runs), Beltran hit .296/.339/.491 with a wRC+ of 132 (32% above league average). Managers should want their best hitters hitting more often than their worse ones. From Games 1-4, Matheny had done hit Beltran, arguably his best hitter, second in the lineup between Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday. In Game 5, Matheny ignored Robinson’s poor play and focused on getting a speedy runner with the hope of getting him on base in front of Matt Holliday, Beltran, and Yadier Molina. The problem with this swap became most apparent in the 9^th inning when Matheny had to pinch hit for Robinson with the equally weak hitting Jon Jay. Beltran, meanwhile, waited in the on-deck circle as Holliday flied out to right to end the game.

Overall, this series has featured some incredible and memorable games and moments from the obstruction call to Uehara picking off Kolten Wong, from Jonny Gomes's home run to David Ross's double, from John Lackey's relief appearance to Michael Wacha (Wacha) pitching a gem. Game 6 is tomorrow night at Fenway and I can't wait.