Some World Series Thoughts After Game 5

As a team this season, the Cardinals hit .238/.301/.371 (AVG/OBP/SLG) against left-handed pitchers, while hitting .280/.343./412 against right-handers. While they have beaten Craig Breslow like a ragdoll, the Cardinals have failed to hit against Red Sox left-handers Jon Lester and Felix Doubront. Lester and Doubront have combined to throw 20 innings (out of 44.2 thrown by Sox pitching in the series) and only allowed 11 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs. They have struck out 18 of 71 batters for strikeout rate just north of 25%. In 15.1 innings, Lester has walked 1 batter and struck out 15. The Red Sox left-handers dominance over the Cardinal lineup helps explain why the Sox hold a 3-2 series lead heading back to Boston.

While Fox announcers Joe Buck and Tim McCarver have repeatedly mentioned that Red Sox manager John Farrell has left shortstop Stephen Drew, currently mired in a deep slump, in the lineup for his defense, they have failed to mention Drew’s proficiency against right-handed pitching over the course of the season. Drew batted .284/.377/.498 against right-handers with 9 HR, 21 2B, and 7 3B. He averaged 4.1 pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) in the regular season, which if he had enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, would place him 14^th in the majors. Despite his struggles, Drew has continued to work deep into counts and, crucially in the 7^th inning of Game 5, he worked a walk against Adam Wainwright that preceded David Ross’s go-ahead double. Drew is simply a good hitter going through a slump and John Farrell should (and will) continue to stick with him. 

In Games 3-5, Farrell finally returned to his senses and put Daniel Nava in the starting lineup ahead of Jonny Gomes. Nava has been the superior hitter throughout the entire season. Compare their numbers against right-handed pitchers this season.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	P/PA	wRC+
Nava	.322	.411	.484	4.11	146
Gomes	.258	.341	.404	3.87	103

wRC+ is a statistic designed to measure the number of runs a player generates relative to a league average figure of 100 (for a more detailed explanation see http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/). Every percentage point over 100 represents 1% over league average run production. So against right-handers this year, Nava created 46% more runs above the league average and Gomes created just 3%. Farrell’s explanation that he likes the “feel” of the lineup and until Game 2 the Sox were undefeated when Gomes started in the playoffs fails to pass any sort of common sense. Until that point the Red Sox were also undefeated in games that didn’t feature bear attacks, lightning strikes, or unicorn sightings. Nava is the better player and should play ahead of Gomes.

            Some thoughts on the Game 3 obstruction call. Having read up on the rule, I believe Jim Joyce, the third base umpire, made the correct call. I have some questions about the rule itself, especially since once the ball went past Will Middlebrooks there was no way for him to not obstruct the runner. The Red Sox did not lose the game because of that call. There were a host of other bad decisions that led to the Sox loss. Saltalamacchia should have just held the ball and then Uehara could have faced the next batter with two outs and a tie game. Farrell should have brought Uehara into the game much earlier. I would argue that he should have put him into the game in the 7^th inning when Breslow allowed two men to reach base. Or he should have begun the 9^th inning, when Farrell allowed Brandon Workman to bat rather than use Mike Napoli as a pinch hitter and execute a double switch. The obstruction call was a bad outcome generated by a bad series of decisions.

            In Game 5 Mike Matheny damaged his team’s chances of winning the game by batting Shane Robinson second and moving Carlos Beltran to the cleanup spot. As a backup player this season, Robinson hit .250/.345/.319 with a wRC+ of 93 (meaning he was 7% below league average in producing runs), Beltran hit .296/.339/.491 with a wRC+ of 132 (32% above league average). Managers should want their best hitters hitting more often than their worse ones. From Games 1-4, Matheny had done hit Beltran, arguably his best hitter, second in the lineup between Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday. In Game 5, Matheny ignored Robinson’s poor play and focused on getting a speedy runner with the hope of getting him on base in front of Matt Holliday, Beltran, and Yadier Molina. The problem with this swap became most apparent in the 9^th inning when Matheny had to pinch hit for Robinson with the equally weak hitting Jon Jay. Beltran, meanwhile, waited in the on-deck circle as Holliday flied out to right to end the game.

Overall, this series has featured some incredible and memorable games and moments from the obstruction call to Uehara picking off Kolten Wong, from Jonny Gomes's home run to David Ross's double, from John Lackey's relief appearance to Michael Wacha (Wacha) pitching a gem. Game 6 is tomorrow night at Fenway and I can't wait. 

World Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox

STARTERS (All stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

Adam Wainwright — 241.2 IP, 8.16 K/9, 2.55 FIP

Michael Wacha — 64.2 IP, 9.05 K/9, 3.51 FIP

Joe Kelly — 124 IP, 5.73 K/9, 4.01 FIP

Lance Lynn — 201.2 IP, 8.84 K/9, 3.28 FIP

Red Sox

Jon Lester — 213.1 IP, 7.47 K/9, 3.59 FIP

John Lackey — 189.1 IP, 7.65 K/9, 3.86 FIP

Clay Buchholz — 108.1 IP, 7.98 K/9, 2.78 FIP

Jake Peavy — 144.2 IP, 7.53 K/9, 3.14 FIP

The starting rotations provide the starkest contrast of all the categories under analysis. The Cardinals rotation features the best starter in the series, a dominant rookie starter, and two question marks. This season Adam Wainwright produced 6.4 WAR and a 2.55 FIP, good for fourth in the majors. Michael Wacha has pitched brilliantly in the playoffs, with 22 strikeouts in 21 innings. He has only allowed one run and walked just four batters. Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn each have high walk rates and do not match up well against the patient Red Sox lineup. Kelly averaged 3.19 BB/9 and Lynn 3.35 BB/9 and the patient Red Sox hitters should be able to drive up their pitch counts and capitalize on their mistakes.

The Red Sox meanwhile have a stable of consistent starters who pitch deep into games. Since 2008, Jon Lester has averaged 4.6 WAR per season and never pitched fewer than 193.2 innings. John Lackey has driven his walk rate down to 1.9 BB/9 and induced groundballs from 46.8% of opposing hitters. Lackey has kept runners off the basepaths and the ball in the park. Buchholz has struggled to pitch past the 5^th inning since his return from injury. He will start Game 3 in St. Louis and Sox manager John Farrell will lift him for a pinch hitter by the 6^th inning, mitigating his stamina issues. Since coming over from the White Sox, Peavy has been a stable presence at the back of the rotation. He pitched well against Tampa Bay and poorly against Detroit.

Slight Advantage: Cardinals

BULLPENS (All stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

Closer: RHP Trevor Rosenthal — 12.9 K/9, 1.91 FIP

RHP Carlos Martinez — 7.62 K/9, 3.08 FIP

RHP Seth Maness — 5.08 K/9, 3.43 FIP

LHP Kevin Siegrist — 11.34 K/9, 2.29 FIP

LHP Randy Choate  — 7.13 K/9, 2.57 FIP

RHP Shelby Miller — 8.78 K/9, 3.67 FIP

RHP John Axford — 9 K/9, 4.34 FIP

RHP Edward Mujica — 6.4 K/9, 3.71 FIP

Red Sox

Closer: RHP Koji Uehara — 12.23 K/9, 1.61 FIP

RHP Junichi Tazawa — 9.48 K/9, 3.22 FIP

LHP Craig Breslow — 4.98 K/9, 3.60 FIP

RHP Brandon Workman — 10.15 K/9, 3.43 FIP

LHP Franklin Morales — 7.46 K/9, 4.55 FIP

RHP Ryan Dempster — 8.25 K/9, 4.68 FIP

LHP Felix Doubront — 7.71 K/9, 3.78 FIP

Uehara efficiently mowed down Detroit’s lineup in the ALCS. He pitched in multiple innings and consistently throws strikes. He is the best reliever in the series and look for Farrell to aggressively deploy him in the 8^th inning if necessary. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, the Cardinals trio of Rosenthal, Martinez, and Siegrist represent the next three best relievers. Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has employed these three to shut down the Pirates and Dodgers lineups. The strength of the Cardinals starting pitching so far has reduced Matheny’s need to go deep into his pen. Rookie starter Shelby Miller could be called upon if the Red Sox knock out one of the starters early. Get ready for a lot of Randy Choate vs. David Ortiz matchups in the late innings. Red Sox manager John Farrell has largely relied on Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow in high leverage situations. Brandon Workman (with significant help from the belly flopping Prince Fielder) cleaned up the ineffective Franklin Morales’s mess in Game 6.

Advantage: Cardinals

STARTING LINEUPS (All stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

1. 2B Matt Carpenter (L) — .318/.392/.481

2. RF Carlos Beltran (S) — .296/.339/.491

3. LF Matt Holliday (R) — .300/.389/.490

4. 1B Matt Adams (L) — .284/.335/.503

5. DH Allen Craig (R) — .315/.373/.457

6. C Yadier Molina (R) — .319/.359/.477

7. 3B David Freese (R) — .262/.340/.381

8. CF Jon Jay (L) — .276/.351/.370

9. SS Pete Kozma (R) — .217/.275/.273

Red Sox

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L) — .298/.355/.426

2. RF Shane Victorino (R) — .294/.351/.451

3. 2B Dustin Pedroia (R) — .301/.372/.415 

4. DH David Ortiz (L) — .309/.395/.564 

5. 1B Mike Napoli (R) — .259/.360/.482 

6. LF Jonny Gomes (R) — .247/.344/.426  

7. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) — .273/.338/.466

8. SS Stephen Drew (L) — .253/.333/.443, 109

9. 3B Xander Bogaerts (R) — .250/.320/.364

The Red Sox produced a league leading 853 runs and fashioned a .277/.349/.446 batting line as a team. The Cardinals ranked third in the league with 783 runs and a team batting line of .269/.332/.401. The Red Sox feature a deeper lineup with more power. The Red Sox outhomered the Cardinals 178 to 125. The Red Sox led the league in doubles with 363 and the Cardinals ranked second with 325. The Red Sox lack the Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso-sized hole at the bottom of their lineup. The return of Allen Craig will be important for the Cardinals. While Craig may be limited to DH and pinch hitting duties in series, if he can hit like he has throughout the regular season, the gap between the lineups will shrink a bit. If Craig is ineffective and the Cardinals have two holes (and three for Games 3-5) in their lineup, then the Red Sox will maintain the clear advantage.

Advantage: Red Sox

BENCHES (All stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

C Tony Cruz (R)— .203/.240/.293

IF Kolten Wong (L)— .153/.194/.169

IF Daniel Descalso (L)— .238/.290/.366

OF Shane Robinson (R)— .250/.345/.319

Red Sox

C David Ross(R) — .216/.298/.382

1B/OF Mike Carp (L)— .296/.362/.523

3B Will Middlebrooks (R) — .227/.271/.425

OF Daniel Nava (S) — .303/.385/.445

OF Quintin Berry (L) — .625/.667/1.000

            The Red Sox have a significant advantage on the bench. Carp and Nava (assuming Farrell sticks with Gomes as his starter) provide positional flexibility and power off the bench. Farrell can be aggressive with his pinch hitting and pitching changes when the series shifts to St. Louis. The Red Sox also are only carrying 11 pitchers in the shortened series, giving them another bench spot for a specialist like Berry. The Cardinals bench features a group of slap hitting, no walk hitters who don’t offer Mike Matheny any significant pinch hitting options.

Advantage: Red Sox

DEFENSE (Defensive efficiency from http://www.baseball-reference.com/ other stats from http://www.fangraphs.com/)

Cardinals

Defensive Efficiency: .691 (NL League Average .694)

Defensive Runs Saved: -39

Ultimate Zone Rating: -49.4

Red Sox

Defensive Efficiency: .694 (AL League Average .690)

Defensive Runs Saved: 9

Ultimate Zone Rating: 21.6

            While defensive metrics vary wildly from year to year and from stat to stat, the trend that emerges here is clear. The Red Sox carry a slightly above average defense, while the Cardinals have a well-below average difference. Considering the amount of pressure the Red Sox put on opposing teams with their aggressive base running defense could play an important, if unheralded, role in this series.

Advantage: Red Sox

MANAGERS

Mike Matheny, in his second year, has made improvements to his managing. The Cardinals high scoring offense tempered Matheny’s fascination with the sacrifice bunting with his position players (33 last year to 17). This post season the Cardinals starters have gone deep into most games, giving Matheny the opportunity to rely on his top relievers and minimizing the risk of coughing up the lead. It will be interesting to see how Matheny reacts if one of his starters struggles early and he has to rely on the back end of the bullpen.

John Farrell has pressured opposing teams with smart base running, exploiting platoon advantages, and aggressive defensive positioning. The Red Sox stole 123 bases in 142 opportunities, posting a 86.6% success rate. He platooned Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes in left field until this series. He pinch hits with Mike Carp and Gomes in order to gain the platoon edge. He employs a variety of defensive shifts against pull hitters with marked tendencies. Farrell’s performance in Game 6 was a mixed bag, but ultimately the Red Sox pulled out the win. He played Xander Bogaerts over Will Middlebrooks to the team’s benefit.  Starting Gomes over Nava (the better player) throughout the series finally paid off. Shane Victorino’s grand slam in the bottom of the 7^th mitigated the disaster of his bunt in the bottom of the 3rd. A simple glance at a run expectancy chart should be enough to demonstrate the stupidity of a bunt that early in the game. His insistence on using Franklin Morales in Game 6 represented a terrible tactical decision. Morales demonstrated his persistent control issues by walking Prince Fielder and allowing a go ahead single to Victor Martinez. Craig Breslow, who has been effective, would have been a better choice there.

Advantage: Red Sox

Prediction

            The Red Sox and Cardinals split the first two in Boston. After the series shifts to St. Louis, the Red Sox lineup and bench advantages assert themselves and the Red Sox win two of three. They return home to Boston and clinch the series with John Lackey (afterwards basking in all the beer and fried chicken in Boston) on the mound in Game Six.

Red Sox in 6. 

Gravity

The opening titles of Alfonso Cuarón’s newest film Gravity warn that life in space is impossible. The rest of the film puts that thesis to the test as rookie astronaut Ryan Stone (Sandra Bullock) and veteran Matt Kowalski (George Clooney) struggle to survive as a relentless debris storm destroys the space shuttle, and pretty much anything else in orbit capable of supporting life. The plot is straight-forward and psychologically relentless as one disaster after another challenges Stone’s ability and willingness to make it safely to Earth. Cuarón’s Gravity triumphs because of three strengths: its use of space as a setting, the performances of Bullock and Clooney, and Cuarón’s directorial skill.*

While outer space serves as the setting for the film, Gravity continually shifts the film’s focus between shots of Earth and vastness of outer space and the cramped world that Stone inhabits. The opening of the film consists of one extended shot—I’m not sure how long exactly, but it is long. Cuarón lingers on the majesty and loneliness of space as the nervous Stone and the lame humor of Kowalski flutter in and out of view.  After Stone becomes separated from the space shuttle, she drifts off into space, spinning out of control and seemingly lost forever, until Kowalski appears as a growing speck in the distance eventually reining in the wayward astronaut. With these shifts, Gravity evokes Kubrick’s 2001 in depicting the wonder of outer space. Also, not since 2001 has space seemed so empty, vast, and cold.

Bullock and Clooney provide the star power necessary to carry such a straight-forward plot that relies on the audience believing in these characters as people trying to survive in extraordinary circumstances. Clooney carries himself with charm, annoying confidence, and the wisdom of a seasoned veteran (astronaut or actor, it doesn’t really matter). His droll stories and repetition of ordinarily mundane dialogue grows more meaningful with each utterance. His instance that he “has a bad feeling about this mission” becomes more poignant with each rendering. Clooney conveys Kowalski’s confidence and experience with ease and offers a strong counterpoint to Stone’s anxious competence. In Gravity, Bullock gives the performance of her career. Actors rarely win Oscars for their performance (The Blind Side is only bearable because of her, the rest of the film is the worst kind of liberal paternalism that passes as a story of African-American uplift), but Bullock deserves it here. She expertly balances Stone’s abilities and apprehensions. Her physical acting skill shines through in the few scenes outside of her space suit. When Stone seemingly reaches safety inside the International Space Station, she curls up into a fetal position in one of the film’s most beautiful visual moments. Her movement is natural considering her circumstances. Bullock performs the act with a startling compactness. Her body moves with purpose and without waste. It is a simple movement, practiced and executed to perfection, and it embodies the greatness of Gravity.

Cuarón works rarely and chooses his projects carefully and that care pays off in Gravity. His last film, Children of Men, portrays a dystopian film where humanity has lost the ability to reproduce. Never has the future seemed so irreversibly dead. Cuarón’s Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban remains the best of the Harry Potter films. He treats the magic of the Potter universe with respect and captures the growing maturity and sense of impending danger of its characters. He waited until the 3D technology pioneered by James Cameron in Avatar before attempting to make this film. He wisely ignored the advice of studios who wanted to include a countdown clock, flashbacks, and views of a rescue mission. Cuarón, however, kept the focus where it needed to be, on one woman’s awe-inducing journey of survival. In doing so, he offered movie audiences a stunning mediation on grasping life from the jaws of death.

* I would recommend seeing Gravity in IMAX or at least in 3D. Cuarón shot the film in 3-D and unlike most 3D films, the wonder and majesty of the film would be lost without it. 

The Spy Who Came in From the Cold

Over the last several weeks I have been inundated with work and a nasty virus. I am, however, healthy so it's back to blogging. First up is a review of the 1965 film The Spy Who Came in From the Cold. 

            John Le Carré’s spy novels highlight the grimy, mundane, and amoral world of international espionage. His characters, George Smiley, Control, Peter Guillam, Bill Hayden, and Alec Leamus, are all men of a certain (middle) age. They lack the brash confidence of James Bond.  Le Carré’s spies brood and drink. They ponder the meaning of their work over German poets, in the back of London cabs and at their offices deep within the Circus (fictional headquarters of MI-6). They reflect the problems faced by an author who began his life in the intelligence service, but whose identity was revealed by a British double agent and then had to come to terms with his life and work. Le Carré’s best novels, The Spy Who Came in From the Cold and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy provide a taut and suspenseful spy story and mediate on the meaning and purpose of the spy’s craft.

            The film adaptation of The Spy Who Came in From the Cold successfully simplifies Le Carré’s complicated and twisting plot. Richard Burton plays Alec Leamus the head of MI-6’s Berlin Station. The film begins with Leamus waiting at Checkpoint Charlie as one of his agents attempts to cross into West Berlin. The East German police, however, shoot the agent before he can make it to safety. His death ends a string of disasters for Leamus as the East Germans have executed every one of his agents. Control, the head of MI-6, then summons Leamus to London and offers him a chance to “come in from the cold.” Reluctantly leaving the world of spy-craft, Leamus accepts Control’s offer of a job in the banking section. Leamus’s life soon devolves into a drunken stupor as he loses his job with MI-6, gets a temporary job at a library, and eventually agrees to defect to the East Germans. Leamus’s descent into alcoholism and anger serves as cover for a plot to get revenge against Mundt, the head of East German intelligence. Leamus agreed to have a falling out with MI-6 in order to gain the attention of the East Germans. Leamus would then provide enough evidence to convince the East Germans that Mundt was a traitor . Leamus and Control would get revenge for the death of their agents. The film comes to a head as Mundt and Leamus square off in a secret tribunal before the Presidium of the East German Communist Party.  

            Burton’s portrayal Leamus’s disillusionment represents the greatest strength of the film and delivers the film’s themes with brutal realism. He delivers his lines with the right mix of sarcasm and bitterness. Burton’s own difficult life, exacerbated by his drinking, serve him well in playing Leamus’s own trying circumstances.  Burton’s Leamus deftly adjusts to the changing circumstances of his mission as the full-scope of Control’s plot shifts in front of his eyes. He chides his naïve companion, Nan Berry (Claire Bloom), after she expresses shock at the outcome of Control’s plot. Leamus encapsulates the moral ambiguity of Cold War espionage when he remarks to her “Before, he was evil and my enemy; now, he is evil and my friend.” When Nan further questions Leamus’s character and the morality of his actions, he scowls that “I'm a man, you fool. Don't you understand? A plain, simple, muddled, fat-headed human being. We have them in the West, you know.” Burton carries the film as it questions how a simple and flawed human can survive an amoral death struggle between competing and contradictory world powers.  

Up next: Alfonso Cuarón's Gravity.