The 2015 Red Sox So Far

            The 2015 Red Sox are not a good baseball team. In some areas they are perfectly mediocre and in others they have been downright awful. At this point, the Red Sox have played 32 out 162 games or nearly 20% of their season. So let’s look at where the Red Sox season has gone wrong so far. 

Win-Loss Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Win-Loss Record
15-17	140 (12th)	165 (2nd)	-25 (26th)	13-19

            Not good. Not good at all, especially for a team with playoff aspirations. In 2014, the Red Sox under general manager Ben Cherington aggressively sold off assets in order to restock the club for this season. So far that strategy has not paid off. Now let’s turn our attention to the offense, pitching, and defense and see where the Red Sox have played badly and where they might improve.

OFFENSE

	Batting Average	On-base Percentage	Slugging	wRC+	BABIP
Red Sox	.234 (25th)	.319 (15th)	.373 (24th)	92 (20th)	.259 (30th)
League	.251	.316	.395	96	.295

            The only area where the Red Sox rank above the league average is on-base percentage thanks to a combination of high walk rates and a low BABIP. Red Sox batters are walking in ten percent of their plate appearances, good for second in the league. Unfortunately the team’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP)  ranks dead last in the majors. BABIP is at least partially dependent on luck, suggesting that the Red Sox offense may improve due to more balls falling into play and away from the gloves of opposing fielders. Mookie Betts might be the best example of this bad BABIP luck. Currently Betts is hitting .248/.322/.442 good for a 109 wRC+ (9% above league average). But he only has a .252 BAPIP, well below his career average. Betts has walked at 9.5% rate and only struck out in 12.9% of his plate appearances. These underlying numbers suggest that Betts is unlucky rather than struggling in his adjustment to the majors. Dustin Pedroia, meanwhile, has rediscovered his power stroke after several years of battling wrist injuries. He sports an isolated power of .163, the last time Pedroia had an ISO in .160 range was 2012 when he hit fifteen homeruns.  

            Offensively the Red Sox have especially struggled in right field and at first base. Red Sox rightfielders, mostly Shane Victorino, Allen Craig, and Daniel Nava, have combined to produce .186/.288/.251, good for a 54 wRC+ (46% below league average production). Meanwhile Red Sox first basemen (primarily Mike Napoli) have a .163/.287/.298 line with 3 home runs. Their wRC+ of 66 is only 34% below league average. Because of the relative ease of playing first base and outfield, those positions require good hitters. If the Red Sox hope to improve their offense, they’ll need better production from these positions and soon.

PITCHING

	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP
Red Sox	4.91 (29th)	4.29 (22st)	7.65 (15th)	3.43 (25th)	.309 (25th)
League Average	3.95	3.95	7.61	3.04	.292

            The Red Sox pitching staff has struck out opposing hitters at about league rate, but they have one of the worst walk rates in the league. Shockingly the top two Sox starters, Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello have not been bad. Buchholz sports a horrifying 5.73 ERA, but that figure is misleading. His FIP is a much more respectable 3.09. FIP, in case you forgot, focuses on walks, strikeouts, and homeruns—things the pitcher can control. And in those areas Buchholz is excelling. He’s striking out 10.27 batters per nine innings. The reason for his high ERA? It’s our old friend BABIP again: .393. Porcello has a 4.50 ERA, but a FIP of 4.08. He’s strikeout rate of 7.77 is well above his career rate of 5.88. The most likely culprit for the ERA-FIP disparity? A spike in the number of home runs allowed: 12.5% of his flyballs have left the park.

            Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson, however, should be in danger of losing their spots in the rotation. Kelly has simply been unable to control his pitches. In his last start, Kelly walked seven hitters in five and two-thirds innings. Masterson’s command has similarly evaporated as he features a 4.91 BB/9. He has also seen his fastball velocity dip from 93.1 mph in 2013 to 87.8 in 2015. Without the ability to overpower hitters or develop movement in his fastball, Masterson’s starts have become more like batting practice for opposing lineups. Just wait for the 88 mph fastball and enjoy.  

DEFENSE 

            The Red Sox have excelled defensively in recent years, but have struggled this season.  From 2012-2014, the Red Sox were the third best defensive team in baseball according to UZR (ultimate zone rating). This season they rank 25^th with a UZR of -10 (meaning that the defense has cost the team 10 runs, equivalent to one win). According to Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put into play that the defense turns into outs) the Red Sox also rank 25^th, at 69.1%. So what’s changed? The up the middle defense has been fine, with Mookie Betts ranking as Boston’s best defender at 3.2 UZR. New additions Pablo Sandoval, -2.8 UZR, and Hanley Ramirez, -6.6 UZR, have struggled to adjust to Fenway. Ramirez’s UZR/150—a measure that averages defense out over 150 games—is a horrifying -53.4. At his current pace, Ramirez will have cost the Red Sox five wins because of his terrible defense. UZR is probably overstating Ramirez’s struggles—defense metrics are still quite finicky—but just watch him wander around in left and try not to get nostalgic for his Ramirez predecessor: Manny.  

Mike Napoli currently has a UZR of -2.5. If Napoli’s slide continues, the Red Sox might consider sliding Sandoval over to first, putting Hanley at third, and moving Jackie Bradley Jr. or Rusney Castillo to left field? Hanley has played 860.1 innings at third in his career in 2012. He had a UZR of -3.6,  a lot better than his current left field defense. With David Oritz occupying the designated hitter spot, such a radical defensive shift might be the only way to improve the lineup and the defense at the same time.

While the Red Sox season has been a disappointment, the development of Mookie Betts, the top of the rotation, and some luck offer hope for improvement. But if the back end of the rotation continues to struggle, the defense continues to decline, and the Red Sox don’t find some power in the lineup, it will be another long summer at Fenway.

Justified: Final Season

            Throughout its history Justified’s seasons ranged from sensational (seasons two and six) to subpar (season five). Yet the show always maintained a strong hold on its characters and setting. Rural Harlan County, Kentucky hosted the mob and Marshals with equal aplomb. A bevy of notable characters weaved their way in and out of the narrative, from Raylan’s criminal father Arlo to aspiring drug lord Loretta to Dewey Crowe, the malapropism machine. Characters met their fates in a variety of ways from the tragic (Mags Bennett) to the dumb (Danny Crowe) to the explosive (poor Mr. Picker). During its run, Justified showrunner Graham Yost and his staff (and the spirit of Elmore Leonard) questioned whether the show’s three central characters, Raylan, Ava, and Boyd could change their lives and escape the pull of Harlan County.

            The final season revealed that Raylan Givens could leave Harlan behind. He confronted the ghost of his father by breaking into his father’s shed—disappointed when it did not reveal the horrors that he had always imagined. He rid himself of his father’s land and eventually his grave. Raylan even managed to demonstrate the slightest personal growth. In the pilot episode of Justified, Raylan had goaded a Miami gangster into drawing his gun so Raylan could shoot him. In the series finale, Raylan pursued a similar track with Boyd. He demanded that Boyd grab a pistol so Raylan could pull down on him, ending their feud forever. Boyd refused and instead dared Raylan to cross the line from lawman with a code to cold blooded murderer. Raylan refused, instead allowing Boyd to live out the remainder of his life in jail. As the finale jumped ahead it time, Justified wanted to remind the viewer that there was some things Raylan couldn’t change. He had a new hat (won as a result of his confrontation with young gunslinger Boon), but the same attitude. And no matter how hard he tried, he still couldn’t make things work with his ex-wife Winona.  

            Ava Crowder also won a better life for herself. Ava was a survivor. She survived an abusive husband, aspiring outlaw fiancé, and prison (in one of the show’s least advised arcs). When the series began, Ava had just murdered her abusive husband Bowman. The pair had married out of high school and Bowman, a star football player, promised her a life outside of Harlan. Bowman took his failures out on Ava. Ava then dated Raylan and Boyd, plotting a way out of the poverty and violence of Harlan. Continually thwarted in those efforts, Ava, blazed her own path to freedom. In the final season, she shot Boyd, drew on Raylan, and stole ten million dollars in cash. She escaped from Harlan in the back of a pet grooming van. Although Raylan managed to track her down, he let her go, fulfilling his promise, from the end of season five, to keep her (and her son) safe. 

            Boyd meanwhile completed his transformation from criminal for hire to self-styled “outlaw.” As Raylan pointed out in their final scene together, Boyd’s had taken to repeating himself. He began as a preacher and ended as one. Yet Boyd’s journey was a bit more complicated. He began the series by espousing his self-serving belief in white supremacy, but it was only a means to an end. Boyd’s goals were always money, power, and cultivating his own legacy. His exaggerated speaking style, his skill with explosives, and charisma all honed his reputation. Why kill Mr. Picker when you can blow him up in a hotel room in front of Wynn Duffy and Katherine Hale instead? Boyd’s ego allows Raylan to fool him into thinking that Ava has died in the finale. When Boyd questions why Raylan has come to tell him about Ava, Raylan responds that they dug coal together—a common refrain throughout the series. Boyd believes it is this bond, born out of their shared experience and carried out through years of antagonism and a legendary rivalry that brought Raylan to visit him. Viewed through the lens of his own legend, it makes all the sense in the world. Who is the great Raylan Givens without his nemesis Boyd Crowder?

            While it rarely found itself discussed among the rarified air of Breaking Bad, Mad Men, or the other contenders for the “Best Show on TV,” Justified managed to be amusing, entertaining, and heartbreaking. The dialogue crackled. We laughed at the stupidity of Harlan’s criminal element, felt sympathy for Raylan’s colleagues as he piled up body after body, and witnessed the desperation and poverty of Harlan County. And how people like Mags Bennett and Ellstin Limehouse carved out lives for themselves when no one else could be bothered to care. Even at its lowest moments Justified was always fun to watch. And that’s how we should remember it. 

Top Chef: Weakest Winners and Contestants

            Welcome back to my overly nerdy examination into the contestants of Top Chef. Today we’re going to cover some of the weakest winners from the twelve seasons and the weakest overall contestants.

First off let’s have a reminder of our scoring system:

·         4 points for winning the weekly elimination challenge

·         2 points for winning the weekly quickfire challenge

·         2 points for finishing in the top 3 for the elimination challenge

·         -2 points for finishing in the bottom 3 for the elimination challenge

·         -6 points for being eliminated

·         8 points for winning Top Chef

Ranking the Winners

Ranking	Contestant (Season	Elimination Wins	Quickfires	High Finishes	Low Finishes	Total Points	Win %
1	Paul  (9)	8	2	0	1	42	0.37037
2	Richard (8)	4	4	4	1	38	0.266667
T-3	Stephanie (4)	4	2	6	3	34	0.230769
T-3	Michael (6)	3	2	6	1	34	0.185185
T-5	Kristen (10)	4	1	1	0	28	0.185185
T-5	Mei (12)	3	1	5	2	28	0.148148
7	Hung (3)	1	4	5	3	24	0.192308
T-8	Nicholas (11)	3	3	2	5	20	0.2
T-8	Harold (1)	1	2	4	2	20	0.166667
10	Ilan (2)	2	1	2	3	16	0.136364
11	Hosea (5)	2	1	2	4	14	0.11111
12	Kevin (7)	1	1	3	5	10	0.07407

·         The weakest winning chefs have been Kevin Sbraga of Top Chef Washington D.C., Hosea Rosenburg of Top Chef New York, and Ilan Hall of Top Chef Los Angeles. Combined the three chefs won a combined eight challenges. Equaling Richard Blais’s performance during Top Chef All-Stars and only two behind Paul Qui’s dominant run during Top Chef Texas. Their combined point total (40) failed to match Qui’s total output (42).

·         Despite winning the title of Top Chef, both Kevin (10 points) and Hosea (14 points) failed to finish first among the contestants in their respective seasons according to the total points system. Rosenburg finished second behind Stefan Richter.

Contestant (Season-Finish)	Elimination Wins	Quickfires	High Finishes	Low Finishes	Total Points	Win %
Stefan (5-3)	4	4	2	3	16	0.296296
Hosea (5-1)	2	1	2	4	14	0.11111

·         Sbraga, meanwhile finished a remarkable third in total points, behind both Ed Cotton and Tiffany Derry (remember this scoring system includes a + 8 bonus for winning Top Chef and a -6 for failing to win). Derry managed to capture first place, by never finishing in the bottom except the episode in which she was eliminated.

Contestant (Season-Finish)	Elimination Wins	Quickfires	High Finishes	Low Finishes	Total Points	Win %
Tiffany (7-5)	2	2	5	0	16	0.148148
Ed (7-2)	3	3	3	2	14	0.222222
Kevin (7-1)	1	1	3	5	10	0.07407

Weakest Contestants

            Now that we’ve looked at the weakest winners, let’s take a gander at the weakest contestants overall. According to the points system, the weakest contestants are not necessarily the ones eliminated in the first few episodes. The points system rewards (or punishes) the chefs who hang around the bottom, failing to produce good dishes, but not being so bad as to be eliminated. So let’s get to it.

Contestant (Season-Finish)	Elimination Wins	Quickfires	High Finishes	Low Finishes	Total Points
Jose (9-7)	0	1	0	6	-16
Lisa (4-2)	1	0	1	6	-12
Ash (6-9)	0	0	0	3	-12
Stephen (7-9)	0	0	0	3	-12

·         Josie Smith-Malave appeared on Top Chef twice. First as a contestant in Top Chef Los Angeles (season 2), when she was eliminated in a team challenge in the fifth episode. She scored -4 for that season, having finished in the top once.

·         Smith-Malave’s time on Top Chef Seattle (season nine) proved controversial as her consistently poor performances left her on the verge of elimination a record tying six times. In the season’s Restaurant Wars episode, the judges shockingly sent eventually winner Kristen Kish home over Smith-Malave. As executive chef of the restaurant, Kish accepted responsibility for Smith-Malave’s poor dish. Kish won Last Chance Kitchen and reentered the competition before winning the finale.

·         Similarly Lisa Fernandes of Top Chef Chicago carved out perhaps the most unlikely path to the finale. In the season’s twelfth episode, head judge Tom Colicchio pointed out to Fernandes that she and fellow contestant Spike Mendelsohn were frequent visitors to the elimination block. Yet Fernandes continually eked by, her dishes were always just good enough.  

And that brings us to the end of our examination of the contestants in the history of Top Chef. Perhaps I’ll return to this data at a later point or not. But next time I’ll have thoughts on the series finale of Justified.