The 2015
Red Sox are not a good baseball team. In some areas they are perfectly mediocre
and in others they have been downright awful. At this point, the Red Sox have
played 32 out 162 games or nearly 20% of their season. So let’s look at where
the Red Sox season has gone wrong so far.
|
Win-Loss Record
|
Runs Scored
|
Runs Allowed
|
Run Differential
|
Pythagorean Win-Loss Record
|
|
15-17
|
140 (12th)
|
165 (2nd)
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-25 (26th)
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13-19
|
Not good.
Not good at all, especially for a team with playoff aspirations. In 2014, the
Red Sox under general manager Ben Cherington aggressively sold off assets in
order to restock the club for this season. So far that strategy has not paid
off. Now let’s turn our attention to the offense, pitching, and defense and see
where the Red Sox have played badly and where they might improve.
OFFENSE
|
|
Batting Average
|
On-base Percentage
|
Slugging
|
wRC+
|
BABIP
|
|
Red Sox
|
.234 (25th)
|
.319 (15th)
|
.373 (24th)
|
92 (20th)
|
.259 (30th)
|
|
League
|
.251
|
.316
|
.395
|
96
|
.295
|
The only
area where the Red Sox rank above the league average is on-base percentage
thanks to a combination of high walk rates and a low BABIP. Red Sox batters are
walking in ten percent of their plate appearances, good for second in the
league. Unfortunately the team’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) ranks dead last in the majors. BABIP is at
least partially dependent on luck, suggesting that the Red Sox offense may
improve due to more balls falling into play and away from the gloves of
opposing fielders. Mookie Betts might be the best example of this bad BABIP
luck. Currently Betts is hitting .248/.322/.442 good for a 109 wRC+ (9% above
league average). But he only has a .252 BAPIP, well below his career average.
Betts has walked at 9.5% rate and only struck out in 12.9% of his plate
appearances. These underlying numbers suggest that Betts is unlucky rather than
struggling in his adjustment to the majors. Dustin Pedroia, meanwhile, has
rediscovered his power stroke after several years of battling wrist injuries.
He sports an isolated power of .163, the last time Pedroia had an ISO in .160
range was 2012 when he hit fifteen homeruns.
Offensively
the Red Sox have especially struggled in right field and at first base. Red Sox
rightfielders, mostly Shane Victorino, Allen Craig, and Daniel Nava, have
combined to produce .186/.288/.251, good for a 54 wRC+ (46% below league
average production). Meanwhile Red Sox first basemen (primarily Mike Napoli)
have a .163/.287/.298 line with 3 home runs. Their wRC+ of 66 is only 34% below
league average. Because of the relative ease of playing first base and
outfield, those positions require good hitters. If the Red Sox hope to improve
their offense, they’ll need better production from these positions and soon.
PITCHING
|
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
BABIP
|
|
Red Sox
|
4.91 (29th)
|
4.29 (22st)
|
7.65 (15th)
|
3.43 (25th)
|
.309 (25th)
|
|
League Average
|
3.95
|
3.95
|
7.61
|
3.04
|
.292
|
The Red Sox
pitching staff has struck out opposing hitters at about league rate, but they
have one of the worst walk rates in the league. Shockingly the top two Sox
starters, Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello have not been bad. Buchholz sports a
horrifying 5.73 ERA, but that figure is misleading. His FIP is a much more
respectable 3.09. FIP, in case you forgot, focuses on walks, strikeouts, and
homeruns—things the pitcher can control. And in those areas Buchholz is
excelling. He’s striking out 10.27 batters per nine innings. The reason for his
high ERA? It’s our old friend BABIP again: .393. Porcello has a 4.50 ERA, but a
FIP of 4.08. He’s strikeout rate of 7.77 is well above his career rate of 5.88.
The most likely culprit for the ERA-FIP disparity? A spike in the number of home
runs allowed: 12.5% of his flyballs have left the park.
Joe Kelly
and Justin Masterson, however, should be in danger of losing their spots in the
rotation. Kelly has simply been unable to control his pitches. In his last start,
Kelly walked seven hitters in five and two-thirds innings. Masterson’s command
has similarly evaporated as he features a 4.91 BB/9. He has also seen his
fastball velocity dip from 93.1 mph in 2013 to 87.8 in 2015. Without the
ability to overpower hitters or develop movement in his fastball, Masterson’s
starts have become more like batting practice for opposing lineups. Just wait
for the 88 mph fastball and enjoy.
DEFENSE
The Red Sox
have excelled defensively in recent years, but have struggled this season. From 2012-2014, the Red Sox were the third
best defensive team in baseball according to UZR (ultimate zone rating). This
season they rank 25th with a UZR of -10 (meaning that the defense
has cost the team 10 runs, equivalent to one win). According to Defensive Efficiency
(the percentage of balls put into play that the defense turns into outs) the
Red Sox also rank 25th, at 69.1%. So what’s changed? The up the middle
defense has been fine, with Mookie Betts ranking as Boston’s best defender at
3.2 UZR. New additions Pablo Sandoval, -2.8 UZR, and Hanley Ramirez, -6.6 UZR,
have struggled to adjust to Fenway. Ramirez’s UZR/150—a measure that averages
defense out over 150 games—is a horrifying -53.4. At his current pace, Ramirez will
have cost the Red Sox five wins because of his terrible defense. UZR is
probably overstating Ramirez’s struggles—defense metrics are still quite
finicky—but just watch him wander around in left and try not to get nostalgic
for his Ramirez predecessor: Manny.
Mike Napoli currently has a UZR of
-2.5. If Napoli’s slide continues, the Red Sox might consider sliding Sandoval
over to first, putting Hanley at third, and moving Jackie Bradley Jr. or Rusney
Castillo to left field? Hanley has played 860.1 innings at third in his career in
2012. He had a UZR of -3.6, a lot better
than his current left field defense. With David Oritz occupying the designated
hitter spot, such a radical defensive shift might be the only way to improve
the lineup and the defense at the same time.
While the Red Sox season has been a
disappointment, the development of Mookie Betts, the top of the rotation, and
some luck offer hope for improvement. But if the back end of the rotation
continues to struggle, the defense continues to decline, and the Red Sox don’t
find some power in the lineup, it will be another long summer at Fenway.
